The quasi-biennial oscillation in a warmer climate: sensitivity to different gravity wave parameterizations     

Sebastian Schirber  Elisa Manzini  Thomas Krismer  Marco Giorgetta 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(3-4):825-836

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Accounting for soil parameter uncertainty in a physically based and distributed approach for rainfall‐triggered landslides          下载免费PDF全文

E. Arnone  Y. G. Dialynas  L. V. Noto  R. L. Bras 《水文研究》2016,30(6):927-944

In this study we propose a probabilistic approach for coupled distributed hydrological‐hillslope stability models that accounts for soil parameters uncertainty at basin scale. The geotechnical and soil retention curve parameters are treated as random variables across the basin and theoretical probability distributions of the Factor of Safety (FS) are estimated. The derived distributions are used to obtain the spatio‐temporal dynamics of probability of failure, in terms of parameters uncertainty, conditioned to soil moisture dynamics. The framework has been implemented in the tRIBS‐VEGGIE (Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)‐based Real‐time Integrated Basin Simulator‐VEGetation Generator for Interactive Evolution)‐Landslide model and applied to a basin in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (Puerto Rico) where shallow landslides are common. In particular, the methodology was used to evaluate how the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation, whose variability is significant over the basin, affect the distribution of probability of failure, through event scale analyses. Results indicate that hyetographs where heavy precipitation is near the end of the event lead to the most critical conditions in terms of probability of failure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics in the supra‐mediterranean belt of the Nebrodi Mountains (Sicily,Italy)     

Martina Bisculm  Daniele Colombaroli  Elisa Vescovi  Jacqueline F. N. van Leeuwen  Paul D. Henne  Julian Rothen  Giovanni Procacci  Salvatore Pasta  Tommaso La Mantia  Willy Tinner 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(7):687-698

High‐resolution pollen, macrofossil and charcoal data, combined with accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dating and multivariate analysis, were used to reconstruct Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics at Urio Quattrocchi, a small lake in the supra‐mediterranean belt in the Nebrodi Mountains of Sicily (Italy). The data suggest that after 10 000 cal a BP increasing moisture availability supported closed forests with deciduous (Quercus cerris, Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus spp.) and evergreen (Quercus ilex) species. Species‐rich closed forest persisted until 6850 cal a BP, when Neolithic activities caused a forest decline and affected plant diversity. Secondary forest with abundant Ilex aquifolium recovered between 6650 and 6000 cal a BP, indicating moist conditions. From 5000 cal a BP, agriculture and pastoralism led to the currently fragmented landscape with sparse deciduous forests (Quercus cerris). The study suggests that evergreen broadleaved species were more important at elevations above 1000 m a.s.l. before ca. 5000 cal a BP than subsequently, which might reflect less human impact or warmer‐than‐today climatic conditions between 10 000 and 5000 cal a BP. Despite land use since Neolithic times, deciduous supra‐mediterranean forests were never completely displaced from the Nebrodi Mountains, because of favourable moist conditions that persisted throughout the Holocene. Reconstructed vegetation dynamics document the absence of any pronounced mid‐ or late‐Holocene ‘aridification’ trend at the site, an issue which is controversially debated in Italy and the Mediterranean region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geology and paleomagnetism of El Potrero pluton, Baja California: Understanding criteria for timing of deformation and evidence of pluton tilt during batholith growth     

Gabriel Chvez Cabello  Roberto Molina Garza  Luis Delgado Argote  Rubn Contreras Flores  Elisa Ramírez  Amabel Ortega Rivera  Harald Bhnel  James Lee 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(1-2):1-17

