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This study examines the roles of the multi-physics approach in accounting for model errors for typhoon forecasts with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). Experiments with forecasts of Typhoon Conson (2010) using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model show that use of the WRF’s multiple physical parameterization schemes to represent the model uncertainties can help the LETKF provide better forecasts of Typhoon Conson in terms of the forecast errors, the ensemble spread, the root mean square errors, the cross-correlation between mass and wind field as well as the coherent structure of the ensemble spread along the storm center. Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model show that the optimum number of the multi-physics ensemble is roughly equal to the number of combinations of different physics schemes assigned in the multi-physics ensemble. Additional idealized experiments with the Lorenz 40-variable model to isolate the dual roles of the multi-physics ensemble in correcting model errors and expanding the local ensemble space show that the multi-physics approach appears to be more essential in augmenting the local rank representation of the LETKF algorithm rather than directly accounting for model errors during the early cycles. The results in this study suggest that the multi-physics approach is a good option for short-range forecast applications with full physics models in which the spinup of the ensemble Kalman filter may take too long for the ensemble spread to capture efficiently model errors and cross-correlations among model variables. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT An attempt is made to explain the relationship of landslides to litho-tectonic and precipitation regimes. The possible influence of these factors on the dimensional pattern of landslides is also inferred. The Yamuna River valley, NW Himalaya, which traverses the Higher Himalaya (HH) and Lesser Himalaya (LH) rock mass, endures disastrous landslides and hence is taken as the case for study. To achieve the objectives, proxies like stream length gradient, topographic profile, steepness index, and ratio of valley floor width to valley height were used to infer a spatially varying tectonic regime, whereas rainfall data and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index were used to determine spatial differences in precipitation and vegetation variability, respectively. Dimensional patterns of landslides utilized the landslide area and volume. The higher reaches of the HH and lowest part of the LH show rockfall dominance associated with relatively high tectonic activity, whereas most of the debris slides coincide with regional thrusts. Total area and volume occupied by the landslides are ~1.5 ± 0.16 × 106 m2 and ~4.7 ± 1.2 × 106 m3, respectively. Dimensions of debris slides were found to be less influenced by the litho-tectonic and precipitation regimes, whereas the dimensions of rockfalls were found to be more sensitive to these conditions. 相似文献
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Aziz Ghaderpour Khairul Nazrin Mohd Nasori Li Lee Chew Ving Ching Chong Kwai Lin Thong Lay Ching Chai 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014
The deltaic estuarine system of the Matang Mangrove Forest Reserve of Malaysia is a site where several human settlements and brackish water aquaculture have been established. Here, we evaluated the level of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and the presence of potentially pathogenic bacteria in the surface water and sediments. Higher levels of FIB were detected at downstream sampling sites from the fishing village, indicating it as a possible source of anthropogenic pollution to the estuary. Enterococci levels in the estuarine sediments were higher than in the surface water, while total coliforms and E. coli in the estuarine sediments were not detected in all samples. Also, various types of potentially pathogenic bacteria, including Klebsiella pneumoniae, Serratia marcescens and Enterobacter cloacae were isolated. The results indicate that the Matang estuarine system is contaminated with various types of potential human bacterial pathogens which might pose a health risk to the public. 相似文献
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G. Balmino J. Barriot R. Koop B. Middel N. C. Thong M. Vermeer 《Journal of Geodesy》1991,65(4):218-229
At different European institutes software has been developed for evaluation of the gravitational potential of the Earth using high degree spherical harmonic expansions. In this report the results of a comparison of a number of these software packages are presented. We compared the results for the second order derivatives (gravity gradients). It appeared that one of the most critical points in these computations is the definition of the coordinates, which should be as accurate as possible. Machine dependency and algorithm setup were of less importance, the former being only reflected in CPU timing results. 相似文献
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The seismic reflection method provides high-resolution data that are especially useful for discovering mineral deposits under deep cover. A hindrance to the wider adoption of the seismic reflection method in mineral exploration is that the data are often interpreted differently and independently of other geophysical data unless common earth models are used to link the methods during geological interpretation. Model-based inversion of post-stack seismic data allows rock units with common petrophysical properties to be identified and permits increased bandwidth to enhance the spatial resolution of the acoustic-impedance model. However, as seismic reflection data are naturally bandlimited, any inversion scheme depends upon an initial model, and must deal with non-unique solutions for the inversion. Both issues can be largely overcome by using constraints and integrating prior information. We exploit the abilities of fuzzy c-means clustering to constrain and to include prior information in the inversion. The use of a clustering constraint for petrophysical values pushes