Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Benedetto Calvo  Fabrizio Savi 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(3):461-477

An adaptive, conceptual model for real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome is proposed. This model simulates both rainfall-runoff transformations, to reproduce the contributions of 37 ungauged sub-basins that covered about 30% of the catchment area, and flood routing processes in the hydrographic network. The adaptive component of the model concerns the rainfall-runoff analysis: at any time step the whole set of the model parameters is recalibrated by minimizing the objective function constituted by the sum of the squares of the differences between observed and computed water surface elevations (or discharges). The proposed model was tested through application under real-time forecasting conditions for three historical flood events. To assess the forecasting accuracy, to support the decision maker and to reduce the possibility of false or missed warnings, confidence intervals of the forecasted water surface elevations (or discharges), computed according to a Monte Carlo procedure, are provided. The evaluation of errors in the prediction of peak values, of coefficients of persistence and of the amplitude of confidence intervals of prediction shows the possibility to develop a flood forecast model with a lead time of 12 h, which is useful for civil protection actions.  相似文献   

Effects of non-stoichiometry on the spinel structure at high pressure: Implications for Earth’s mantle mineralogy     

Fabrizio Nestola  Joseph R. Smyth  Luciano Secco  Marco Bruno  Alberto Dal Negro 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(2):489-3427

A non-stoichiometric sample of spinel with composition ^T(Mg_0.4Al_0.6)^M(Al_1.8□_0.2)O₄ was investigated by single-crystal X-ray diffraction in situ up to about 8.7 GPa using a diamond anvil cell. The P(V) data were fitted using a third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state and the unit-cell volume V₀, the bulk modulus K_T0 and its first pressure derivative K′ were refined simultaneously providing the following coefficients: V₀ = 510.34(6) Å³, K_T0 = 171(2) GPa, K′ = 7.3(6). This K_T0 value represents the lowest ever found for spinel crystal structures. Comparing our data with a stoichiometric and natural MgAl₂O₄ (pure composition) we observe a decrease in K_T0 by about 11.5% and a strong increase in K′ by about 33%. These results demonstrate how an excess of Al accompanied by the formation of significant cation vacancies at octahedral site strongly affects the thermodynamic properties of spinel structure. If we consider that the estimated mantle composition is characterized by 3-5% of Al₂O₃ this could imply an Mg/Al substitution with possible formation of cation vacancies. The results of our study indicate that geodynamic models should take into account the potential effect of Mg/Al substitution on the incompressibility of the main mantle-forming minerals (olivine, wadsleyite, ringwoodite, Mg-perovskite).  相似文献   

A close look at Saturn's rings with Cassini VIMS     

Philip D. Nicholson  Matthew M. Hedman  Mark R. Showalter  Jeffrey N. Cuzzi  Fabrizio Capaccioni  Gary B. Hansen  Pierre Drossart  Bonnie J. Buratti  Angioletta Coradini 《Icarus》2008,193(1):182-212

