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31.
In 2007, a companion with planetary mass was found around the pulsating subdwarf B star V391 Pegasi with the timing method, indicating that a previously undiscovered population of substellar companions to apparently single subdwarf B stars might exist. Following this serendipitous discovery, the EXOTIME (http://www.na.astro.it/~silvotti/exotime/) monitoring program has been set up to follow the pulsations of a number of selected rapidly pulsating subdwarf B stars on time scales of several years with two immediate observational goals:
  1. determine $\dot{P}$ of the pulsational periods P
  2. search for signatures of substellar companions in O–C residuals due to periodic light travel time variations, which would be tracking the central star’s companion-induced wobble around the centre of mass
These sets of data should therefore, at the same time, on the one hand be useful to provide extra constraints for classical asteroseismological exercises from the $\dot{P}$ (comparison with “local” evolutionary models), and on the other hand allow one to investigate the preceding evolution of a target in terms of possible “binary” evolution by extending the otherwise unsuccessful search for companions to potentially very low masses. While timing pulsations may be an observationally expensive method to search for companions, it samples a different range of orbital parameters, inaccessible through orbital photometric effects or the radial velocity method: the latter favours massive close-in companions, whereas the timing method becomes increasingly more sensitive toward wider separations. In this paper we report on the status of the on-going observations and coherence analysis for two of the currently five targets, revealing very well-behaved pulsational characteristics in HS?0444+0458, while showing HS?0702+6043 to be more complex than previously thought.  相似文献   
32.
A process chain for the definition and the performance assessment of an operational regional warning model for rainfall-induced landslides, based on rainfall thresholds, is proposed and tested in a landslide-prone area in the Campania region, southern Italy. A database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003–2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall threshold equations are defined applying a well-known frequentist method to all the reconstructed rainfall conditions responsible for the documented landslides in the area of analysis. Several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities (percentiles) are evaluated, and nine different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, for each combination, the issuing of warning levels is computed by comparing, over time, the measured rainfall with the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system, i.e. the one providing the best model performance in terms of success and error indicators, is selected employing the “event, duration matrix, performance” (EDuMaP) method.  相似文献   
33.
Despite abundant information on landslides, and on landslide hazard and risk, in Italy, little is known on the direct impact of event landslides on road networks and on the related economic costs. We investigated the physical and economic damage caused by two rainfall-induced landslide events in Central and Southern Italy, to obtain road restoration cost statistics. Using a GIS-based method, we exploited road maps and landslide event inventory maps to compute different metrics that quantify the impact of the landslide events on the natural landscape and on the road networks, by road type. The maps were used with cost data obtained from multiple sources, including local authorities, and specific legislation, to evaluate statistically the unit cost per metre of damaged road and the unit cost per square metre of damaging landslide, separately for main and secondary roads. The obtained unit costs showed large variations which we attribute to the different road types in the two study areas and to the different abundance of landslides. Our work confirms the long-standing conundrum of obtaining accurate landslide damage data and outlines the need for reliable, standardized methods to evaluate landslide damage and associated restoration costs that regional and local administrations can use rapidly in the aftermath of a landslide event. We conclude recommending that common standardized procedures to collect landslide cost data following each landslide event are established, in Italy and elsewhere. This will allow for more accurate and reliable evaluations of the economic costs of landslide events.  相似文献   
34.
Landslide inventories and their statistical properties   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Landslides are generally associated with a trigger, such as an earthquake, a rapid snowmelt or a large storm. The landslide event can include a single landslide or many thousands. The frequency–area (or volume) distribution of a landslide event quanti?es the number of landslides that occur at different sizes. We examine three well‐documented landslide events, from Italy, Guatemala and the USA, each with a different triggering mechanism, and ?nd that the landslide areas for all three are well approximated by the same three‐parameter inverse‐gamma distribution. For small landslide areas this distribution has an exponential ‘roll‐over’ and for medium and large landslide areas decays as a power‐law with exponent ‐2·40. One implication of this landslide distribution is that the mean area of landslides in the distribution is independent of the size of the event. We also introduce a landslide‐event magnitude scale mL = log(NLT), with NLT the total number of landslides associated with a trigger. If a landslide‐event inventory is incomplete (i.e. smaller landslides are not included), the partial inventory can be compared with our landslide probability distribution, and the corresponding landslide‐event magnitude inferred. This technique can be applied to inventories of historical landslides, inferring the total number of landslides that occurred over geologic time, and how many of these have been erased by erosion, vegetation, and human activity. We have also considered three rockfall‐dominated inventories, and ?nd that the frequency–size distributions differ substantially from those associated with other landslide types. We suggest that our proposed frequency–size distribution for landslides (excluding rockfalls) will be useful in quantifying the severity of landslide events and the contribution of landslides to erosion. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
35.
