Value of Information Introduced by a Resource Model Updating Framework     

Yüksel  Cansın  Minnecker  Corinna  Shishvan  Masoud Soleymani  Benndorf  Jörg  Buxton  Mike 《Mathematical Geosciences》2019,51(7):925-943

A primary concern of the mining industry is to meet production targets, which are required and defined by customers. Deviations from these targets, in terms of quality and quantity, highly affect the economical aspect. Recently, an efficient resource model updating framework concept has been proposed aiming for the improvement of raw material quality control and process efficiency in any type of mining operation. The concept integrates online sensor measurements, obtained during production, into the resource model. In this way, due to the spatial variability, quality attributes of the blocks that will be produced in the next days or weeks are being updated based on real-time measurements. The concept has been applied in a lignite field with the aim of identifying local impurities in a lignite seam and to improve the prediction of coal quality attributes in neighbouring blocks. This paper investigates the added value of using the resource model updating framework by using the value of information analysis. The expected benefit of additional information (integration of the online sensor measurements into the resource model) is compared to a case where there is no additional information integrated into the process. These benefits are evaluated based on the economic impact determined by applying the resource model updating framework in mine planning.

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Hydrochemical and isotopic properties of the Mahmutlu and Bağdatoğlu mineralized thermal springs, Kırşehir, Turkey     

N. Ünsal  M. Afşin 《Hydrogeology Journal》1999,7(6):540-545

The present study identifies the hydrochemical and isotopic properties of the Mahmutlu and Ba?dato?lu mineralized thermal springs in K?r?ehir province, a geothermal field in central Anatolia, Turkey. Based on these properties, a hydrogeological regime is proposed in order to explain the Mahmutlu–Ba?dato?lu geothermal system. The relation between the concentrations of the environmental stable isotopes deuterium and oxygen-18 in the water is similar to the relationship in global meteoric water, indicating that the water is of meteoric origin. Evaluation of the geochemical characteristics of the water reveals that these two thermal springs belong to the same hydrogeological system. The hydrogeological system comprises a fractured limestone member of the Çevirme Formation and the Kervansaray Formation as reservoir rocks, and the Delice?rmak Formation as an overlying aquitard. The waters of the Mahmutlu and Ba?dato?lu springs are mainly of the Na-Cl-SO4 type that originate from the Pohrenk evaporite. The thermal waters are undersaturated with respect to calcite, dolomite, halite, and gypsum. The δ 18O and δ 2H contents indicate a δ 18O shift in the Mahmutlu and Ba?dato?lu waters. The temperature range of the two reservoirs is estimated to be 98–158?°C, on the basis of Na+K+Ca and SiO2 geothermometers.  相似文献   

Local magnitude scale for earthquakes in Turkey     

T. Kılıç  L. Ottemöller  J. Havskov  K. Yanık  Ö. Kılıçarslan  F. Alver  M. Özyazıcıoğlu 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(1):35-46

Based on the earthquake event data accumulated by the Turkish National Seismic Network between 2007 and 2013, the local magnitude (Richter, Ml) scale is calibrated for Turkey and the close neighborhood. A total of 137 earthquakes (Mw?>?3.5) are used for the Ml inversion for the whole country. Three Ml scales, whole country, East, and West Turkey, are developed, and the scales also include the station correction terms. Since the scales for the two parts of the country are very similar, it is concluded that a single Ml scale is suitable for the whole country. Available data indicate the new scale to suffer from saturation beyond magnitude 6.5. For this data set, the horizontal amplitudes are on average larger than vertical amplitudes by a factor of 1.8. The recommendation made is to measure Ml amplitudes on the vertical channels and then add the logarithm scale factor to have a measure of maximum amplitude on the horizontal. The new Ml is compared to Mw from EMSC, and there is almost a 1:1 relationship, indicating that the new scale gives reliable magnitudes for Turkey.  相似文献   

