2014—2016年数值降水预报在天津的检验评估     

王万筠  殷海涛  赵敬红  窦策伟 《气象科技》2018,46(4):718-723

对2014—2016年中国国家气象中心T639数值预报、日本细网格数值预报、欧洲中心细网格(EC thin)数值预报以及天津市乡镇指导预报产品中在天津地区降水预报分别进行检验。结果表明:所有模式降水的晴雨预报准确率均随预报时效的延长而下降。降水预报准确率在秋冬春季的预报效果明显好于夏季。EC thin产品在冬季降水的预报中优势更为明显,而指导预报及T639对5月、6月及9月天津地区局地降水多发期的降水更有指示意义。针对2014—2016年天津地区的23个暴雨日按影响系统分型并统计检验结果,暴雨日降水预报晴雨成绩较好有参考价值,而降水分级检验偏差较大。相对于局地性暴雨过程,区域性的暴雨过程数值预报有更为可靠的参考性。  相似文献   

Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yujie Liu  Qiaomin Chen  Quansheng Ge  Junhu Dai  Yue Dou 《Climatic change》2018,150(3-4):273-287

Phenological changes in crops affect efficient agricultural production and can be used as important biological indicators of local and regional climate change. Although crop phenological changes and their responses to climate change, especially temperature, have been investigated, the impact of agronomic practice such as cultivar shifts and planted date changes on crop phenology remains unclear. Here, we used a long-term dataset (1981–2010) of wheat phenology and associated local weather data from 48 agro-meteorological stations in four temperature zones in China to analyze phenological changes of spring and winter wheat. Trend analysis method was used to estimate changes in the date of growth stages and the duration of growth phases, while sensitivity analysis method was used to qualify the response of growth phase duration to mean temperature (T_mean), total precipitation (PRE), and total sunshine duration (SSD). Using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-wheat model, we isolated the impacts of climate change, cultivar selection, and sowing date on phenological change of wheat. Results show that phenological changes were greatest in the warm-temperate zone. Sensitivity analysis indicates that growth phase duration was generally negatively related to T_mean and positively related to PRE and SSD. The positive sensitivity response to T_mean occurred in the tillering to jointing and sowing to maturity growth periods in the warmer temperature zones, suggesting that warmer temperatures during the overwintering period hampered effective vernalization in winter wheat. Modeling results further indicate that reductions in wheat growth duration caused by climate change could be offset by the introduction of new cultivars with high thermal requirements and accelerated with delayed sowing date.  相似文献   

大同第四纪火山群的活动特点     

Zhang Shimin Dou Suqin 《地壳构造与地壳应力文集》1997,(1)

一、引言大同第四纪火山群位于山西省大同县和阳高县境内(图1),包括近5年来在大峪口,秋林地区首次发现的6个小火山。该火山群大、小火山共计31个。大同火山群南以六棱山北麓断裂为界,分布于大同盆地东部的第四纪沉积区范围。火山群南侧的六棱山和北部的小北山是由前寒武花岗片麻岩组成的山地。  相似文献   

鱼类的耳石信息分析及生活史重建——理论、方法与应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

窦硕增 《海洋科学集刊》2007,(48):93-113

耳石(Otolith)是硬骨鱼类(Teleosts)在生长过程中沉积在内耳中的结石,主要矿物成分是CaCO3起声音接收和平衡定向作用。其内部轮纹(日轮Daily ring或年轮Annul ring)像在其他海洋动物特定钙化组织(如瓣鰓类外壳、珊瑚骨骼、多毛类颌骨、乌贼内壳、哺乳动物牙齿)中的轮纹一样随鱼类的发育而生长,并沉积着现场水环境中的主要化学元素。由于在形成过程中其轮纹形态结构与化学组成相当稳定,记录了鱼类个体生活过程中丰富的生物物理化学环境信息,所以,耳石信息分析可以揭示鱼类的生活史及其所经历的环境变化。在目前,耳石信息分析的应用涵盖了鱼类生态学研究的诸多方面,如鱼类的孵化和早期发育生长、产卵场和产卵期判定、仔鱼的运输过程(Larval transportation、年龄鉴定与种群鉴定(Age determination & population discrimination)、个体迁移(Migration)等。近年来,随着相关科学和技术的发展,它已经成为一种揭示鱼类生活史、生活史重建(Recastruction of life history)以及海洋环境域变(Regime shift)的关键技术,也是国际上渔业科学和海洋环境科学的研究热点。过去10年内三次国际鱼类耳石学术会议的成功举办(1993 Maryland-USA，Secor et al,1995a，1998- Bergen-Norway Fossum et al,2000；2004- Townsville Australia Begg et al,2005)大大推进了该研究领域的发展。其研究方向主要包括年龄鉴定与验证、显微结构分析(Microstructure)和微化学分析(Microchemistry)(Stevenson et al.,1992 ；Secor et al..1995a， Fossum et.al, 2000； Campana 1999， 2001； Elsdon et al, 2003a, b；Begg et al, 2005 )等。  相似文献   

Morphodynamic Characteristics and Medium-Term Simulation of the North—South Passage Under the Impact of the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Navigation Channel Project   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jiao  Jian  Dou  Xi-ping  Gao  Xiang-yu  Ding  Lei  Yang  Xiao-yu 《中国海洋工程》2020,34(2):198-209