From mid-October to 22 November 2000, the western Liguria Region of Italy experienced prolonged and intense rainfall, with cumulative values exceeding 1000 mm in 45 days. The severe rainfall sequence ended on November 23 with a high-intensity storm that dumped more than 180 mm of rain in 24 h. The high-intensity event caused flooding and triggered more than 1000 soils slips and debris flows and a few large, complex landslides. Slope failures caused three fatalities and severe damage to roads, private homes, and agriculture. Large (1:13,000) and very large (1:5000) scale colour aerial photographs were taken 45 days after the event over the areas most affected by the landslides. Through the interpretation of the 334 photographs covering an area of 500 km2, we prepared a landslide inventory map that shows 1204 landslides, for a total landslide area of 1.6 km2. We identified the rainfall conditions that triggered landslides in the Armea valley using cumulative- and continuous-rainfall data, combined with detailed information on the time of landslide occurrence. Landslide activity initiated 8 to 10 h after the beginning of the storm, and the most abundant activity occurred in response to rainfall intensities of 8 to 10 mm per hour. For the Ceriana Municipality, an area where the landslides were numerous in November 2000, we also collected information about a historical event that occurred on 8–11 December 1910 and triggered abundant landslides resulting in severe economic damage. A comparison of the damage caused by the historical and the recent landslide events indicated that damage caused by the 1910 historical event was more diffused but less costly than the damage caused by the 2000 event.  相似文献   
36.
Comprehensive information about the spatial distribution of the subsurface hydraulic properties is crucial to model groundwater flow, to predict solute transport in aquifers and to design remediation actions. In this work, a Bayesian Geostatistical approach, as implemented in bgaPEST, was adopted to estimate the hydraulic properties of a well field located at the Campus of Science and Technology of the University of Parma (Northern Italy), in a contest of a highly parameterized inversion. Head data, collected by means of multi frequency oscillatory pumping tests, were used to both estimate the hydraulic parameters and validate the results. The groundwater flow processes were modelled by means of MODFLOW 2005 and an adjoint-state formulation of the same software was used to efficiently calculate the sensitivity matrix, required by the inverse procedure. The Bayesian Geostatistical approach estimated the hydraulic conductivity and specific storage fields, handling a large number of parameters. The results of the inversion are consistent with the alluvial nature of the investigated aquifer and the preliminary traditional pumping tests carried out at the site.  相似文献   
37.
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38.
Ground deformation affecting the Umbria region (central Italy) in the 9-year period from 1992 to 2000 was investigated through multi-temporal Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR). For the purpose, the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) technique was adopted, which allows studying the temporal evolution of the detected deformation at two spatial scales: a low-resolution (regional) scale, and a full-resolution (local) scale. For the analysis, SAR data acquired by the European Remote Sensing (ERS-1/2) satellites along ascending and descending orbits were used. The detected deformation was analysed to investigate its relevance to geophysical, geomorphologic, and human-induced processes that may result in hazardous conditions to the population of Umbria. Low-resolution deformation data were used to: (i) determine the amount of displacement caused by the Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence from September 1997 to April 1998 in the Foligno area, (ii) determine the number and percentage of the known landslides that can be monitored by the DInSAR technology in the investigated area, and (iii) identify and measure subsidence induced by exploitation of a confined aquifer in the Valle Umbra. Results indicate that earthquakes moved through the Foligno area westwards up to 3.9 cm and with an uplift reaching 1.7 cm. Intersection in a GIS of the low-resolution deformation maps with a detailed landslide inventory map allowed the determination that the portion of landslides that can be monitored by the SBAS-DInSAR technique in Umbria ranges from 2.7% to 3.4%, and the percentage of the total landslide area ranges from 10.4% to 12.8%. In the Valle Umbra, a dependency was found between the time and the amount of detected ground deformation, and the record of water withdrawal. The full-resolution deformation data were used to investigate the movement of the Ivancich landslide, in the Assisi Municipality. Joint analysis of the spatial and the temporal characteristics of the ground displacement allowed the formulation of a hypothesis on the landslide geometry and deformation pattern.  相似文献   
39.