the inversion process to select models that are primarily composed of several discrete rock units and the fuzzy c-means algorithm allows some properties to overlap by varying degrees. Imposing the fuzzy clustering techniques in the inversion process allows solutions that are similar to the natural geologic patterns that often have a few rock units represented by distinct combinations of petrophysical characteristics. Our tests on synthetic models, with clear and distinct boundaries, show that our methodology effectively recovers the true model. Accurate model recovery can be obtained even when the data are highly contaminated by random noise, where the initial model is homogeneous, or there is minimal prior petrophysical information available. We demonstrate the abilities of fuzzy c-means clustering to constrain and to include prior information in the acoustic-impedance inversion of a challenging magnetotelluric/seismic data set from the Carlin Gold District, USA. Using fuzzy c-means guided inversion of magnetotelluric data to create a starting model for acoustic-impedance proved important in obtaining the best result. Our inversion results correlate with borehole data and provided a better basis for geological interpretation than the seismic reflection images alone. Low values of the acoustic impedance in the basement rocks were shown to be prospective by geochemical analysis of rock cores, as would be predicted for later gold mineralization in weak, decalcified rocks. 相似文献
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AbstractEnvironmental challenges in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta characterized by adverse impacts of climate change, upstream hydropower development and localized dyke expansion present imperatives for rural farmers to “learn to adapt.” However, little is known about how learning contributes to improving their capacity in adapting to these “wicked” problems. This study investigates potential effects of farmers’ learning on their adaptive capacity, utilizing nine focus group discussions, 33 interviews, and a structured survey of 300 farmers. The exploratory factor analysis produced two factors for social learning: (1) learning through social interactions and (2) self-reflection, and one factor for adaptive capacity. The regression results show that the social learning factors have significantly positive effects on adaptive capacity. Farmers with a higher level of social learning are likely to demonstrate higher adaptive capacity. The findings call for policy considerations to promote learning in a broader context of the delta to enhance local capacity. 相似文献
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Imtiwapang Aier M. Pradipchandra Singh Glenn T. Thong Soibam Ibotombi 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(3):1347-1363
Part of Merhülietsa colony of Kohima town and the national highway passing through it was devastated by a landslide on May
13, 2007. This unstable zone affected by rotational failure lies in the Disang sediments comprising shale with intercalations
between thin-bedded siltstone and fine-grained sandstone. The shales are sheared, crumpled, and weathered to a high degree.
This is attributed to a strike-slip fault and two shear fractures. Geotechnical analysis was carried out in the area and a
factor of safety of 0.60 obtained for the slide mass. Similar work is extended to the surrounding area which had developed
tension fractures. A slip circle drawn from tension cracks helps define future failure planes. A factor of safety of 0.93
is obtained indicating the possibility of progression of the slide zone. Rock mass rating of the shales surrounding the slide
zone indicates poor rock condition, pointing to danger of collapse with further progression of the slide zone. 相似文献
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Chanh Q. Kieu 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2012,115(1-2):47-56
The radius of the maximum tangential wind (RMW) associated with the hurricane primary circulation has been long known to undergo continuous contraction during the hurricane development. In this study, we document some characteristic behaviors of the RMW contraction in a series of ensemble real-time simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) and in idealized experiments using the Rotunno and Emanuel (Mon Weather Rev 137:1770–1789, 1987) axisymmetric hurricane model. Of specific interest is that the contraction appears to slow down abruptly at the middle of the hurricane intensification, and the RMW becomes nearly stationary subsequently, despite the rapidly strengthening rotational flows. A kinematic model is then presented to examine such behaviors of the RMW in which necessary conditions for the RMW to stop contracting are examined. Further use of the Emanuel’s (J Atmos Sci 43:585–605, 1986) analytical hurricane theory reveals a connection between the hurricane maximum potential intensity and the hurricane eye size, an issue that has not been considered adequately in previous studies. 相似文献
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Chanh Kieu 《大气科学进展》2016,33(8):987-995
The merging of multiple vortices is a fundamental process of the dynamics of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans. In this study, the interaction of like-signed vortices is analytically and numerically examined in a framework of two-dimensional inviscid barotropic flows. It is shown that barotropic vortex interaction turns out to be more intricate than simple merging scenarios often assumed in previous studies. Some particular configurations exist in which the vortex merging process is never complete despite strong interaction of like-signed vortices, regardless of the strengths or distances between the vortices. While the conditions for a complete vortex merging process introduced in this study appear to be too strict for most practical applications, this study suggests that careful criteria for vortex mergers should be properly defined when simulating the interaction of vortices, because the merging may not always result in a final enhanced circulation at the end of the interaction, as usually assumed in the literature. 相似文献