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11.
Konstantinos Leptokaropoulos Eleftheria Papadimitriou Beata Orlecka-Sikora Vasileios Karakostas 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(3):1817-1842
The spatio-temporal variation in seismicity in western Turkey since the late 1970s is investigated through a rate/state model, which considers the stressing history to forecast the reference seismicity rate evolution. The basic catalog was divided according to specific criteria into four subsets, which correspond to areas exhibiting almost identical seismotectonic features. Completeness magnitude and reference seismicity rates are individually calculated for each subset. The forecasting periods are selected to be the inter-seismic time intervals between successive strong (M ≥ 5.8) earthquakes. The Coulomb stress changes associated with their coseismic slip are considered, along with the constant stressing rate to alter the rates of earthquake production. These rates are expressed by a probability density function and smoothed over the study area with different degrees of smoothing. The influence of the rate/state parameters in the model efficiency is explored by evaluating the Pearson linear correlation coefficient between simulated and observed earthquake occurrence rates along with its 95 % confidence limits. Application of different parameter values is attempted for the sensitivity of the calculated seismicity rates and their fit to the real data to be tested. Despite the ambiguities and the difficulties involved in the experimental parameter value determination, the results demonstrate that the present formulation and the available datasets are sufficient enough to contribute to seismic hazard assessment starting from a point such far back in time. 相似文献
12.
The current study deals with a parameterization of diapycnal diffusivity in an ocean model. The parameterization estimates the diapycnal diffusivity depending on the location of tidal-related energy dissipation over rough topography. The scheme requires a bottom roughness map that can be chosen depending on the scales of topographic features. Here, we implement the parameterization on an ocean general circulation model, and we examine the sensitivity of the modeled circulations to different spatial scales of the modeled bottom roughness. We compare three simulations that include the tidal mixing scheme using bottom roughness calculated at three different ranges of spatial scales, with the largest scale varying up to 200 km. Three main results are discussed. First, the dependence of the topographic spectra with depth, characterized by an increase in spectral energy over short length scales in the deep ocean, influences the vertical profile of the diffusivity. Second, the changes in diffusivities lead to different equilibrium solutions in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and bottom circulation. In particular, the lower cell of the Atlantic overturning and the bottom water transport in the Pacific Ocean are stronger for stronger diffusivities at the corresponding basins and depths, and the strongest when using the small-scale roughness map. Third, a comparison of the density fields of the three simulations with the density field of World Ocean Atlas dataset, from which the models are initialized, shows that among the simulations with three different roughness maps, the one using small-scale bottom roughness map has the smallest density bias.
相似文献13.
Evolution of the stress field in the northern Aegean Sea (Greece) 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
14.
Christos Kourouklas Eleftheria Papadimitriou George Tsaklidis Vassilios Karakostas 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(5):1225-1246
The determination of strong earthquakes’ recurrence time above a predefined magnitude, associated with specific fault segments, is an important component of seismic hazard assessment. The occurrence of these earthquakes is neither periodic nor completely random but often clustered in time. This fact in connection with their limited number, due to shortage of the available catalogs, inhibits a deterministic approach for recurrence time calculation, and for this reason, application of stochastic processes is required. In this study, recurrence time determination in the area of North Aegean Trough (NAT) is developed by the application of time-dependent stochastic models, introducing an elastic rebound motivated concept for individual fault segments located in the study area. For this purpose, all the available information on strong earthquakes (historical and instrumental) with Mw ≥ 6.5 is compiled and examined for magnitude completeness. Two possible starting dates of the catalog are assumed with the same magnitude threshold, Mw ≥ 6.5 and divided into five data sets, according to a new segmentation model for the study area. Three Brownian Passage Time (BPT) models with different levels of aperiodicity are applied and evaluated with the Anderson–Darling test for each segment in both catalog data where possible. The preferable models are then used in order to estimate the occurrence probabilities of Mw ≥ 6.5 shocks on each segment of NAT for the next 10, 20, and 30 years since 01/01/2016. Uncertainties in probability calculations are also estimated using a Monte Carlo procedure. It must be mentioned that the provided results should be treated carefully because of their dependence to the initial assumptions. Such assumptions exhibit large variability and alternative means of these may return different final results. 相似文献
15.
