Multiobjective analysis of a public wellfield using artificial neural networks   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Coppola EA  Szidarovszky F  Davis D  Spayd S  Poulton MM  Roman E 《Ground water》2007,45(1):53-61

As competition for increasingly scarce ground water resources grows, many decision makers may come to rely upon rigorous multiobjective techniques to help identify appropriate and defensible policies, particularly when disparate stakeholder groups are involved. In this study, decision analysis was conducted on a public water supply wellfield to balance water supply needs with well vulnerability to contamination from a nearby ground water contaminant plume. With few alternative water sources, decision makers must balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing water supply volume from noncontaminated wells while minimizing their vulnerability to contamination from the plume. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed with simulation data from a numerical ground water flow model developed for the study area. The ANN-derived state transition equations were embedded into a multiobjective optimization model, from which the Pareto frontier or trade-off curve between water supply and wellfield vulnerability was identified. Relative preference values and power factors were assigned to the three stakeholders, namely the company whose waste contaminated the aquifer, the community supplied by the wells, and the water utility company that owns and operates the wells. A compromise pumping policy that effectively balances the two conflicting objectives in accordance with the preferences of the three stakeholder groups was then identified using various distance-based methods.  相似文献   

Loss of 40Ar(rad) from leucite-bearing basanite at low temperature: implications on K/Ar dating.     

Kadosa Balogh  Károly Németh  Tetsumaru Itaya  Ferenc Molnár  Robert Stewart  Ngo X. Thanh  Hironobu Hyodo  Lajos Daróczi 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2010,2(3):385-398

The Bakony-Balaton Highland Volcanic Field (BBHVF) is located in the central part of Transdanubia, Pannonian Basin, with over 50 alkali basaltic volcanoes. The basanite plug of Hegyestu erupted in the first phase of volcanic activity. K/Ar and Ar/Ar ages were published for the BBHVF. K/Ar and Ar/Ar ages of the leucite-bearing basanite of Hegyestás were conflicting. This is caused by the special Ar retention feature of leucite in this basanite. K/Ar ages measured in the usual way were 25–45% younger, but after HCl treatment of the rock, or after reducing the baking temperature of the argon extraction line from 250°C to 150°C, they became similar to the Ar/Ar ages. All Ar/Ar determinations were performed after HF treatment. HCl treatment dissolved olivine, nepheline, leucite, magnetite and from 1-1 sample analcime or calcite. K dissolution studies from different locations of Hegyestü have shown that K content is mostly ≈2%, but it may decrease to ≈0.3%. HCl treatment dissolved 28.0–63.5% of the K content. The calculated K concentration for the dissolved part of samples with ~2%K was 4.02-6.42%: showing that leucite is responsible for the low temperature loss of ⁴⁰Ar(rad). Ar may release at low temperature from very finegrained mineral, or when the Ar release mechanism changes. A ⁴⁰Ar(rad) degassing spectrum has been recorded in the 55–295°C range of baking temperature and the data were plotted in the Arrhenius diagram. The diagram shows that a change of the structure in the 145–295°C range caused the loss of ⁴⁰Ar(rad). On fractions of HCl treated rock 7.56±0.17 Ma isochron K/Ar age has been determined. This is regarded as minimum age of eruption and it is similar to the Ar/Ar isochron age (7.78±0.07 Ma).  相似文献   

Modern analogues for Miocene to Pleistocene alkali basaltic phreatomagmatic fields in the Pannonian Basin: “soft-substrate” to “combined” aquifer controlled phreatomagmatism in intraplate volcanic fields Research Article     

Károly Németh  Shane J. Cronin  Miguel J. Haller  Marco Brenna  Gabor Csillag 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2010,2(3):339-361

