Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies     

Vincent Artus  Louis J. Durlofsky  Jérôme Onwunalu  Khalid Aziz 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(4):389-404

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.  相似文献   

Study of geothermal water intrusion due to groundwater exploitation in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

E. Leticia Flores-Márquez  Gabriel Jiménez-Suárez  Raymundo G. Martínez-Serrano  René E. Chávez  Daniel Silva Pérez 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(7):1216-1230

Significant intrusion of geothermal water into fresh groundwater takes place in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico. The decline in the potentiometric surface due to the overexploitation of the groundwater induces this intrusion. This hydrological system comprises three aquifers located in Plio-Quaternary volcanic sediments and Mesozoic calcareous rocks. The hydraulic balance of the aquifer shows that the annual output exceeds the natural inputs by 12 million m³. Between 1973 and 2002, a drop in the potentiometric surface, with an 80 m cone of depression, was identified in a 5-km-wide area located southwest of the city of Puebla. Chemical analyses performed on water samples since 1990 have shown an increase in total dissolved solids (TDS) of more than 500 mg/L, coinciding with the region showing a cone of depression in the potentiometric surface. A three-dimensional flow and transport model, based on the hydrogeological and geophysical studies, was computed by using the MODFLOW and MT3D software. This model reproduces the evolution of the aquifer system during the last 30 years and predicts for 2010 an additional drawdown in the potentiometric surface of 15 m, and an increase in the geothermal water intrusion.  相似文献   

Reconstructing hydrological variability from testate amoebae analysis in Carpathian peatlands     

C. Schnitchen  D. J. Charman  E. Magyari  M. Braun  I. Grigorszky  B. Tóthmérész  M. Molnár  Zs. Szántó 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(1):1-17

Peatlands offer the potential for high resolution records of water balance over Holocene timescales, yet this potential is under-exploited in many areas of the world. Within Europe, peatlands are mostly confined to areas north of 55° N, but several areas of southern and eastern Europe contain small peatlands which may be suitable for palaeoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper we test the potential of peatlands in the Carpathian region for deriving quantified estimates of water table changes using testate amoebae analysis. A training set for palaeohydrological reconstruction from testate amoebae assemblages was obtained by collecting surface samples from 13 peatlands, including 9 from Hungary and 4 from Transylvania (Romania). Using a simple measure of mean annual water tables estimated from staining of PVC tape, we found that some peatlands were heavily influenced by runoff and groundwater, and were therefore not suitable as modern analogues of ombrotrophic climatically sensitive sites. The relationship between the testate amoebae assemblages in the modern samples and the environmental variables was explored using CCA. The CCA biplot showed that the most important variables are depth to water table and moisture content, confirming that hydrology is a key control on taxon distribution. pH was a secondary gradient. A transfer function for % moisture and depth to water table was established and applied to fossil assemblages from a sequence from Fenyves-tető, Transylvania, Romania. The reconstructed water table shows a number of variations which have parallels with other palaeoclimatic records from Europe and the North Atlantic prominent phases of higher water tables are associated with the periods 8000–8300 cal BP, 3000–2500 cal BP and after 600 cal BP. We suggest that these were periods of particular intensification of westerly airflow which affected eastern Europe as well as western and central Europe.  相似文献   

Diffusion-limited REE uptake by eclogite garnets and its consequences for Lu–Hf and Sm–Nd geochronology     

Susanne Skora  Lukas P. Baumgartner  Nancy J. Mahlen  Clark M. Johnson  Sébastien Pilet  Eric Hellebrand 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2006,152(6):703-720

Garnets from the Zermatt-Saas Fee eclogites contain narrow central peaks for Lu + Yb + Tm ± Er and at least one additional small peak towards the rim. The REE Sm + Eu + Gd + Tb ± Dy are depleted in the cores but show one prominent peak close to the rim. These patterns cannot be modeled using Rayleigh fractionation accompanied by mineral breakdown reactions. Instead, the patterns are well explained using a transient matrix diffusion model where REE uptake is limited by diffusion in the matrix surrounding the porphyroblast. Observed profiles are well matched if a roughly linear radius growth rate is used. The secondary peaks in the garnet profiles are interpreted to reflect thermally activated diffusion due to temperature increase during prograde metamorphism. The model predicts anomalously low ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf and ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios in garnets where growth rates are fast compared to diffusion of the REE, and these results have important implications for Lu–Hf and Sm–Nd geochronology using garnet.  相似文献   