Fotini E. Stamati Nikolaos P. Nikolaidis Danae Venieri Eleftheria Psillakis Nicolas Kalogerakis 《Applied Geochemistry》2011
Soil degradation in the Mediterranean and other arid and semi-arid regions of the world is caused mainly by cultivation and grazing. A consequence of de-vegetation due to overgrazing has been a decrease in organic matter (litter) input to soil and a decrease of aggregate size and stability making soils more susceptible to erosion and to organic matter losses. This study provided evidence linking the Dissolved Organic Nitrogen (DON) export from river basins to livestock grazing intensity and the resulting decrease in vegetation. Koiliaris River Basin in Crete was selected to study the effects of livestock grazing on water quality because it offers a unique morphologic situation due to its karstic hydrogeology draining the upland grazing areas through karstic springs. Mass balance calculations of N loads indicated that organic N is behaving as a conservative substance. It is postulated that the two potential mechanisms of Mineralization–Immobilization-Turnover and Direct Uptake did not operate in the degraded soils of the karst and arguments are presented justifying the hypothesis. De-vegetated soils of the area had lower C and N content, the same bacterial count, but lower microbial activity, lower fungi counts and species richness and lower mineralizable N compared to naturally vegetated soils. DON was the predominant N species in both extracted soluble N pools. De-vegetated soils had lower decomposition potential compared to vegetated soils. Mineralization and plant uptake appeared to be restricted and leaching of soluble low aromaticity organic matter was favored. A linear relationship between DON export and livestock N load was obtained for five Greek basins suggesting a mechanism that operates on regional scales. The de-vegetation of grazing lands in Koiliaris River highland calcaric leptosols was shown to be a primary factor causing the decline of soil biochemical quality and DON can be used as a reliable indicator for livestock grazing impacts to soil biochemical quality. 相似文献
16.
Gerardo Herrera Rosa María Mateos Juan Carlos García-Davalillo Gilles Grandjean Eleftheria Poyiadji Raluca Maftei Tatiana-Constantina Filipciuc Mateja Jemec Auflič Jernej Jež Laszlo Podolszki Alessandro Trigila Carla Iadanza Hugo Raetzo Arben Kociu Maria Przyłucka Marcin Kułak Michael Sheehy Xavier M. Pellicer Charise McKeown Graham Ryan Veronika Kopačková Michaela Frei Dirk Kuhn Reginald L. Hermanns Niki Koulermou Colby A. Smith Mats Engdahl Pere Buxó Marta Gonzalez Claire Dashwood Helen Reeves Francesca Cigna Pavel Liščák Peter Pauditš Vidas Mikulėnas Vedad Demir Margus Raha Lídia Quental Cvjetko Sandić Balazs Fusi Odd Are Jensen 《Landslides》2018,15(2):359-379
Landslides are one of the most widespread geohazards in Europe, producing significant social and economic impacts. Rapid population growth in urban areas throughout many countries in Europe and extreme climatic scenarios can considerably increase landslide risk in the near future. Variability exists between European countries in both the statutory treatment of landslide risk and the use of official assessment guidelines. This suggests that a European Landslides Directive that provides a common legal framework for dealing with landslides is necessary. With this long-term goal in mind, this work analyzes the landslide databases from the Geological Surveys of Europe focusing on their interoperability and completeness. The same landslide classification could be used for the 849,543 landslide records from the Geological Surveys, from which 36% are slides, 10% are falls, 20% are flows, 11% are complex slides, and 24% either remain unclassified or correspond to another typology. Most of them are mapped with the same symbol at a scale of 1:25,000 or greater, providing the necessary information to elaborate European-scale susceptibility maps for each landslide type. A landslide density map was produced for the available records from the Geological Surveys (LANDEN map) showing, for the first time, 210,544 km2 landslide-prone areas and 23,681 administrative areas where the Geological Surveys from Europe have recorded landslides. The comparison of this map with the European landslide susceptibility map (ELSUS 1000 v1) is successful for most of the territory (69.7%) showing certain variability between countries. This comparison also permitted the identification of 0.98 Mkm2 (28.9%) of landslide-susceptible areas without records from the Geological Surveys, which have been used to evaluate the landslide database completeness. The estimated completeness of the landslide databases (LDBs) from the Geological Surveys is 17%, varying between 1 and 55%. This variability is due to the different landslide strategies adopted by each country. In some of them, landslide mapping is systematic; others only record damaging landslides, whereas in others, landslide maps are only available for certain regions or local areas. Moreover, in most of the countries, LDBs from the Geological Surveys co-exist with others owned by a variety of public institutions producing LDBs at variable scales and formats. Hence, a greater coordination effort should be made by all the institutions working in landslide mapping to increase data integration and harmonization. 相似文献
17.
