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981.
982.
The projected impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is a challenge in hydrogeological research because substantial doubts still remain, particularly in arid and semi‐arid zones. We present a methodology to generate future groundwater recharge scenarios using available information about regional climate change projections developed in European Projects. It involves an analysis of regional climate model (RCM) simulations and a proposal for ensemble models to assess the impacts of climate change. Future rainfall and temperature series are generated by modifying the mean and standard deviation of the historical series in accordance with estimates of their change provoked by climate change. Future recharge series will be obtained by simulating these new series within a continuous balance model of the aquifer. The proposed method is applied to the Serral‐Salinas aquifer, located in a semi‐arid zone of south‐east Spain. The results show important differences depending on the RCM used. Differences are also observed between the series generated by imposing only the changes in means or also in standard deviations. An increase in rainfall variability, as expected under future scenarios, could increase recharge rates for a given mean rainfall because the number of extreme events increases. For some RCMs, the simulations predict total recharge increases over the historical values, even though climate change would produce a reduction in the mean rainfall and an increased mean temperature. A method based on a multi‐objective analysis is proposed to provide ensemble predictions that give more value to the information obtained from the best calibrated models. The ensemble of predictions estimates a reduction in mean annual recharge of 14% for scenario A2 and 58% for scenario A1B. Lower values of future recharge are obtained if only the change in the mean is imposed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
983.
We use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations to study tsunami waves in Resurrection Bay, in south-central Alaska. The town of Seward, located at the head of Resurrection Bay, was hit hard by both tectonic and local landslide-generated tsunami waves during the M W 9.2 1964 earthquake with an epicenter located about 150 km northeast of Seward. Recent studies have estimated the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay during the earthquake to be about 211 million m3. Resurrection Bay is a glacial fjord with large tidal ranges and sediments accumulating on steep underwater slopes at a high rate. Also, it is located in a seismically active region above the Aleutian megathrust. All these factors make the town vulnerable to locally generated waves produced by underwater slope failures. Therefore it is crucial to assess the tsunami hazard related to local landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay in order to conduct comprehensive tsunami inundation mapping at Seward. We use numerical modeling to recreate the landslides and tsunami waves of the 1964 earthquake to test the hypothesis that the local tsunami in Resurrection Bay has been produced by a number of different slope failures. We find that numerical results are in good agreement with the observational data, and the model could be employed to evaluate landslide tsunami hazard in Alaska fjords for the purposes of tsunami hazard mitigation.  相似文献   
984.
In this article we analyze the variations of the Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) and its components, Zenith Hydrostatic Delay (ZHD) and Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD) recorded by the GPS reference stations in the area of the Canary Islands during the passing of the tropical storm Delta on November 28 and 29, 2005. During this event, we observed that all GPS stations experienced significant increases of the ZWD value of over 100 mm and a decrease in the ZHD values of about 30 mm. The increase of the normal ZWD values was detected several hours prior to the manifestation of the weather phenomena on the ground. We also noticed a connection between the maximum ZWD values observed and the temporal distribution of the rain. The observed variations of the tropospheric slant directional gradients correlate significantly with the variations in direction and intensity of the observed winds. The relation noted between the ZWD values and the tropospheric slant delay gradients with meteorological observables highlights the convenience of using existing or new GPS networks when studying weather phenomena such as severe cyclones.  相似文献   
985.
The “Colli Albani” composite volcano is made up of strongly silica-undersaturated leucite-bearing rocks. Magmas were erupted during three main periods, but a complex plumbing system dominated by regional tectonics channelled magmas into different reservoirs. The most alkali-rich magmas, restricted to the caldera-forming period (pre-caldera), are extremely enriched in incompatible trace elements and display more radiogenic Sr (87Sr/86Sr?=?0.71057–0.71067), with slightly less radiogenic Pb with respect to those of the post-caldera period. Post-caldera volcanic activity was concentrated in three different volcanic environments: external to the caldera, along the caldera edge and within the caldera. The post-caldera magmas produced melilite- to leucitite-bearing, plagioclase-free leucitites. In contrast to the pre-caldera lavas, they are characterised by lower incompatible trace element abundances and less radiogenic Sr (87Sr/86Sr?=?0.71006–0.71039). Magmas evolved through crystal fractionation plus minor crustal assimilation in a large magma chamber during the pre-caldera period. The multiple caldera collapses dissected and partially obliterated the early magma chamber. During the post-caldera stage, magmas were channelled through several pathways and multiple shallow-level magma reservoirs were established. A lithospheric mantle wedge previously depleted in the basaltic component and subsequently enriched by metasomatic slab-derived component is suggested as the mantle source of Colli Albani parental magmas. Two different parental magmas are recognised for the pre- and post-caldera stages. The differences may be related to the interplay between smaller degrees of melting for the pre-caldera magmas and more carbonate-rich recycled subducted lithologies in the post-caldera magmas.  相似文献   
986.