Soon after the Cassini-Huygens spacecraft entered orbit about Saturn on 1 July 2004, its Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer obtained two continuous spectral scans across the rings, covering the wavelength range 0.35-5.1 μm, at a spatial resolution of 15-25 km. The first scan covers the outer C and inner B rings, while the second covers the Cassini Division and the entire A ring. Comparisons of the VIMS radial reflectance profile at 1.08 μm with similar profiles at a wavelength of 0.45 μm assembled from Voyager images show very little change in ring structure over the intervening 24 years, with the exception of a few features already known to be noncircular. A model for single-scattering by a classical, many-particle-thick slab of material with normal optical depths derived from the Voyager photopolarimeter stellar occultation is found to provide an excellent fit to the observed VIMS reflectance profiles for the C ring and Cassini Division, and an acceptable fit for the inner B ring. The A ring deviates significantly from such a model, consistent with previous suggestions that this region may be closer to a monolayer. An additional complication here is the azimuthally-variable average optical depth associated with “self-gravity wakes” in this region and the fact that much of the A ring may be a mixture of almost opaque wakes and relatively transparent interwake zones. Consistently with previous studies, we find that the near-infrared spectra of all main ring regions are dominated by water ice, with a typical regolith grain radius of 5-20 μm, while the steep decrease in visual reflectance shortward of 0.6 μm is suggestive of an organic contaminant, perhaps tholin-like. Although no materials other than H₂O ice have been identified with any certainty in the VIMS spectra of the rings, significant radial variations are seen in the strength of the water-ice absorption bands. Across the boundary between the C and B rings, over a radial range of ∼7000 km, the near-IR band depths strengthen considerably. A very similar pattern is seen across the outer half of the Cassini Division and into the inner A ring, accompanied by a steepening of the red slope in the visible spectrum shortward of 0.55 μm. We attribute these trends—as well as smaller-scale variations associated with strong density waves in the A ring—to differing grain sizes in the tholin-contaminated icy regolith that covers the surfaces of the decimeter-to-meter sized ring particles. On the largest scale, the spectral variations seen by VIMS suggest that the rings may be divided into two larger ‘ring complexes,’ with similar internal variations in structure, optical depth, particle size, regolith texture and composition. The inner complex comprises the C and B rings, while the outer comprises the Cassini Division and A ring.  相似文献   

A simple and generalised <Emphasis Type="Italic">P–T–V</Emphasis> EoS for continuous phase transitions,implemented in EosFit and applied to quartz     

Ross?J.?AngelEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Matteo?Alvaro  Ronald?Miletich  Fabrizio?Nestola 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(5):29

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Quaternary tectonics and large-scale gravitational deformations with evidence of rock-slide displacements in the Central Apennines (central Italy)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Fabrizio Galadini   《Geomorphology》2006,82(3-4):201-228

Eight cases of large-scale gravitational movements (with evidence of rock-slide type displacements) evolving close to Quaternary faults have been analysed in the Central Apennines. Geomorphological and structural surveys have defined the relationship between the gravitational displacements and the tectonically-controlled modifications of the landscape. The evolution of all the investigated cases has been conditioned by the presence of fault planes located along the mountain slopes. In most cases (Mt. Cefalone, Cima della Fossa, Villavallelonga, Casali d'Aschi, Gioia dei Marsi), the faults played or are playing a primary role in increasing the local relief and their activity represents the main geomorphic factor conditioning the gravitational movements. This kind of relationship has been observed along mountain slopes bordering depressions which have not been drained for most of their geomorphic history or have been characterised by an evolution of the hydrographic network that has been conditioned only by the local tectonic subsidence. In such cases, the gravitational movements develop in the footwalls of the faults. In other cases (Fiamignano, Pescasseroli) the faults have played a passive role, since they only bound the sliding masses and coincide with the surficial expressions of the sliding planes. Therefore, the gravitational displacements develop in the hangingwall of the faults. The evolution is conditioned by the incision of the hydrographic network in response to regional Quaternary uplift. The illustrated case studies provide a wide range of examples of the gravitational response of slopes to the modifications of the landscape due to linear and areal tectonics. The identification of the geomorphic traces of the large-scale gravitational movements along fault-controlled mountain fronts has implications for hazard, particularly for the evolution of the displacement. The quantitative analysis of the vertical displacements and data on the characteristics of the surface breaking during historical earthquakes demonstrate that along-fault offsets strongly increases where the unstable large-scale rock masses are located. Therefore, the large coseismic vertical offset may represent a major problem for the displacement of utilities and may represent a potential cause for the sudden and catastrophic evolution of the gravitational movement.  相似文献   

Late Barremian to early Aptian calcareous nannofossil paleoceanography and paleoecology from the Ocean Drilling Program Hole 641C (Galicia Margin)     

Fabrizio Tremolada  Elisabetta Erba  Timothy J. Bralower 《Cretaceous Research》2006,27(6):887-897

