Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value maximum likelihood estimation and sample size     

F. A. Nava  V. H. Márquez-Ramírez  F. R. Zúñiga  L. Ávila-Barrientos  C. B. Quinteros 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(1):127-135

The Aki-Utsu maximum likelihood method is widely used for estimation of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, but not all authors are conscious of the method’s limitations and implicit requirements. The Aki/Utsu method requires a representative estimate of the population mean magnitude; a requirement seldom satisfied in b-value studies, particularly in those that use data from small geographic and/or time windows, such as b-mapping and b-vs-time studies. Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to determine how large a sample is necessary to achieve representativity, particularly for rounded magnitudes. The size of a representative sample weakly depends on the actual b-value. It is shown that, for commonly used precisions, small samples give meaningless estimations of b. Our results give estimates on the probabilities of getting correct estimates of b for a given desired precision for samples of different sizes. We submit that all published studies reporting b-value estimations should include information about the size of the samples used.  相似文献   

Hybrid method to update the design flood shape for spillway operation in a dam: case study of the Huites Dam,Mexico     

Maritza Liliana Arganis-Juárez  Margarita Preciado-Jiménez  Óscar A. Fuentes-Mariles  Alejandro Mendoza-Reséndiz  Ramón Domínguez-Mora  Faustino De Luna-Cruz 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(8):934-947

To design and review the operation of spillways, it is necessary to estimate design hydrographs, considering their peak flow, shape and volume. A hybrid method is proposed that combines the shape of the design hydrograph obtained with the UNAM Institute of Engineering Method (UNAMIIM) with the peak flow and volume calculated from a bivariate method. This hybrid method is applied to historical data of the Huites Dam, Sinaloa, Mexico. The goal is to estimate return periods for the maximum discharge flows (that account for the damage caused downstream) and the maximum levels reached in the dam (measure of the hydrological dam safety) corresponding to a given spillway and its management policy. Therefore, to validate the method, the results obtained by the flood routing of the 50-year hydrograph are compared with those obtained by the flood routing of the three largest historical floods. Both maximum flow and elevation were in the range of values observed within 37.5–75 years corresponding to the length of the historical record.  相似文献   

Seasonal trend analysis (STA) of MODIS vegetation index time series for the mangrove canopy of the Teacapan-Agua Brava lagoon system,Mexico     

César Alejandro Berlanga-Robles  Arturo Ruiz-Luna  Marta Rocío Nepita Villanueva 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2019,56(3):338-361

Monthly time series, from 2001 to 2016, of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from MOD13Q1 products were analyzed with Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA), assessing seasonal and long-term changes in the mangrove canopy of the Teacapan-Agua Brava lagoon system, the largest mangrove ecosystem in the Mexican Pacific coast. Profiles from both vegetation indices described similar phenological trends, but the EVI was more sensitive in detecting intra-annual changes. We identified a seasonal cycle dominated by Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle mixed patches, with the more closed canopy occurring in the early autumn, and the maximum opening in the dry season. Mangrove patches dominated by Avicennia germinans displayed seasonal peaks in the winter. Curves fitted for the seasonal vegetation indices were better correlated with accumulated precipitation and solar radiation among the assessed climate variables (Pearson’s correlation coefficients, estimated for most of the variables, were r ≥ 0.58 p < 0.0001), driving seasonality for tidal basins with mangroves dominated by L. racemosa and R. mangle. For tidal basins dominated by A. germinans, the maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly precipitation fit better seasonally with the vegetation indices (r ≥ 0.58, p < 0.0001). Significant mangrove canopy reductions were identified in all the analyzed tidal basins (z values for the Mann-Kendall test ≤ ?1.96), but positive change trends were recorded in four of the basins, while most of the mangrove canopy (approximately 87%) displayed only seasonal canopy changes or canopy recovery (z > ?1.96). The most resilient mangrove forests were distributed in tidal basins dominated by L. racemosa and R. mangle (Mann-Kendal Tau t ≥ 0.4, p ≤ 0.03), while basins dominated by A. germinans showed the most evidence of disturbance.  相似文献   

Reef fish structure assemblages in oceanic islands of the eastern tropical Pacific: Revillagigedo Archipelago and Clipperton atoll     

Manon Fourrire  Hctor Reyes‐Bonilla  Cristian Moiss Galvn‐Villa  Arturo Ayala Bocos  Fabin Alejandro Rodríguez‐Zaragoza 《Marine Ecology》2019,40(3)