The Removal of Dissolved Metals by Hydroxysulphate Precipitates during Oxidation and Neutralization of Acid Mine Waters, Iberian Pyrite Belt   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

J. Sánchez España  E. López Pamo  E. Santofimia Pastor  J. Reyes Andrés  J. A. Martín Rubí 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2006,12(3):269-298

This study examines the removal of dissolved metals during the oxidation and neutralization of five acid mine drainage (AMD) waters from La Zarza, Lomero, Esperanza, Corta Atalaya and Poderosa mines (Iberian Pyrite Belt, Huelva, Spain). These waters were selected to cover the spectrum of pH (2.2–3.5) and chemical composition (e.g., 319–2,103 mg/L Fe; 2.85–33.3 g/L SO₄⁼) of the IPB mine waters. The experiments were conducted in the laboratory to simulate the geochemical evolution previously recognized in the field. This evolution includes two stages: (1) oxidation of dissolved Fe(II) followed by hydrolysis and precipitation of Fe(III), and (2) progressive pH increase during mixing with fresh waters. Fe(III) precipitates at pH < 3.5 (stages 1 and 2) in the form of schwertmannite, whereas Al precipitates during stage 2 at pH 5.0 in the form of several hydroxysulphates of variable composition (hydrobasaluminite, basaluminite, aluminite). During these stages, trace elements are totally or partially sorbed and/or coprecipitated at different rates depending basically on pH, as well as on the activity of the SO₄⁼ anion (which determines the speciation of metals). The general trend for the metals which are chiefly present as aqueous free cations (Pb²⁺, Zn²⁺, Cu²⁺, Cd²⁺, Mn²⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺) is a progressive sorption at increasing pH. On the other hand, As and V (mainly present as anionic species) are completely scavenged during the oxidation stage at pH < 3.5. In waters with high activities (> 10⁻¹) of the SO ₄⁼ ion, some elements like Al, Zn, Cd, Pb and U can also form anionic bisulphate complexes and be significantly sorbed at pH < 5. The removal rates at pH 7.0 range from around 100% for As, V, Cu and U, and 60–80% for Pb, to less than 20% for Zn, Co, Ni and Mn. These processes of metal removal represent a significant mechanism of natural attenuation in the IPB.  相似文献   

Synchrotron IR study of hydrous ringwoodite (γ-Mg2SiO4) up to 30 GPa     

E. M. Chamorro Pérez  I. Daniel  J.-C. Chervin  P. Dumas  J. D. Bass  T. Inoue 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2006,33(7):502-510

High-pressure synchrotron infrared (IR) absorption spectra were collected between 650 and 4,000 cm⁻¹ at ambient temperature for hydrous Mg-ringwoodite (γ-Mg₂SiO₄) up to 30 GPa. The main feature in the OH⁻ stretching region is an extremely broad band centred at 3,150 cm⁻¹. The hydrogen bond is strong for most protons and the most probable site for protonation is the tetrahedral edge. With increasing pressure, this band shifts downward while decreasing its integrated intensity until disappearance at a pressure of 25 GPa. Only one band at 2,450 cm⁻¹ and an absorption plateau persist with a maximum wavenumber of 3,800 cm⁻¹. This behaviour is reversible upon pressure release. We interpret this as a second-order phase transition occurring in hydrated Mg-ringwoodite at high pressure (beyond ∼ 25 GPa). This result is compatible with the observation by Kleppe et al. (Phys Chem Miner 29:473–476, 2002a) who suggested the presence of Si–O–Si linkages and/or partial increase in the coordination of Si. Beyond the phase transition, the protons are delocalized and their environment on the ringwoodite structure is probably quite different from that at low pressure. Data obtained in situ at high pressures and temperatures are needed to better understand the effect of protonation on the structure and to better constrain this phase transition.  相似文献   

Mean flow-transient perturbation interaction in the Southern Hemisphere: a simulation using a variable-resolution GCM     

