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41.
Rudolf?BráZdilEmail author Christian?Pfister Heinz?Wanner Hans?Von?Storch JüRg?Luterbacher 《Climatic change》2005,70(3):363-430
This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the “Medieval Warm Period” and the “Little Ice Age”, synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts. 相似文献
42.
A filter composed of a crossed pair of doubly refracting crystals and a polaroid, mounted at the focal plane of the telescope, divides each star image into two images of constant intensity ratio. It is shown that such a filter arrangement is capable of providing reliable photographic calibration for stellar photometry. 相似文献
43.
Stanis?aw?MazurEmail author Krzysztof?Turniak Michael?Br?cker 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2004,93(5):758-772
The Kodzko Metamorphic Complex (KMC) in the Central Sudetes consists of meta-sedimentary and meta-igneous rocks metamorphosed under greenschist to amphibolite facies conditions. They are comprised in a number of separate tectonic units interpreted as thrust sheets. In contrast to other Lower Palaeozoic volcano-sedimentary successions in the Sudetes, the two uppermost units (the Orla-Googowy unit and the Kodzko Fortress unit) of the KMC contain meta-igneous rocks with supra-subduction zone affinities. The age of the KMC was previously assumed to be Early Palaeozoic–Devonian, based on biostratigraphic findings in the lowermost tectonic unit. Our geochronological study focused on the magmatic rocks from the two uppermost tectonic units, exposed in the SW part of the KMC. Two orthogneiss samples from the Orla-Googowy unit yielded ages of 500.4±3.1 and 500.2±4.9 Ma, interpreted to indicate the crystallization age of the granitic precursors. A plagioclase gneiss from the same tectonic unit, intimately interlayered with metagabbro, provided an upper intercept age of 590.1±7.2 Ma, which is interpreted as the time of igneous crystallization. From the topmost Kodzko Fortress unit, a metatuffite was studied, which contains a mixture of genetically different zircon grains. The youngest 207Pb/206Pb ages, which cluster at ca. 590-600 Ma, are interpreted to indicate the maximum depositional age for this metasediment. The results of this study are in accord with a model that suggests a nappe structure for the KMC, with a Middle Devonian succession at the base and Upper Proterozoic units at structurally higher levels. It is suggested here that the KMC represents a composite tectonic suture that juxtaposes elements of pre-Variscan basement, intruded by the Lower Ordovician granite, against a Middle Palaeozoic passive margin succession. The new ages, combined with the overall geochemical variation in the KMC, indicate the existence of rock assemblages representing a Gondwana active margin. The recognition of Neoproterozoic subduction-related magmatism provides additional arguments for the hypothesis that equivalents of the Teplá-Barrandian domain are exposed in the Central Sudetes. 相似文献
44.
Jochen Br?cker 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(3-4):655-667
Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule. 相似文献
45.
K. Kürbis M. Mudelsee G. Tetzlaff R. Brázdil 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,98(1-2):187-195
For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague–Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s. 相似文献
46.
47.
European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’ 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Rudolf Brázdil Gaston R. Demarée Mathias Deutsch Emmanuel Garnier Andrea Kiss Jürg Luterbacher Neil Macdonald Christian Rohr Petr Dobrovolný Petr Kolář Kateřina Chromá 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,100(1-2):163-189
The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe. 相似文献
48.
49.
Jasper Moernaut Marc De Batist Katrien Heirman Maarten Van Daele Mario Pino Robert Brümmer Roberto Urrutia 《Sedimentary Geology》2009,213(3-4):121-135
A dense grid of very-high resolution seismic profiles on Lake Villarrica provides a quasi-3D view on intercalated lenses of low-amplitude reflections, which are connected by acoustic wipe-out patches and fractures to an underlying voluminous mass-wasting deposit. The lenses are interpreted as being created by earthquake-triggered liquefaction in this buried mass-wasting deposit and subsequent sediment fluidization and extrusion at the paleo-lake bottom. These sediment volcanoes are mapped in detail. They have a rather uniform circular geometry and show a linear relationship between apparent width and maximum thickness on a seismic section. The largest sediment volcanoes are up to 80 m wide and 1.9 m thick. Their slope angles designate a syn- to post-depositional sagging of most sediment volcanoes. Sediment volcano detection and mapping from nearby Lake Calafquén further strengthen the revealed geometrical relationships. Locally, some of the sediment/fluid escape structures extend to a higher position in the stratigraphy, which points to a polyphase escape process associated with multiple multi-century spaced strong earthquakes. Thickness and morphology of the source layer seem to exert a dominant control in the production of sediment/fluid extrusions. This study shows that reflection seismic profiling allowed recognizing 4 different seismic events in the studied stratigraphic interval, which are evidenced by mass-wasting deposits and/or fluidization features. 相似文献
50.
Hans Olav Bråtå 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2017,71(5):301-312
The aim of the article is to analyse challenges facing the commercial production of historical beers, which are ‘extinct’ beers. The concept of ‘fictive terroir’ is introduced to emphasize these challenges. The author addresses the following questions: What kind of knowledge is needed to produce historical beers? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be used commercially in craft breweries? The studied case is Vossaøl, a craft beer imitation of a beer produced in the early 19th century. The data were obtained from written sources and interviews with local home brewers and brewers at Voss Brewery in Norway. The study revealed the need to reconstruct the terroir in the early 19th century. Additionally, Voss Brewery had to acquire knowledge about how to process and combine the ingredients, which included the traditional yeast (kveik). Involving traditional home brewers was crucial to determine how ingredients could be combined to produce Vossaøl. The author concludes that a synthetic knowledge base was a useful point of departure in this respect. Participation in the traditional culture of brewing proved an important means when working with this knowledge base. The results are interesting in the broader context of the reconstruction of beverages and food. 相似文献