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91.
92.
Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.  相似文献   
93.
The present paper investigates the mechanical behaviour of oil sand specimens in triaxial compression tests at both ambient and elevated temperatures. The emphasis is particularly on core sample disturbance and on the multiphase/strongly heterogeneous nature of the material that introduces difficulties in achieving an objective characterization of its shear behaviour. First, the effect of sample disturbance on the behaviour of the oil sand is studied. Tests are performed on both disturbed and recompressed specimens. Recompression to large stress prior to shearing improves evaluation of the initial stiffness and associated volumetric changes of the oil sand, strongly affected by sample disturbance. A method for the correction of test results obtained from disturbed specimens is also proposed. The corrected results are in good agreement with those pertaining to recompressed specimens. Furthermore, a general classification of the tested oil sands into lean and rich in bitumen, where the former shows much softer and weaker behaviour, is considered to help in addressing the variability in sample composition. As for thermal aspects, the experimental results indicate that both strength and stiffness exhibit a limited temperature dependency. The temperature does not affect lean oil sand specimens, whereas heating considerably increases deformability of rich specimens.  相似文献   
94.
In this paper, new ideas from our previous paper (Rydzyska, 1989)-i.e., problems connected with the new equivalence principle-have been developed. It is conformed, that certain static particles from Bellert's space-time are equivalent to a free particle from classic Milne's space-time. Mention is made of the algebraic structure of Bellert's space-time from (Rydzyska, 1990b). The space-time interval in this space-time, and its connection with a probability and the physical meaning of this interval and probability, has been defined. In the last section we derive dynamical equations for Bellert's space-time, i.e., we do the foundations of Bellert's general relativity theory.  相似文献   
95.
Under field conditions modern digital conductivity meters give standardized, rapid and reproducible measurements. Here we investigate the accuracy of their estimates of the composition of karst waters, as total hardness (TH, as mg/L CaCO3) for limestone and dolomite. These are the fundamental measures of process in carbonate karst geomorphology. PHREEQC theoretical curves for the dissolution of pure calcite/aragonite and dolomite in water at 25 °C are compared with water analyses from karst studies worldwide. Other principal ions encountered are sulphates, nitrates and chlorides (the ‘SNC’ group). From carbonate karsts, 2309 spring, well and stream samples were divided into uncontaminated (SNC < 10%), moderately contaminated (10 < SNC < 20%), and contaminated (SNC > 20%) classes. Where specific conductivity (SpC) is less than 600 µS/cm, a clear statistical distinction can be drawn between waters having little contamination and substantially contaminated waters with SNC > 20%. As sometimes claimed in manufacturers' literature, in ‘clean’ limestone waters TH is close to 1/2SpC, with a standard error of 2–3 mg/L. The slope of the best‐fit line for 1949 samples covering all SNC classes where SpC < 600 µS/cm is 1·86, very close to the 1·88 obtained for clean limestone waters; however, the value of the intercept is ten times higher. The regression line for clean limestone waters where SpC > 600 µS/cm helps to distinguish polluted waters from clean waters with possible endogenic sources of CO2. In the range 250 < SpC < 600 µS/cm, dolomite waters can be readily distinguished from limestone waters. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
96.
The thermodynamic stability of selected alkylated, dealkylated and rearranged 17α- and 17β-hopane isomers in the C27, C28, C29, C30 and C31 families were calculated using molecular mechanics (MM2) methods and, where possible, calculated equilibrium ratios of certain isomers were compared with observed ratios of isomers in thermally mature crude oil samples. Those calculated and observed ratios having similar values include: (1) the relative distributions among 17β(H)/17α(H) and 21β(H)/21α(H)-hopanes including the absence of the 17β(H),21β(H)- and 17α(H),21α(H)-hopanes; (2) the 22R/22S ratios in 30-methyl-17α-hopane and 30-methyl-17β-moretane; (3) the relative distributions among 17α(H)/17β(H)- and 21α(H)/21β(H)-28,30-bisnorhopanes and among 25,28,30-trisnorhopanes, including the relatively greater stability of 17β(H) isomers in contrast to the regular hopane series; and (4) the ratios of 28(18−17S)abeo hopanes with respect to their unrearranged counterparts including the C27 compounds, Ts/Tm.  相似文献   
97.