Eleftheria Papadimitriou Dragomir Gospodinov Vassilis Karakostas Anastasios Astiopoulos 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(2):735-752
A multiplet of moderate-magnitude earthquakes (5.1?≤?M?≤?5.6) took place in Zakynthos Island and offshore area (central Ionian Islands, Greece) in April 2006. The activity in the first month occupied an area of almost 35 km long, striking roughly NNW–SSE, whereas aftershocks continued for several months, decaying with time but persisting at the same place. The properties of the activated structure were investigated with accurate relocated data and the available fault plane solutions of some of the stronger events. Both the distribution of seismicity and fault plane solutions show that thrusting with strike-slip motions are both present in high-angle fault segments. The segmentation of the activated structure could be attributed to the faulting complexity inherited from the regional compressive tectonics. Investigation of the spatial and temporal behavior of seismicity revealed possible triggering of adjacent fault segments that may fail individually, thus preventing coalescence in a large main rupture. In an attempt to forecast occurrence probabilities of six of the strong events (M w?≥?5.0), estimations were performed following the restricted epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, applied to data samples before each one of these strong events. Stochastic modeling was also used to identify “quiescence” periods before the examined aftershocks. In two out of the six cases, real aftershock rate did decrease before the next strong shock compared to the modeled one. The latter results reveal that rate decrease is not a clear precursor of strong shocks in the swarm and no quantitative information, suitable to supply probability gain, could be extracted from the data. 相似文献
18.
Fatal landslides in Europe 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
Ubydul Haque Philipp Blum Paula F. da Silva Peter Andersen Jürgen Pilz Sergey R. Chalov Jean-Philippe Malet Mateja Jemec Auflič Norina Andres Eleftheria Poyiadji Pedro C. Lamas Wenyi Zhang Igor Peshevski Halldór G. Pétursson Tayfun Kurt Nikolai Dobrev Juan Carlos García-Davalillo Matina Halkia Stefano Ferri George Gaprindashvili Johanna Engström David Keellings 《Landslides》2016,13(6):1545-1554
Landslides are a major hazard causing human and large economic losses worldwide. However, the quantification of fatalities and casualties is highly underestimated and incomplete, thus, the estimation of landslide risk is rather ambitious. Hence, a spatio-temporal distribution of deadly landslides is presented for 27 European countries over the last 20 years (1995–2014). Catastrophic landslides are widely distributed throughout Europe, however, with a great concentration in mountainous areas. In the studied period, a total of 1370 deaths and 784 injuries were reported resulting from 476 landslides. Turkey showed the highest fatalities with 335. An increasing trend of fatal landslides is observed, with a pronounced number of fatalities in the latest period from 2008 to 2014. The latter are mostly triggered by natural extreme events such as storms (i.e., heavy rainfall), earthquakes, and floods and only minor by human activities, such as mining and excavation works. Average economic loss per year in Europe is approximately 4.7 billion Euros. This study serves as baseline information for further risk mapping by integrating deadly landslide locations, local land use data, and will therefore help countries to protect human lives and property. 相似文献
19.
Onur Tan Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou Zumer Pabucçu Vassilis Karakostas Ahmet Yörük Kostas Leptokaropoulos 《Acta Geophysica》2014,62(6):1283-1309
A detailed investigation of microseismicity and fault plane solutions are used to determine the current tectonic activity of the prominent zone of seismicity near Samos Island and Kusadasi Bay. The activation of fault populations in this complex strike-slip and normal faulting system was investigated by using several thousand accurate earthquake locations obtained by applying a double-difference location method and waveform cross-correlation, appropriate for areas with relatively small seismogenic structures. The fault plane solutions, determined by both moment tensor waveform inversions and P-wave first motion polarities, reveal a clear NS trending extension direction, for strike slip, oblique normal and normal faults. The geometry of each segment is quite simple and indicates planar dislocations gently dipping with an average dip of 40–45°, maintaining a constant dip through the entire seismogenic layer, down to 15 km depth. 相似文献
20.
Eleftheria Exarchou Jin Song von Storch Johann H. Jungclaus 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(10-12):1545-1563
The current study deals with a parameterization of diapycnal diffusivity in an ocean model. The parameterization estimates the diapycnal diffusivity depending on the location of tidal-related energy dissipation over rough topography. The scheme requires a bottom roughness map that can be chosen depending on the scales of topographic features. Here, we implement the parameterization on an ocean general circulation model, and we examine the sensitivity of the modeled circulations to different spatial scales of the modeled bottom roughness. We compare three simulations that include the tidal mixing scheme using bottom roughness calculated at three different ranges of spatial scales, with the largest scale varying up to 200?km. Three main results are discussed. First, the dependence of the topographic spectra with depth, characterized by an increase in spectral energy over short length scales in the deep ocean, influences the vertical profile of the diffusivity. Second, the changes in diffusivities lead to different equilibrium solutions in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and bottom circulation. In particular, the lower cell of the Atlantic overturning and the bottom water transport in the Pacific Ocean are stronger for stronger diffusivities at the corresponding basins and depths, and the strongest when using the small-scale roughness map. Third, a comparison of the density fields of the three simulations with the density field of World Ocean Atlas dataset, from which the models are initialized, shows that among the simulations with three different roughness maps, the one using small-scale bottom roughness map has the smallest density bias. 相似文献