The Pannonian Basin (Central Europe) hosts numerous alkali basaltic volcanic fields in an area similar to 200 000 km². These volcanic fields were formed in an approximate time span of 8 million years producing smallvolume volcanoes typically considered to be monogenetic. Polycyclic monogenetic volcanic complexes are also common in each field however. The original morphology of volcanic landforms, especially phreatomagmatic volcanoes, is commonly modified. by erosion, commonly aided by tectonic uplift. The phreatomagmatic volcanoes eroded to the level of their sub-surface architecture expose crater to conduit filling as well as diatreme facies of pyroclastic rock assemblages. Uncertainties due to the strong erosion influenced by tectonic uplifts, fast and broad climatic changes, vegetation cover variations, and rapidly changing fluvio-lacustrine events in the past 8 million years in the Pannonian Basin have created a need to reconstruct and visualise the paleoenvironment into which the monogenetic volcanoes erupted. Here phreatomagmatic volcanic fields of the Miocene to Pleistocene western Hungarian alkali basaltic province have been selected and compared with modern phreatomagmatic fields. It has been concluded that the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) in New Zealand could be viewed as a prime modern analogue for the western Hungarian phreatomagmatic fields by sharing similarities in their pyroclastic successions textures such as pyroclast morphology, type, juvenile particle ratio to accidental lithics. Beside the AVF two other, morphologically more modified volcanic fields (Pali Aike, Argentina and Jeju, Korea) show similar features to the western Hungarian examples, highlighting issues such as preservation potential of pyroclastic successions of phreatomagmatic volcanoes.  相似文献   

Managing the inconceivable: participatory assessments of impacts and responses to extreme climate change     

Ferenc L. Toth  Eva Hizsnyik 《Climatic change》2008,91(1-2):81-101

A comprehensive understanding of the implications of extreme climate change requires an in-depth exploration of the perceptions and reactions of the affected stakeholder groups and the lay public. The project on “Atlantic sea level rise: Adaptation to imaginable worst-case climate change” (Atlantis) has studied one such case, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and a subsequent 5–6 m sea-level rise. Possible methods are presented for assessing the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation options in selected European regions by involving representatives of pertinent stakeholders. Results of a comprehensive review of participatory integrated assessment methods with a view to their applicability in climate impact studies are summarized including Simulation-Gaming techniques, the Policy Exercise method, and the Focus Group technique. Succinct presentations of these three methods are provided together with short summaries of relevant earlier applications to gain insights into the possible design options. Building on these insights, four basic versions of design procedures suitable for use in the Atlantis project are presented. They draw on design elements of several methods and combine them to fit the characteristics and fulfill the needs of addressing the problem of extreme sea-level rise. The selected participatory techniques and the procedure designs might well be useful in other studies assessing climate change impacts and exploring adaptation options.  相似文献   

小流域综合管理信息系统集成研究   总被引：14，自引：2，他引：14  

刘高焕  朱会义  蔡强国  甘国辉  Ferko Csillag 《地理研究》2002,21(1):25-33

本文介绍的小流域管理与决策支持信息系统 ,是以小流域综合治理与科学决策为目标 ,以地块为基本操作单元的土壤侵蚀模型、生产潜力模型、成本效益模型与GIS的集成系统。该系统具有数据管理、查询、更新、处理、模型分析和输出等多种功能。分析模型与GIS集成的基本单元是地块 (landunit) ,在地块上实现模型参数的提取与传递、模型计算及显示与分析。在分析各种集成方式的基础上 ,选取了动态连接库及其扩展方式 ,实现了土壤侵蚀模型、生产潜力模型、成本效益模型、规划模块与GIS的紧密集成 ,以统一的图形用户界面 ,服务于水土保持的现代化管理和小流域综合治理  相似文献   

Trends in planetary wave activity inferred from Hungarian radio wave absorption measurements     

Jan Lastovička  Ferenc Märcz 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1995,39(4):420-424

Summary The nighttime and sunset LF radio wave absorption measured at Nagycenk, western Hungary over 1967–1991 is used to infer planetary wave activity and its long-term trend in the upper middle atmosphere (85 – 100 km). The very moderate positive and mostly statistically insignificant trends are consistent with the pattern provided by previous analyses of various day- and night-time absorption measurements. The trends could be of anthropogenic origin.  相似文献   