The morphological evolution characteristics of the North-South Passage area since the construction of the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Navigation Channel Project(DNCP) are analyzed on the basis of the measured data. A twodimensional morphodynamics numerical model of the Yangtze Estuary is established to verify the morphological evolution of the North-South Passage under the influence of the DNCP and to predict the future evolution in the next 40 years. Data analysis shows that the North Passage has experienced rapid adjustment stages and adaptive stages after the construction of the DNCP. Slow erosion occurred along the main channel, and slow siltation could be observed in the area between the groins. The South Passage showed a state of upper section erosion and down section deposition. At present, the whole South Passage is in a slight erosion state. According to the numerical model, the eroding and silting speed of the North Passage will slow down in the future. The present state that erosion occurs in the main channel and siltation occurs between the groins will continue. The South Passage will still maintain upper section erosion and down section deposition in the future. Due to the main channel erosion of the North Passage and siltation of the South Passage, the sediment division ratio of the North Passage will increase in the future but still be smaller than 50%. After morphological evolution of 40 years, the direction of residual sediment transport caused by M2 and M4 tidal components in the North Passage has not changed, but the transport rate will decrease. It is considered that the morphological evolution of the North-South Passage could reach a relatively stable state after 40 years.  相似文献   

Fault linkage patterns and their control on the formation of the petroleum systems of the Erlian Basin, Eastern China     

Lirong Dou  Liang Chang 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2003,20(10):1213-1224

Fault linkage patterns in rift basins are very common. While the process of fault linkage may be very short, it changes sedimentation patterns before and after linkage and controls the development of half-grabens. The propagation and growth of boundary faults can be divided into a simple fault propagation pattern and a fault growth-linkage pattern. Based on structural style, sedimentation patterns and oil-source correlations in the Erlian Basin, three types of grabens and petroleum systems can be identified. The Abei graben is controlled by a single boundary fault and forms an independent petroleum system. The Saihantala graben is controlled by several linked faults, which also has an independent petroleum system. The Wuliyasitai Depression controlled by two boundary fault segments which results in two petroleum systems. As not all half-grabens develop one petroleum system; they may, therefore, have two or more systems. The relay ramps between fault segments before linkage are the locations of deposition of sands and conglomerates, and consequently, are the focus areas for stratigraphic–lithologic trap exploration.  相似文献   

A finite element model of circulation in shallow water with moving boundary on tidal-flat     

Zhang Cunzhi  Yang Lianwu  Dou Zhenxing 《海洋学报(英文版)》1990,9(2):173-186

To examine the circulation in shallow water with tidal flat, a finite element model for the numerical solution of the shallow water equations was developed by means of standard Galerkin's method. The domain computed was covered with triangular finite elements, and water elevation and velocity were approximated by linear interpolation functions, and the lumped coefficients were used to substitute for solving the high order algebraic equation system. The time-dependent land-water boundary changes are treated mathematically by interrelating the location of the land-water boundary with the instantaneous tidal level. The implicit scheme was adopted for the terms of the bottom friction and the Coriolis effect in the motion equation so that the numerical stability of the model has been improved.The model was applied to the tidal current on shoaling water with large tidal flat off Pikou, and a comparison between observed and calculated values showed good agreement, the flow pattern being reproduced. The result  相似文献   

重排藿烷:示踪油藏充注途径的分子标志物          下载免费PDF全文

李威  窦立荣  文志刚  张光亚  程顶胜  刘爱香  客伟利 《地球科学》2021,46(7):2507-2514

基于C₃₀重排藿烷（C₃₀DH）和C₃₀藿烷（C₃₀H）热稳定性差异,研究了C₃₀DH/C₃₀H作为油气运移方向和充注途径的可行性.结果发现:C₃₀DH结构稳定性高于C₃₀H,C₃₀DH/C₃₀H参数具有成熟度属性;同时对比分析C₃₀DH/C₃₀H参数与咔唑类参数的相关性,认为两者之间正相关性明显,表明C₃₀DH/C₃₀H参数不仅是良好的热成熟度参数还是良好的石油充注运移参数.M油田位于Fula凹陷东部,M油田原油为弱氧化-还原、淡水-微咸水环境下低等藻类与高等植物混源生成,属于同一族群原油.利用C₃₀DH/C₃₀H参数示踪Fula凹陷M油田石油充注方向,油气运移途径主要为自北向南,同时还发育自西向东的运移途径;咔唑类参数也验证了C₃₀DH/C₃₀H参数示踪油气运移的准确性.结果表明C₃₀DH/C₃₀H参数是示踪石油充注途径的有效参数.   相似文献   

大数据时代数字化城市管理智慧应用实践     

吴江寿  王洪深  张洁 《地理信息世界》2015,(3)

首先介绍了全国数字化城市管理事业和大数据技术发展现状,并结合"互联网+"时代技术发展趋势和全国智慧城市建设浪潮,开展基于城市管理综合数据的智慧应用研究,提升城市现代化治理能力和公共服务水平,为推动"数字城管"向"智慧城管"发展演变提供借鉴参考。  相似文献   

河南省日照时数时空变化分析   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

焦建丽  康雯瑛  王军  窦红影 《气象与环境科学》2008,31(Z1)

根据河南省60个测站1965-2006 的年、季日照时数资料,分析河南省日照时数的时空变化,并对气候突变进行滑动t检验,结果显示:河南省日照时数空间分布由南向北递增,日照时数随时间变化呈下降趋势,1981年为日照时数发生突变的开始年,空气污染是日照时数下降的主要原因之一.  相似文献