The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordl  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):349-363

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.  相似文献   

Erratum to: The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordli  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):365-367

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A new geospatial overlay method for the analysis and visualization of spatial change patterns using object-oriented data modeling concepts     

Dirk Tiede 《制图学和地理信息科学》2014,41(3):227-234

Traditional geographic information system (GIS)-overlay routines usually build on relatively simple data models. Topology is – if at all – calculated on the fly for very specific tasks only. If, for example, a change comparison is conducted between two or more polygon layers, the result leads mostly to a complete and also very complex from–to class intersection. A lot of additional processing steps need to be performed to arrive at aggregated and meaningful results. To overcome this problem a new, automated geospatial overlay method in a topologically enabled (multi-scale) framework is presented. The implementation works with polygon and raster layers and uses a multi-scale vector/raster data model developed in the object-based image analysis software eCognition (Trimble Geospatial Imaging, Munich, Germany). Advantages are the use of the software inherent topological relationships in an object-by-object comparison, addressing some of the basic concepts of object-oriented data modeling such as classification, generalization, and aggregation. Results can easily be aggregated to a change-detection layer; change dependencies and the definition of different change classes are interactively possible through the use of a class hierarchy and its inheritance (parent–child class relationships). Implementation is exemplarily shown for a change comparison of CORINE Land Cover data sets. The result is a flexible and transferable solution which is – if parameterized once – fully automated.  相似文献   

Suitability of Existing Numerical Model Codes and Thermodynamic Databases for the Prognosis of Calcite Dissolution Processes in Near-Surface Sediments Due to a CO2 Leakage Investigated by Column Experiments     

Christoph Haase  Andreas Dahmke  Markus Ebert  Dirk Schäfer  Frank Dethlefsen 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2014,20(6):639-661

Among the risks of CO₂ storage is the potential of CO₂ leakage into overlaying formations and near-surface potable aquifers. Through a leakage, the CO₂ can intrude into protected groundwater resources, which can lead to groundwater acidification followed by potential mobilisation of heavy metals and other trace metals through mineral dissolution or ion exchange processes. The prediction of pH buffer reactions in the formations overlaying a CO₂ storage site is essential for assessing the impact of CO₂ leakages in terms of trace metal mobilisation. For buffering the pH-value, calcite dissolution is one of the most important mechanisms. Although calcite dissolution has been studied for decades, experiments conducted under elevated CO₂ partial pressures are rare. Here, the first study for column experiments is presented applying CO₂ partial pressures from 6 to 43 bars and realising a near-natural flow regime. Geochemical calculations of calcite dissolution kinetics were conducted using PHREEQC together with different thermodynamic databases. Applying calcite surface areas, which were previously acquired by N₂-BET or calculated based on grain diameters, respectively, to the rate laws according to Plummer et al. (Am J Sci 278:179–216, doi:10.2475/ajs.278.2.179, 1978) or Palandri and Kharaka (US Geol Surv Open file Rep 2004–1068:71, 2004) in the numerical simulations led to an overestimation of the calcite dissolution rate by up to three orders of magnitude compared to the results of the column experiments. Only reduction of the calcite surface area in the simulations as a fitting procedure allowed reproducing the experimental results. A reason may be that the diffusion boundary layer (DBL), which depends on the groundwater flow velocity and develops at the calcite grain surface separating it from the bulk of the solution, has to be regarded: The DBL leads to a decrease in the calcite dissolution rate under natural laminar flow conditions compared to turbulent mixing in traditional batch experiments. However, varying the rate constants by three orders of magnitudes in a field scale PHREEQC model simulating a CO₂ leakage produced minor variations in the pH buffering through calcite dissolution. This justifies the use of equilibrium models when calculating the calcite dissolution in CO₂ leakage scenarios for porous aquifers and slow or moderate groundwater flow velocities. However, the selection of the thermodynamic database has an impact on the dissolved calcium concentration, leading to an uncertainty in the simulation results. The resulting uncertainty, which applies also to the calculated propagation of an aquifer zone depleted in calcite through dissolution, seems negligible for shallow aquifers of approximately 60 m depth, but amounts to 35 % of the calcium concentration for aquifers at a depth of approximately 400 m.  相似文献   

Variscan orogeny in Corsica: new structural and geochronological insights,and its place in the Variscan geodynamic framework     

Michel Faure  Philippe Rossi  Julien Gaché  Jérémie Melleton  Dirk Frei  Xianhua Li  Wei Lin 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(6):1533-1551

In Western Corsica, remnants of pre-batholitic lithological and metamorphic assemblages are preserved as km-scale septa enclosed within Lower Carboniferous to Early Permian plutons. Two groups of septa were recognized: (1) the Argentella and Agriates-Tenda fragments correspond to Neoproterozoic rocks deformed and metamorphosed during the Cadomian–Panafrican orogeny, and (2) the Zicavo, Porto-Vecchio, Solenzara–Fautea, Belgodère, Topiti, and Vignola fragments consist of Variscan metamorphic rocks. The lithological content and the main ductile deformation events for each septum are presented. In the Zicavo, Porto-Vecchio, and Topiti septa, a top-to-the-SW ductile shearing (D1 event) coeval with an amphibolite facies metamorphism is responsible for crustal thickening at ca 360 Ma. This main event was preceded by eclogite and granulite facies metamorphic events preserved as restites within migmatites dated at ca 345–330 Ma. A top-to-the-SE ductile shearing (D2 event) coeval with the crustal melting accommodated the exhumation of the D1 event. In contrast, the Belgodère segment is peculiar as it exhibits a top-to-the-E vergence, although retrogressed high-pressure rocks are also recognized. The pre-Permian fragments are arranged in four NW–SE-striking stripes that define a SW–NE zoning with (1) a Western domain in Topiti, Vignola, Zicavo, Porto-Vecchio, and Solenzara–Fautea; (2) a Neoproterozoic basement with its unconformable Early Paleozoic sedimentary cover in Argentella; (3) an Eastern metamorphic domain in Belgodère; (4) another Neoproterozoic basement with its Upper Paleozoic sedimentary cover in Agriates-Tenda. The Argentella basement is separated from the Western and Eastern domains by two sutures: S1 and S2. The Variscan Corsica represents the Eastern part of the Sardinia–Corsica–Maures segment. The comparison of this segment with other Variscan domains allows us to propose some possible correlations. We argue that the Western domain, Argentella, Belgodère, and Agriates-Tenda domains can be compared with the Southern Variscan belt exposed in French Massif Central–Southern Massif Armoricain, Armorica microblock, Léon block, respectively.  相似文献