The 102 Ma El Potrero pluton, in the western foothills of Sierra San Pedro Mártir, in north-central Baja California, was emplaced during a long period of contractional deformation bracketed between 132 and 85 Ma that affected this segment of the Peninsular Ranges Batholith. The pluton records regional and emplacement related deformation manifested by: (1) a solid-state fabric developed on its eastern contact, which is produced by eastward lateral pluton expansion; (2) cleavage triple point zones in the host-rock NW and SE of the pluton; (3) subhorizontal ductile shear zones indicative of top-to-the-east transport; (4) magmatic and tectonic foliations parallel to regional structural trends and regional shear zones; (5) variable axial ratios of microgranitoid enclaves close to pluton–wall rock contacts; (6) evidence of brittle-emplacement mechanisms in the western border of the pluton, which contrast with features indicating mainly ductile mechanisms toward the east; and, (7) markedly discordant paleomagnetic directions that suggest emplacement in an active tectonic setting. The overall mean for 9 accepted paleomagnetic sites is Dec = 34.6°, I = 25.7° (k = 88.3, α₉₅ = 5.5°), and is deviated  35° with respect to the reference cratonic direction. This magnetization is interpreted to indicate a combination of tilt due to initial drag during vertical diapiric ascent (or westward lateral-oblique expansion) of the adjacent San Pedro Mártir pluton and later rotation ( 15°) by Rosarito Fault activity in the southwest; this rotation may have occurred as eastward contraction acted to fill the space emptied by the ascending San Pedro Mártir pluton. The Rosarito fault may have tilted several plutons in the area (Sierra San Pedro Mártir, El Potrero, San José, and Encinosa). Magnetic susceptibility fabrics for 13 sites reflect mostly emplacement-related stress and regional stress. Paleomagnetic data and structural observations lead us to interpret the El Potrero pluton as a syntectonic pluton, emplaced within a regional shear zone delimited by the Main Mártir Thrust and the younger Rosarito Fault.  相似文献   

Holocene environmental and climatic changes at Gorgo Basso,a coastal lake in southern Sicily,Italy     

Willy Tinner  Jacqueline F.N. van Leeuwen  Daniele Colombaroli  Elisa Vescovi  W.O. van der Knaap  Paul D. Henne  Salvatore Pasta  Stefania D'Angelo  Tommaso La Mantia 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(15-16):1498-1510

We used a new sedimentary record to reconstruct the Holocene vegetation and fire history of Gorgo Basso, a coastal lake in south-western Sicily (Italy). Pollen and charcoal data suggest a fire-prone open grassland near the site until ca 10,000 cal yr BP (8050 cal BC), when Pistacia shrubland expanded and fire activity declined, probably in response to increased moisture availability. Evergreen Olea europaea woods expanded ca 8400 to decline abruptly at 8200 cal yr BP, when climatic conditions became drier at other sites in the Mediterranean region. Around 7000 cal yr BP evergreen broadleaved forests (Quercus ilex, Quercus suber and O. europaea) expanded at the cost of open communities. The expansion of evergreen broadleaved forests was associated with a decline of fire and of local Neolithic (Ficus carica–Cerealia based) agriculture that had initiated ca 500 years earlier. Vegetational, fire and land-use changes ca 7000 cal yr BP were probably caused by increased precipitation that resulted from (insolation-forced) weakening of the monsoon and Hadley circulation ca 8000–6000 cal yr BP. Low fire activity and dense coastal evergreen forests persisted until renewed human activity (probably Greek, respectively Roman colonists) disrupted the forest ca 2700 cal yr BP (750 BC) and 2100 cal yr BP (150 BC) to gain open land for agriculture. The intense use of fire for this purpose induced the expansion of open maquis, garrigue, and grassland-prairie environments (with an increasing abundance of the native palm Chamaerops humilis). Prehistoric land-use phases after the Bronze Age seem synchronous with those at other sites in southern and central Europe, possibly as a result of climatic forcing. Considering the response of vegetation to Holocene climatic variability as well as human impact we conclude that under (semi-)natural conditions evergreen broadleaved Q. ilex–O. europaea (s.l.) forests would still dominate near Gorgo Basso. However, forecasted climate change and aridification may lead to a situation similar to that before 7000 cal yr BP and thus trigger a rapid collapse of the few relict evergreen broadleaved woodlands in coastal Sicily and elsewhere in the southern Mediterranean region.  相似文献   

Total oxyradical scavenging capacity responses in Mytilus galloprovincialis transplanted into the Venice lagoon (Italy) to measure the biological impact of anthropogenic activities     

Camus L  Pampanin DM  Volpato E  Delaney E  Sanni S  Nasci C 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,49(9-10):801-808

