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J Alcamo GJJ Kreileman JC Bollen GJ van den Born R Gerlagh MS Krol AMC Toet HJM de Vries 《Global Environmental Change》1996,6(4):261-303
This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE 2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change Indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. The scenarios indicate that the coming decades could be a period of relatively rapid global environmental change as compared to the period before and after. The natural vegetation in industrialized regions could be threatened by climate change, but abandonment of agricultural lands could also make new lands available for reforestation and revegetation. The opposite is true for most of Asia and Africa. Here the impacts of climate change on vegetation may not be as significant as in temperate climates, but the demand for food will lead to a significant expansion of agricultural lands at the expense of remaining forests and other natural areas. 相似文献
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F Forget L Dagorn B Mérigot JC Gaertner J Robinson PD Cowley 《African Journal of Marine Science》2020,42(2):247-254
Owing to difficulties in accessing the vast open ocean, the beta (β) diversity of pelagic fish assemblages remains poorly studied. We investigated the relationship between assemblage similarity and geographical distance between anchored fish aggregating devices (FADs), sampled by standardised underwater visual censuses in three anchored FAD arrays in the Indian Ocean—at the Maldives, the Seychelles and Mauritius. The use of two complementary indices of β-diversity, based on presence/absence data (Jaccard similarity coefficient) and abundance data (Bray–Curtis index), revealed that geographical distance between sampling sites (from 4 to 257 km) appeared to have no effect on the similarity of fish assemblages associated with FADs within each array. The results of this preliminary study question the generalisation of the paradigm of an increase in β-diversity with geographic distance to the open-ocean fish community. Large-scale studies using a variety of datasets should be conducted to further investigate patterns of β-diversity in the open ocean. 相似文献