A. Carril  C. Menéndez  M. Nuñez  H. Le Treut 《Climate Dynamics》2002,18(8):661-673

The ability of an atmospheric general circulation model to reproduce fundamental features of the wintertime extratropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation is evaluated with emphasis on the daily variability of the SH mean flow and the mean flow-transient perturbations interaction. Two 10-year simulations using a new version of the LMDZ GCM with a stretched grid scheme centered at 45 °S and forced by climatological SST are performed: a high (144Ꮡ) and low (64Ꭹ) horizontal resolution runs. The performance of both simulations was determined by comparing several simulated fields (zonal wind, temperature, kinetic energy, transient eddy momentum and heat fluxes, Eliassen-Palm fluxes, Eady growth rate and baroclinic conversion term) against the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalyses (ERA). High and low-resolution simulations are similar in many respects; in particular, both experiments reproduce the main patterns of the southern extratropical large-scale circulation satisfactorily. Increasing resolution does not improve universally some spurious aspects of the low resolution simulation (e.g. the cold bias in the high polar troposphere, the debilitated subtropical jet, the low baroclinic conversion rate). Those aspects present little sensitivity to the model resolution. The interaction between transient eddies and zonal mean flow are examined. The low-resolution experiment is able to qualitatively represent the acceleration/deceleration of the mean flow by transient perturbations, south/north of 30 °S with an accuracy similar to that of the high-resolution experiment. Although both experiments represent the baroclinic structure of the mean flow satisfactorily, the model underestimates some transient properties due to the underestimation of the baroclinic conversion term in middle latitudes. Such misrepresentation does not improve with increasing resolution and is related to the relatively weak meridional temperature gradient and the inadequate geographical distribution of the eddy heat fluxes. In particular, the eddy kinetic energy is always underestimated. Eddy kinetic energy does not improve convincingly with increasing resolution, suggesting that the adequate representation of the storm tracks is highly influenced by the physical parametrizations.  相似文献   

Are Natural Climate Forcings Able to Counteract the Projected Anthropogenic Global Warming?     

Cédric Bertrand  Jean-Pascal van Ypersele  André Berger 《Climatic change》2002,55(4):413-427

A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assessthe climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.  相似文献   

A Note On Surface Humidity Measurements In The Cold Canadian Environment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stephen J. Déry  Marc Stieglitz 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,102(3):491-497

In the cold Canadian environment, humidity measurements can be verydifficult to conduct. In this brief communication, humidity observationstaken by two different sensors at six remote Canadian Arctic locations arecompared. The observations collected by Vaisala HMP35CF sensors displaya strong tendency toward the ice saturation point whereas dew cell instrumentsexhibit significantly lower values of relative humidity with respect to ice (RH_i).Humidity data collected by HMP35CF hygrometers are therefore unreliable sincethey are subject to persistent icing that lead them to record values of RH_i near 100%, irrespective of the air temperature. The high humidity bias emerges atmeteorological stations mounted with the HMP35CF probes since these instrumentsare usually neither sheltered nor heated, and are not attended to at regular intervals. Thus, great care must be taken in utilizing humidity data recorded by HMP35CF sensors across the network of climate autostations in Canada.  相似文献   

Contested terrains: Cities and hinterlands in post-apartheid boundary delimitations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Frédéric Giraut  Brij Maharaj 《GeoJournal》2002,57(1-2):39-51

In South Africa attempts are being made to address the socio-spatial distortions of the apartheid era through a more equitable distribution of resources, and the re-drawing of municipal geographical boundaries. However, boundaries are not neutral geographic lines. Boundary changes are often associated with a redistribution of political power and resources. The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of the contemporary territorial and administrative restructuring on urban dynamics in South Africa. More specifically, the focus is on how the process of territorial restructuring impacted on metropolitan areas as well as on secondary cities and their hinterlands. Examining and elucidating the manner in which various social, economic and political forces have manifested themselves in the process of boundary delimitation in a major metropolitan centre as well as adjacent rural areas is a central theme of this paper. There were considerable contestations over the delimitation of new local government boundaries. Affluent metro authorities like that in Durban were opposed to the spatial extension of their boundaries because of the costs of the providing services and infrastructure in the deprived margins. Similarly, there was concern that incorporation of rural areas will result in increased municipal service charges being imposed on these communities. Tensions were heightened between urban and rural regions because traditional leaders believed that their territorial jurisdiction and authority were being undermined. In other parts of the country, the merger of traditionally white and black fragments of secondary cities often resulted in many black locations continuing to be marginalized. There appears to be neither the political will nor the economic capacity to upgrade these zones of marginalized urban communities. While the Municipal Demarcation Board was largely successful in eliminating the political geography of apartheid at a macro- scale, this paper suggests that the greater challenge for government and policy makers is to reduce the socio-spatial and economic inequalities which appears to be still very high and perhaps increasing. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献