Revillagigedo Archipelago and Clipperton atoll are oceanic islands located in the eastern tropical Pacific. The composition and trophic structure of their fish assemblages have never been characterized in detail, and the aim of this study was therefore to analyse the community structure and assess the similarity of fish assemblages between these two areas. Underwater visual fish censuses were conducted using band transects at two depth levels in three islands of the Revillagigedo Archipelago (Socorro, San Benedicto, and Roca Partida) and at Clipperton atoll. We calculated ecological indices (density, richness, Shannon diversity, Pielou evenness, and taxonomic distinctiveness) for each transect. These were compared in order to determine quantitative differences among the islands and bathymetric levels. Qualitative analyses (ANOSIM, nMDS, and SIMPER) were also performed. Finally, we analysed the trophic structure of the assemblages and the functional diversity of the four studied sites. The results showed significant differences for all indices, except diversity (H′). Roca Partida was the site with greatest abundance and richness due to the presence of pelagic species in large numbers. No significant differences were found in functional diversity, suggesting a high degree of ecological redundancy. Lower‐level carnivores with mean trophic level values of between 3.3 and 3.8 dominated both areas. The ordination analysis did not show a clear difference in fish composition among the islands, although Clipperton atoll has a particular fauna characterized by endemic species (Thalassoma robertsoni and Stegastes baldwini). In conclusion, the fish communities of the studied areas seem quite similar, but their assemblage structure differs. In particular, Clipperton is differentiated by the influence of endemic species.  相似文献   

Exploring the reservoir potential of Lower Cretaceous Clinoforms in the Fingerdjupet Subbasin,Norwegian Barents Sea     

Bjørn K. L. Bryn  Juha Ahokas  Stafano Patruno  Stian Schjelderup  Camilla Hinna  Caroline Lowrey  Alejandro Escalona 《Basin Research》2020,32(2):332-347

Sandy clinothems are of interest as hydrocarbon reservoirs but there is no proven, economic, clinothem reservoir in the Norwegian Barents Sea. We used high-resolution, 2D and 3D seismic, including proprietary data, to identify a previously untested, Barremian, clinoform wedge in the Fingerdjupet Subbasin (FSB). Data from recent well 7322/7-1 plus seismic have been used to characterize this wedge and older Lower Cretaceous clinoforms in the FSB. In the latest Hauterivian – early Barremian, during post-rift tectonic quiescence, shelf-edge clinoforms (foreset height > 150 m) prograded into an under-filled basin. Increased sediment input was related to regional uplift of the hinterland (northern Barents Shelf). Early Barremian erosion in the north-western FSB and mass wasting towards the SE were followed by deposition of delta-scale (<80 m high), high-angle (c. 8°) clinoform sets seaward of older shelf-edge clinoforms. This may be the local expression of a regional, early Barremian, regressive event. By the close of the Barremian, clinoforms had prograded, within a narrow, elongate basin, across the FSB and towards the uplifted Loppa High. A seismic wedge of high-angle (10–12°), low-relief, delta-scale (25–80 m) clinoform sets occurs between shelf-edge clinoforms to the NW and the uplifted area to the SE. Well 7322/7-1, positioned on a direct hydrocarbon indicator, <1 km NNW of the high-angle, low-relief, delta-scale clinoforms, found upward coarsening siltstone-cycles linked to relative sea-level fluctuations on a marine shelf. Sand may have accumulated, offshore from the well, in high-angle, low-relief foresets of the delta-scale clinothems (which are typical geometries elsewhere interpreted as ‘delta-scale, sand-prone subaqueous clinoforms’). Deposition was controlled by the paleosurface, storms and longshore currents on an otherwise mud-dominated shelf. The study highlights challenges associated with exploration for sandstone reservoirs in seismic wedges on an outer shelf.  相似文献   

Development of a foraminifera-based transfer function in the Basque marshes, N. Spain: Implications for sea-level studies in the Bay of Biscay     

Eduardo Leorri  Benjamin P. Horton  Alejandro Cearreta 《Marine Geology》2008,251(1-2):60-74

In order to reconstruct former sea level we have developed a foraminifera-based transfer function using three models based on a modern dataset of 59 samples and 23 species obtained from four Basque marshes in Northern Spain. The relationship between observed and foraminifera-predicted elevation illustrated the strong performance of the transfer function (r²_jack ranges from 0.74 to 0.81). These results indicated that precise reconstructions of former sea levels are possible (error ranges from 0.11 to 0.19 m). The transfer function was used to calibrate the foraminiferal assemblages collected from a 50 cm salt marsh core. We placed the foraminifera-based reconstructions into a temporal framework using ¹³⁷Cs, Pb concentrations, and ²¹⁰Pb-derived sediment accumulation rates. The resulting relative sea-level curve is in good agreement with regional tide-gauge data. Both instrumental data and microfossil records suggest a rate of relative sea-level rise of approximately 2 mm yr^− 1 for the 20th century.  相似文献