Climate Policy in Light of Climate Science: The ICLIPS Project     

Ferenc L. Toth 《Climatic change》2003,56(1-2):7-36

The paper introduces the Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) asa decision analytical framework for addressing global climatechange. It is implemented as an integrated assessment model (IAM)developed in the project on Integrated Assessment of ClimateProtection Strategies (ICLIPS). The background and the main objectivesof the project are described and its relationships to other currentintegrated assessment efforts are elucidated. Key features ofthe TWA are compared with those of cost-benefit and cost-effectivenessframeworks. An overview of the ICLIPS IAM framework is providedtogether with its methodological foundations. Main features ofthe individual models are presented, covering the climate, theaggregated economic, and the impact models. Additional componentsof the framework include dynamic mitigation cost functions andan agriculture/land-use model (both incorporated into the fullyintegrated ICLIPS climate-economy model) as well as a globalmulti-region, multi-sector, dynamic general equilibrium model.  相似文献   

Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policies: Part 2 – Model Results and Uncertainty Analysis     

Ferenc L. Toth  Thomas Bruckner  Hans-Martin Füssel  Marian Leimbach  Gerhard Petschel-Held 《Climatic change》2003,56(1-2):57-72

An integrated assessment model (IAM) is applied to explore optionsfor long-term climate policy by identifying permitted emissioncorridors. The options are determined under various assumptionsabout constraints related to acceptable impacts of climate changein terms of alterations induced in natural ecosystems in protectedareas and about acceptable mitigation costs, burden sharingprinciples, and implementation flexibility. The results show thatabout 25% of the protected areas worldwide will witness ecosystemtransformation in the next century even if the costs of emissionreduction are allowed to reach 2% of per-capita consumption. Anuncertainty analysis surveys the implications of modifyingselected key model variables on the existence and shape of theemission corridors. Within plausible ranges of parametervariations, the emission corridor turns out to be rather sensitiveto impact constraints, climatic constraints like the magnitude andrate of the global mean temperature increase, and to aerosolemission scenarios.  相似文献   

Integrated Assessment of Climate Protection Strategies     

Ferenc L. Toth 《Climatic change》2003,56(1-2):1-5

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Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Complex Groundwater Management Problems   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Coppola  Emery  Poulton  Mary  Charles  Emmanuel  Dustman  John  Szidarovszky  Ferenc 《Natural Resources Research》2003,12(4):303-320

As water quantity and quality problems become increasingly severe, accurate prediction and effective management of scarcer water resources will become critical. In this paper, the successful application of artificial neural network (ANN) technology is described for three types of groundwater prediction and management problems. In the first example, an ANN was trained with simulation data from a physically based numerical model to predict head (groundwater elevation) at locations of interest under variable pumping and climate conditions. The ANN achieved a high degree of predictive accuracy, and its derived state-transition equations were embedded into a multiobjective optimization formulation and solved to generate a trade-off curve depicting water supply in relation to contamination risk. In the second and third examples, ANNs were developed with real-world hydrologic and climate data for different hydrogeologic environments. For the second problem, an ANN was developed using data collected for a 5-year, 8-month period to predict heads in a multilayered surficial and limestone aquifer system under variable pumping, state, and climate conditions. Using weekly stress periods, the ANN substantially outperformed a well-calibrated numerical flow model for the 71-day validation period, and provided insights into the effects of climate and pumping on water levels. For the third problem, an ANN was developed with data collected automatically over a 6-week period to predict hourly heads in 11 high-capacity public supply wells tapping a semiconfined bedrock aquifer and subject to large well-interference effects. Using hourly stress periods, the ANN accurately predicted heads for 24-hour periods in all public supply wells. These test cases demonstrate that the ANN technology can solve a variety of complex groundwater management problems and overcome many of the problems and limitations associated with traditional physically based flow models.  相似文献