Frequency based imputation of precipitation     

Fatih?DikbasEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(9):2415-2434

Changing climate and precipitation patterns make the estimation of precipitation, which exhibits two-dimensional and sometimes chaotic behavior, more challenging. In recent decades, numerous data-driven methods have been developed and applied to estimate precipitation; however, these methods suffer from the use of one-dimensional approaches, lack generality, require the use of neighboring stations and have low sensitivity. This paper aims to implement the first generally applicable, highly sensitive two-dimensional data-driven model of precipitation. This model, named frequency based imputation (FBI), relies on non-continuous monthly precipitation time series data. It requires no determination of input parameters and no data preprocessing, and it provides multiple estimations (from the most to the least probable) of each missing data unit utilizing the series itself. A total of 34,330 monthly total precipitation observations from 70 stations in 21 basins within Turkey were used to assess the success of the method by removing and estimating observation series in annual increments. Comparisons with the expectation maximization and multiple linear regression models illustrate that the FBI method is superior in its estimation of monthly precipitation. This paper also provides a link to the software code for the FBI method.  相似文献   

The use of 3D modeling for the prediction of the seismic demands on the gravity dams          下载免费PDF全文

M. Bybordiani  Y. Arıcı 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(11):1769-1789

Seismic behavior of gravity dams has long been evaluated using a representative two‐dimensional (2D) system. Formulated for the gravity dams built in wide canyons, the assumption is nevertheless utilized extensively for almost all concrete dams due to the established procedures as well as the expected computational costs of a three‐dimensional model. However, a significant number of roller‐compacted concrete dams, characterized as such systems, do not conform to the basic assumptions of these methods by violating the conditions on canyon dimensions and joint‐spacing/details. Based on the premise that the 2D modeling assumption is overstretched for practical purposes in a variety of settings, the purpose of this study is to critically evaluate the use of 2D modeling for the prediction of the seismic demands on these systems. Using a rigorous soil–structure interaction approach, the difference between the two and three‐dimensional response for gravity dams was investigated first in the frequency domain for a range of canyon widths and foundation to dam moduli ratios. Then, the time domain differences between the crest displacements and the maximum principal stress were obtained using 70 different ground motions in order to show the possible bias introduced into the analysis results due to the modeling approach. The results of the study show that even for relatively wide canyons, the 2D analysis can lead to misleading predictions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Replaceable links with direct brace attachments for eccentrically braced frames          下载免费PDF全文

Mehmet Bakır Bozkurt  Cem Topkaya 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(13):2121-2139

This paper reports findings of an experimental study conducted on replaceable links for steel eccentrically braced frames (EBFs). A replaceable link detail which is based on splicing the directly connected braces and the beam outside the link is proposed. This detail eliminates the need to use hydraulic jacks and flame cutting operations for replacement purposes. Performance of this proposed replaceable link was studied by conducting eight nearly full‐scale EBF tests under quasi‐static cyclic loading. The link length ratio, stiffening of the link, loading protocol, connection type, bolt pretension, gap size of splice connections, and demand‐to‐capacity ratios of members were considered as the prime variables. The specimens primarily showed two types of failure modes: link web fracture and fracture of the flange at the link‐to‐brace connection. No failures were observed at the splice connections indicating that the proposed replaceable link detail provides an excellent response. The inelastic rotation capacity provided by the replaceable links satisfied the requirements of the AISC Seismic Provisions for Structural Steel Buildings (AISC341–10). The overstrength factor of the links exceeded 2.0, which is larger than the value assumed for EBF links by design provisions. The high level of overstrength resulted in brace buckling in one of the specimens demonstrating the importance of overstrength factor used for EBF links. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Cause of scale inconsistencies in DORIS time series     

Petr Štěpánek  Vratislav Filler 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2018,62(4):562-585

In this paper we analyze the scale of the DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) solutions with respect to DORIS extension of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) for Precise Orbit Determination DPOD2014. The main goal is to explain the scale inconsistencies and to find the optimal solution reaching low-biased and consistent scale time series. Our analysis profits from 4 different strategies based only on the Geodetic Observatory Pecný analysis center solution, using DORIS exchange format data 2.2. A difference in the sequence of the solutions directly corresponds to one of the changes in the solution settings: data elevation dependent weighting, application of data validity indicators and application of phase center - reference point correction. We process multi-satellite and single-satellite solutions for the time period 2011.0–2017.0. Our analysis examines scale inconsistency issues in 2011/2012 and in 2015. The scale increment in 2011/2012 is explained as a result of the concurrence of changes in satellite constellation and change in the provider data validity standards for Cryosat-2 and Jason-2 satellites. The scale increment in 2015 is explained as the effect of change in the standards for phase center - reference center corrections for Saral, Jason-2 and Cryosat-2 satellites. Moreover, comparing the solutions with and without elevation dependent data downweighting using the same elevation cutoff (10°), we found a significant reduction of scale bias and scale variation applying the data downweighting. The data downweighting improved also the station positioning repeatability. We demonstrate that the solution, which is completely free from the additional data associated with observations in DORIS exchange format 2.2 and includes the data downweighting law, eventuates in a consistent scale time series with the lowest offset with respect to DPOD2014 (version 1.0) (12.7 ± 2.3 mm for 2011.0–2017.0). The only remaining scale issue is the part of 2011/2012 increment of around 5 mm, explained by a change in the DORIS satellite constellation.  相似文献   