A major mode of transmission of Cryptosporidium parvum, a widespread waterborne pathogen, is via contaminated drinking and recreational waters. Oocyst transport to surface water can occur by deposition of manure directly in the water or by wash off in surface runoff. Oocyst transport to groundwater is less straightforward and requires that the oocysts move through soil and bedrock to reach the water table. The purpose of this study was to determine the relative concentration and infectivity of C. parvum oocysts released from manure and leached through columns of undisturbed, macroporous karst soil. Modeling the fate of oocysts in this system over time can provide baseline data for evaluating real world events. Substantially more oocysts leached from undisturbed soil columns than disturbed soil columns. Oocyst survival studies using BALB/c neonatal suckling mice showed that about 85% of oocysts were infective at the beginning of leaching experiments. The oocyst infectivity decreased to about 20% after 12 weeks of leaching from soil columns maintained at 10°C. Cool (10°C) temperatures appear to increase survivability and maintain infectivity of many oocysts for 3 months or longer. Cool temperatures also appear to increase rates of release of oocysts from manure and leaching through soil. This study demonstrated that leaching is an important mechanism of oocyst transport in karst soils where infiltration capacities are high and long, continuous macropores exist. Karst groundwater systems might be especially vulnerable to contamination by leached oocysts, because of the prevalence of shallow soils and rapid groundwater movement. Oocysts leaching from soils into the epikarst could accumulate and remain viable for months until hydrological conditions are right for flushing the oocysts into the conduit flow system.  相似文献   
98.
Seismogenic regions within some geographic area are interrelated through tectonics and seismic history, although this relation is usually complex, so that seismicity in a given region cannot be predicted in a straightforward manner from the activity in other region(s). We present a new statistical method for seismic hazard evaluation based on modeling the transition probabilities of seismicity patterns in the regions of a geographic area during a time interval, as a Markov chain. Application of the method to the Japan area renders good results, considering the occurrence of a high probability transition as a successful forecast. For magnitudes M5.5 and time intervals t=0.10 year, the method yields a 78% aftcast (forecast of data already used to evaluate the hazard) success rate for the entire catalog, and an indicative 80% forecast success rate for the last 10 transitions in the catalog. A byproduct of the method, regional occurrence probabilities determined from the transition probabilities, also provides good results; aftcasts of regional activity have a 98% success rate, and those of activity in the highest probability region about 80.5% success rate. All results are superior to those from the null hypotheses (a memory-less Poissonian, fixed-rate, or uniform system) and have vanishingly small probabilities of resulting from purely random guessing.  相似文献   
99.
Summer mean daily temperature extremes in Svalbard Lufthavn (Central Spitsbergen) in the period 1975–2010 and daily pressure patterns and directions of air circulation conducive to their occurrence were analyzed. Positive (negative) extremes of daily mean temperatures in the summer were determined as higher (lower) than or equal to the value of the 90th (10th) percentile. The annual number of selected days shows a great year-to-year variability, although the annual number of extremely low mean daily temperature (≤1.3 °C) was decreasing in the 1976–2010 period, with a rate of about 4 days per decade. At the same time, the number of days with extremely high mean daily temperatures (≤8.2 °C) was increasing with a rate of about 2 days per decade. The summer pressure patterns and the air circulation conditions have an impact on the occurrence of the air mean daily temperature extremes. Namely, anticyclones spreading east to the Svalbard Archipelago, accompanied by the Icelandic Low, cause the air inflow from the southerly direction and positive mean daily temperature extremes. A cyclonal system spreading east or southeast towards the archipelago, together with a high-pressure ridge over the North Atlantic, indicates the northern air flow and negative mean daily temperature extremes in summer. The results obtained in this study prove that the summer air temperature in the Atlantic region of the Arctic is partly controlled by air circulation, and despite the intensity and stability of the summer cyclones and anticyclones being weaker than in the winter, their position strongly determines the occurrence of mean daily temperature extremes in the summer.  相似文献   
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