Use of GIS Technology in the Prediction and Monitoring of Landslide Hazard   总被引：55，自引：2，他引：53  
Carrara  A.  Guzzetti  F.  Cardinali  M.  Reichenbach  P. 《Natural Hazards》1999,20(2-3):117-135
Technologies such as Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have raised great expectations as potential means of coping with natural disasters, including landslides. However, several misconceptions on the potential of GIS are widespread. Prominent among these is the belief that a landslide hazard map obtained by systematic data manipulation within a GIS is assumed to be more objective than a comparable hand-made product derived from the same input data and founded on the same conceptual model. Geographical data can now be handled in a GIS environment by users who are not experts in either GIS or natural hazard process fields. The reality of the successful application of GIS within the landslide hazard domain seems to be somewhat less attractive than current optimistic expectations.In spite of recent achievements, the use of GIS in the domain of prevention and mitigation of natural catastrophes remains a pioneering activity. Diffusion of the technology is still hampered by factors such as the difficulty in acquiring appropriate raw data, the intrinsic complexity of predictive models, the lack of efficient graphical user interfaces, the high cost of digitisation, and the persistence of bottlenecks in hardware capabilities.In addition, researchers are investing more in tuning-up hazard models founded upon existing, often unreliable data than in attempting to initiate long-term projects for the acquisition of new data on the causes of catastrophic events. Governmental institutions are frequently involved in risk reduction projects whose design and implementation appear to be governed more by political issues than by technical ones. There is an unfortunate general tendency to search for data which can be collected at low cost rather than attempting to capture the information which most readily explains the causes of a disaster.If the technical, cultural, economic and political reasons for this unhealthy state cannot be adequately tackled, the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction will probably come to an end without achieving significant advances in the prediction and control of natural disasters.  相似文献   
40.
A MHD theory of combined Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) and Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instabilities for a transition layer with two different scale lengths (Δ and δ for the variation of velocity/magnetic fields and density, respectively) is presented. The study is motivated by reports of magnetopauses with no low latitude boundary layer, in which a sharp density drop over a distance δ?Δ is observed (“pristine” magnetopauses (J. Geophys. Res. 101 (1996) 49). The theory ignores compressibility effects and applies to subsonic regions of the dayside magnetopause. The RT effect is included to account for temporary periods of acceleration of the magnetopause, caused by sudden changes of the solar wind dynamic pressure. For small wavelengths λ, such that δ?λ?Δ, a WKB solution shows that the velocity gradient operates, together with magnetic tensions, to attenuate or even stabilize the Rayleigh-Taylor instability within a certain wavelength range. An exact dispersion relation for flute modes, valid for all λ, in the form of a fourth order polynomial for the complex frequency ω, is obtained from a model with a constant velocity gradient, dV/dy within Δ, and with δ→0. Flute modes are possible because of the existence of bands of very small magnetic shear on the dayside magnetopause (J. Geophys. Res. 103 (1998) 6703). The exact solution allows for a study of the change of the action of the velocity gradient with λ from the long-λ range where dV/dy is KH destabilizing to the short-λ range where dV/dy produces a stabilizing effect. Both, the WKB approximation and the well known tangential discontinuity model (Δ→0) are recovered as limiting cases of the exact solution. Properties of the KH and RT instabilities, for different density ratios on either side of the magnetopause, are described. For flute modes, at very small λ the RT instability grows faster and becomes the dominant effect. However, it is shown that the growth rate remains bounded at a finite value as λ→0, when a theory with a finite δ model is considered. To study configurations with finite, arbitrary, δ/Δ ratios, the MHD perturbation equations are solved numerically, using hyperbolic tangent functions for both the density and velocity transitions across the magnetopause. To examine the influence of different δ/Δ ratios on the growth rates of KH and RT, calculations are performed for different δ/Δ, with and without acceleration, and for two different density ratios. It is found that the general features exhibited by the constant dV/dy model, are confirmed by these numerical solutions. The stability of pristine magnetopauses, and the possibility of observing some theoretical predictions during magnetopause crossings in ongoing missions, are discussed.  相似文献   
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