Calcareous nannofossil assemblages at Site 641C (Galicia Margin, North Atlantic) were investigated in order to determine changes in fertility and temperature of surface waters. Taxa such as Zeughrabdotus spp. <3.5 μm, Biscutum constans, Discorhabdus rotatorius and Diazomatolithus lehmanii, which thrived in higher fertility conditions, are particularly abundant across the CM0 interval as opposed to those with oligotrophic affinities such as Watznaueria spp. and Nannoconus spp., which are generally reduced in abundance. The abundances of nannoconids are much lower than those observed in Tethyan sections, indicating higher fertility conditions. Slumpings and low recovery prevent the identification of the onset of the “nannoconid crisis”, but a sharp drop in nannoconid abundances, observed prior to the CM0 interval, correlates with the “nannoconid decline” observed in several Tethys sections.The normalized ratio between low and high fertility taxa (Fertility Index) was used to characterize the nannofossil assemblages in terms of productivity changes. The highest values of the Fertility Index were observed across magnetic chron CM0. The paucity of cold water taxa such as Seribiscutum spp. and Repagulum parvidentatum suggests warm water conditions throughout the deposition of upper Barremian–lower Aptian sediments on the Galicia Margin.  相似文献   

Quantum-mechanical modeling of minerals at high pressures. The role of the Hamiltonian in a case study: the beryl (Al4Be6Si12O36)     

Mauro Prencipe  Fabrizio Nestola 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2005,32(7):471-479

Ab initio calculations of the beryl structure at room and higher pressures, and of its equation of state, have been performed both at the Hartree–Fock (HF) and density functional (DFT) level. In the latter case, three different hybrid HF/DFT Hamiltonians have been employed, in which the exact non-local exchange contribution increases from 20% (B3LYP Hamiltonian, indicated with the symbol F20) to 50% (F50) and 60% (F60). Within the DFT series, the equilibrium volume (V ₀) increases as the HF exchange contribution decreases; with respect to the experimental datum, F20 overestimates V ₀ by 2.9%, whereas F60 underestimates it by 0.9%; F50 (and HF) volume is very close to the experimental datum (error less than −0.1%). All four Hamiltonians overestimate the bulk modulus (K ₀); with respect to the experimental datum (obtained in the present work) [K ₀=179(1) GPa], the F20 Hamiltonian leads to the smallest error (+2.7%); the corresponding errors for the F50, F60 and HF Hamiltonians are +13.2, +16.2 and +16.3%, respectively. In the case of F20, in spite of the small error in K ₀, the relatively large error in V ₀ leads to an incorrect P(V) equation of state, which significantly overestimates the pressure at a given volume, compared to the experimental one at the same volume; the maximum error in the pressure range investigated is at the largest pressure (P _max=26.4 GPa) and amounts to +34.8%. The corresponding errors for the F50, F60 and HF Hamiltonians are +12.9, +5.7 and +15.5%.  相似文献   

Seismogenic sources potentially responsible for earthquakes with M≥ 6 in the eastern Southern Alps (Thiene–Udine sector, NE Italy)     

F. Galadini  M. E. Poli  A. Zanferrari 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,161(3):739-762

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Automatic regional moment tensor inversion in the European-Mediterranean region   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Fabrizio Bernardi  Jochen Braunmiller  Urs Kradolfer  Domenico Giardini 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(2):703-716

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Upwards migration of seismic focii: A forerunner of the 1989 eruption of Mt Etna (Italy)     

Mario Castellano  Fabrizio Ferrucci  Cataldo Godano  Sebastiano Imposa  Girolamo Milano 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1993,55(5):357-361

Data from a portable array of three-component digital stations, run at Mt Etna from 1988 to early 1990, highlight the seismic behaviour of the volcano before the 1989 eruption, one of the most significant in terms of energy of the last two decades. After a two-year period of weak and discotinuous seismicity, the depth of the seismically active volumes was observed to become shallower a few months before the volcanic event. The overall migration of the events, inferred by hypocentral locations and decreases of S-P time differences at two stations, agrees with other geophysical forerunners and allows further insights into the changes in the stress field leading to the eruption.  相似文献