Oxidative stress related investigations to monitor the impact of the pollutant discharges into the Venice lagoon (Italy) originating from anthropogenic activities (raw sewage water, agricultural and industrial effluents, oil tanker traffic), on marine organisms have classically been carried out by analyzing specific, single antioxidants (i.e. catalase, superoxide dismutase). In this paper, two studies are reported where the total oxyradical scavenging capacity assay (TOSC) was selected and measured toward peroxyl, and hydroxyl free radicals, and peroxynitrite in mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) transplanted into the Venice city and throughout the lagoon to measure the biological effects of anthropogenic activities. In the first experiment, mussels from a clean site (farm) were transplanted to the urban area of Venice for 0, 1, 2 and 4 weeks; cytosolic TOSC toward peroxyl and hydroxyl free radicals, and peroxynitrite revealed that the transplantation process caused a stress (handling stress, anoxia, oxidative burst) resulting in a reduction of TOSC in both control and urban sites, therefore, preventing clear interpretation of the data after one week. At week 2, a significant TOSC reduction (P < 0.05) toward peroxyl and hydroxyl radicals in the urban site revealed that mussels experienced oxidative pressure exerted by pollutants. Most TOSC values returned to initial levels at week 4; however, TOSC induction was noticed in the control group toward peroxyl and hydroxyl radicals while in the exposed group it was not indicating an inhibition of the oxidative metabolism. In the second experiment, mussels were deployed at seven different sites throughout the lagoon. After five weeks of exposure, significant TOSC reduction was measured (P < 0.05) toward peroxyl for Palude della Rosa, Chioggia and Valle Millecampi, toward hydroxyl radicals for Valle Millecampi and Campalto and toward peroxynitrite for Valle Millecampi. Although these data indicate a depletion of the low molecular weight scavengers, additional biomarkers are needed to draw a conclusion on the health of the mussels. TOSC was proved to be an interesting health index parameter to measure pollution impact in a transplantation study provided that the mussels are exposed for two weeks and a control is run in parallel.  相似文献   

Nucleosynthesis and early chemical evolution in galaxies     

Stelios A Tsangarides  Enrico Arnone  Sean G Ryan 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2003,44(2):2.28-2.29

Nucleosynthesis and galactic chemical evolution are inter-linked topics that merge various fields in astronomy and physics. Speakers at the RAS discussion meeting of January 2003 combined theory and observation in understanding these fields. Stelios A Tsangarides, Enrico Arnone and Sean G Ryan report.  相似文献   

Thermal behaviour of β-anhydrite CaSO<Subscript>4</Subscript> to 1,263 K     

Paolo Ballirano  Elisa Melis 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2007,34(10):699-704

The thermal behaviour of β-anhydrite CaSO₄ has been investigated to 1,263 K in-situ real-time using laboratory parallel-beam X-ray powder diffraction data. The cell parameters expanded anisotropically, the c axis being the “softest”. This behaviour is due to the deformation of the CaO₈ polyhedron. In fact the two longest, independent, Ca–O bond distances show a significant component along the z direction.  相似文献   

Susceptibility to oxidative stress of mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) in the Venice Lagoon (Italy)     

Pampanin DM  Camus L  Gomiero A  Marangon I  Volpato E  Nasci C 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(12):512-1557

The aim of this study was to evaluate the susceptibility to pollutant mediated oxidative stress of the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis in the Venice lagoon (Italy).

In June 2003, mussels from a farm were transplanted to eight sites in the lagoon for five weeks. Oxidative stress responses were measured by: (i) total oxyradical scavenging capacity (TOSC) assay, for an overall evaluation of the oxidative stress response capability; (ii) catalase (CAT), as a key enzyme involved in the antioxidant defence system; (iii) malondialdehyde (MDA), as an indicator of lipid peroxidation, to evaluate an oxidative damage; (iv) metallothioneins (MTs), as they play a role in the antioxidant defence.

The TOSC analysis revealed a reduced capability to eliminate: (i) peroxyl radical in mussels transplanted at Palude della Rosa, Valle Millecampi and Chioggia; (ii) hydroxyl radical at Campalto and Valle Millecampi; (iii) peroxynitrite at Valle Millecampi.

Inhibition in CAT activity, observed in all the monitored sites, confirms the presence of an oxidative pressure in transplanted mussels.

In addition, Pearson correlation analysis was performed in order to observe possible links between the various parameters. The PCA was a powerful tool to discriminate impacted sites, suggesting that the mussels transplanted throughout the Venice lagoon were subjected to different levels of oxidative pressure. Furthermore, it provided an easy and useful tool to summarize the obtained results.  相似文献   

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marcello Vichi  Elisa Manzini  Pier Giuseppe Fogli  Andrea Alessandri  Lavinia Patara  Enrico Scoccimarro  Simona Masina  Antonio Navarra 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(9-10):1929-1947

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ??target?? concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.  相似文献