Current Vertical Motion Analysis of Northwestern Margin of Ordos Based on Precise Leveling     

Guo Baozhen  Ta L  Zhou Haitao  Su Guangli 《中国地震研究》2018,32(1):113-118

Ordos block was squeezed by the Qinghai-Tibetan block and North China block, and the tectonic activity was intense. In the periphery of Ordos block, there was a series of folds zones and compressed faults with complicate structures. This paper used three-phase data of 1980,1990 and 2014 to calculate vertical velocity of Northwestern margin of Ordos and the analytical results indicated that ① the Hetao basin between the rise of Yinshan fault block and Ordos fault block showed relatively subsidence, in which Linhe basin was the most evident and the subsidence rate was about 2-4mm/a. The subsidence rate of Jartai -Yinchuan rift zone on the western margin of Ordos block was about 2mm/a; ② the whole testing zone exhibited the evident inherited movement characterized by mountain rise and basin subsidence; ③the two leveling section through the northern margin fault and Dengkou-Benjing fault showed that the difference between vertical velocities on two sides of the fault was less than 0.5mm/a.  相似文献   

An improved earthquake catalogue (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≥ 4.0) for Turkey and its near vicinity (1900–2012)     

F. Tuba Kadirioğlu  Recai F. Kartal  Tuğbay Kılıç  Doğan Kalafat  Tamer Y. Duman  Tuba Eroğlu Azak  Selim Özalp  Ömer Emre 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3317-3338

Many catalogues, agency reports and research articles have been published on seismicity of Turkey and its surrounding since 1950s. Given existing magnitude heterogeneity, erroneous information on epicentral location, event date and time, this past published data however is far from fulfilling the required standards. Paucity of a standardized format in the available catalogues have reinforced the need for a refined and updated catalogue for earthquake related hazard and risk studies. During this study, ~37,000 earthquakes and related parametric data were evaluated by utilizing more than 41 published studies and, an integrated database was prepared in order to analyse all parameters acquired from the catalogues and references for each event. Within the scope of this study, the epicentral locations of M ≥ 5.0 events were firstly reappraised based on the updated Active Fault Map of Turkey. An improved catalogue of 12.674 events for the period 1900–2012 was as a result recompiled for the region between 32–45N° and 23–48E° by analyzing in detail accuracy of all seismological parameters available for each event. The events consist of M ≥ 4.0 are reported in several magnitude scales (e.g. moment magnitude, M_w; surface wave magnitude, M_S; body-wave magnitude m_b; local magnitude M_L and duration magnitude M_d) whereas the maximum focal depth reaches up to 225-km. In order to provide homogenous data, the improved catalogue is unified in terms of M_w. Fore-and aftershocks were also removed from the catalogue and completeness analyses were performed both separately for various tectonic sources and as a whole for the study region of interest. Thus, the prepared homogenous and declustered catalogue consisting of 6573 events provides the basis for a reliable input to the seismic hazard assessment studies for Turkey and its surrounding areas.  相似文献   

The 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East: seismogenic sources     

Laurentiu Danciu  Karin Şeşetyan  Mine Demircioglu  Levent Gülen  Mehdi Zare  Roberto Basili  Ata Elias  Shota Adamia  Nino Tsereteli  Hilal Yalçın  Murat Utkucu  Muhammad Asif Khan  Mohammad Sayab  Khaled Hessami  Andrea N. Rovida  Massimiliano Stucchi  Jean-Pierre Burg  Arkady Karakhanian  Hektor Babayan  Mher Avanesyan  Tahir Mammadli  Mahmood Al-Qaryouti  Doğan Kalafat  Otar Varazanashvili  Mustafa Erdik  Domenico Giardini 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3465-3496

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