Fish farms represent a growing source of anthropogenic disturbance to benthic communities, and efficient predictors of such impacts are urgently needed. We explored the effects of fish farm benthic organic and nutrient inputs on the population dynamics of a key seagrass species (Posidonia oceanica) in four Mediterranean deep meadows adjacent to sea bream and sea bass farms. We performed two annual plant censuses on permanent plots at increasing distance from farms and measured benthic sedimentation rates around plots. High shoot mortality rates were recorded near the cages, up to 20 times greater than at control sites. Recruitment rates increased in variability but could not compensate mortality, leading to rapid seagrass decline within the first 100 m from cages. Seagrass mortality increased with total sedimentation rates (K=0.55, p<0.0002), and with organic matter (K=0.50, p=0.001), total nitrogen (K=0.46, p=0.002) and total phosphorus (K=0.56, p<3.10(-5)) inputs. P. oceanica decline accelerated above a phosphorus loading threshold of 50mg m(-2)day(-1). Phosphorus benthic sedimentation rate seems a powerful predictor of seagrass mortality from fish farming. Coupling direct measurements of benthic sedimentation rates with dynamics of key benthic species is proposed as an efficient strategy to predict fish farm impacts to benthic communities.  相似文献   
987.
988.
Thermal remanent magnetization (TRM) analyses were carried out on lithic fragments from two different typologies of pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits of the 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano, in order to estimate their equilibrium temperature (Tdep) after deposition. The estimated Tdep range is 360–400 °C, which overlaps the direct measurements of temperature carried out four days after the eruption on the PDC deposits. This overlap demonstrates the reliability of the TRM method to estimate the Tdep of pyroclastic deposits and to approximate their depositional temperature. These results also constraint the time needed for reaching thermal equilibrium within four days for the studied PDC deposits, in agreement with predictions of theoretical models.  相似文献   
989.
 Hydrothermic features in Spain have been used since ancient times for therapeutic purposes. At present, the number of spas has decreased notably, although some of them have been restored for aesthetic reasons. From 1970 onwards hydrogeothermic energy started to be used. There are some boreholes and small facilities at several places in Spain, mostly on the Mediterranean coast and near Madrid. The hydrochemistry of spanish thermal groundwaters is directly related to the geological nature of granite and limestones where most important springs are located. Received: 9 November 1998 · Accepted: 11 May 1999  相似文献   
990.
A set of forty seven Late Cenozoic basaltic rocks from the Eastern Tuva (southern Siberia, Russia) have been studied by ICP-MS using In as an internal standard. Yttrium and Ho concentrations, determined along with other trace elements, varied systematically from one analytical run to another and covered the entire charge-and-radius-controlled field within the range 24 < Y/Ho < 34, so obscuring any geochemical interpretation. A correction procedure was therefore developed in which the Y/Ho ratios were recalculated using concentrations of these elements determined in international and in-house reference materials (BHVO-1, AGV-1, BIR-1 and U-94-5). Statistical analysis of the recalculated data set revealed two groups of samples not related by their genesis but rather by their respective analytical runs. Fourteen samples originally analysed in five different runs were then re-measured by the same instrument in peak-hopping mode using only specific mass peaks (m/z = 89, 115 and 165). All of these samples yielded Y/Ho ratios in a narrow range between 29 and 31, thus illustrating how analytical problems in the determination of Y and Ho by routine ICP-MS procedures can be overcome. Finally, a mean value of Y/Ho = 30.3 ± 1.1 (1s) was derived for the basaltic rocks of the Eastern Tuva. This is close to the value of 28.8 accepted for chondrites and for ocean island basalts. Despite the uniform Y/Ho ratio, the element concentrations in basaltic rocks from the Eastern Tuva show systematic enrichment in heavy rare earth elements and yttrium from the Miocene to the Quaternary.  相似文献   
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