A multimodel intercomparison of resolution effects on precipitation: simulations and theory     

Sara A. Rauscher  Travis A. O’Brien  Claudio Piani  Erika Coppola  Filippo Giorgi  William D. Collins  Patricia M. Lawston 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(7-8):2205-2218

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The magmatic feeding system of El Reventador volcano (Sub-Andean zone,Ecuador) constrained by texture,mineralogy and thermobarometry of the 2002 erupted products   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Filippo Ridolfi  Matteo Puerini  Alberto Renzulli  Michele Menna  Theofilos Toulkeridis 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

After a 26 years long quiescence El Reventador, an active volcano of the rear-arc zone of Ecuador, entered a new eruptive cycle which lasted from 3 November to mid December 2002. The initial sub-Plinian activity (VEI 4 with andesite pyroclastic falls and flows) shifted on 6 and 21 November to an effusive stage characterized by the emission of two lava flows (andesite to low-silica andesite Lava-1 and basaltic andesite Lava-2) containing abundant gabbro cumulates. The erupted products are medium to high-K calc-alkaline and were investigated with respect to major element oxides, mineral chemistry, texture and thermobarometry. Inferred pre-eruptive magmatic processes are dominated by the intrusion of a high-T mafic magma (possibly up to 1165 ± 15 °C) into an andesite reservoir, acting as magma mixing and trigger for the eruption. Before this refilling, the andesite magma chamber was characterized by water content of 5.3 ± 1.0%, high oxygen fugacity (> NNO + 2) and temperatures, in the upper and lower part of the reservoir, of 850 and 952 ± 65 °C respectively. Accurate amphibole-based barometry constrains the magma chamber depth between 8.2 and 11.3 km (± 2.2 km). The 6 October 2002 seismic swarm (hypocenters from 10 to 11 km) preceding El Reventador eruption, supports the intrusion of magmas at these depths. The widespread occurrence of disequilibrium features in most of the andesites (e.g. complex mineral zoning and phase overgrowths) indicates that convective self-mixing have been operating together with fractional crystallization (inferred from the cognate gabbro cumulates) before the injection of the basic magma which then gave rise to basaltic andesite and low-silica andesite hybrid layers. Magma mixing in the shallow chamber is inferred from the anomalous SiO₂–Al₂O₃ whole-rock pattern and strong olivine disequilibria. Both lavas show three types of amphibole breakdown rims mainly due to heating (mixing processes) and/or relatively slow syn-eruptive ascent rate (decompression) of the magmas. The lack of any disequilibrium textures in the pumices of the 3 November fall deposit suggest that pre-eruptive mixing did not occur in the roof zone of the chamber. A model of the subvolcanic feeding system of El Reventador, consistent with the intrusion of a low-Al₂O₃ crystal-rich basic magma into an already self-mixed andesite shallow reservoir, is here proposed. It is also inferred that before entering the shallow chamber the “basaltic” magma underwent a polybaric crystallization at deeper crustal levels.  相似文献   

Numerical modeling of space-time wave extremes using WAVEWATCH III     

Francesco Barbariol  Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves  Alvise Benetazzo  Filippo Bergamasco  Luciana Bertotti  Sandro Carniel  Luigi Cavaleri  Yung Y. Chao  Arun Chawla  Antonio Ricchi  Mauro Sclavo  Hendrik Tolman 《Ocean Dynamics》2017,67(3-4):535-549

A novel implementation of parameters estimating the space-time wave extremes within the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III (WW3) is presented. The new output parameters, available in WW3 version 5.16, rely on the theoretical model of Fedele (J Phys Oceanogr 42(9):1601-1615, 2012) extended by Benetazzo et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 45(9):2261–2275, 2015) to estimate the maximum second-order nonlinear crest height over a given space-time region. In order to assess the wave height associated to the maximum crest height and the maximum wave height (generally different in a broad-band stormy sea state), the linear quasi-determinism theory of Boccotti (2000) is considered. The new WW3 implementation is tested by simulating sea states and space-time extremes over the Mediterranean Sea (forced by the wind fields produced by the COSMO-ME atmospheric model). Model simulations are compared to space-time wave maxima observed on March 10th, 2014, in the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy), by a stereo camera system installed on-board the “Acqua Alta” oceanographic tower. Results show that modeled space-time extremes are in general agreement with observations. Differences are mostly ascribed to the accuracy of the wind forcing and, to a lesser extent, to the approximations introduced in the space-time extremes parameterizations. Model estimates are expected to be even more accurate over areas larger than the mean wavelength (for instance, the model grid size).  相似文献   

Changes in European temperature extremes can be predicted from changes in PDF central statistics   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Joan Ballester  Filippo Giorgi  Xavier Rodó 《Climatic change》2010,98(1-2):277-284

Although uncertainties are still large, many potentially dangerous effects have already been identified concerning the impacts of global warming on human societies. For example, the record-breaking 2003 summer heat wave in Europe has given a glimpse of possible future European climate conditions. Here we use an ensemble of regional climate simulations for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries over Europe to show that frequency, length and intensity changes in warm and cold temperature extremes can be derived to a close approximation from the knowledge of changes in three central statistics, the mean, standard deviation and skewness of the Probability Distribution Function, for which current climate models are better suited. In particular, the effect of the skewness parameter appears to be crucial, especially in the case of cold extremes, since it mostly explains the relative warming of these events compared to the whole distribution. An application of this finding is that the future impacts of extreme heat waves and cold spells on non-climatological variables (e.g., mortality) can be estimated to a first-order approximation from observed time series of daily temperature transformed in order to account for simulated changes in these three statistics.  相似文献   

An atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation     

Vincenzo Artale  Sandro Calmanti  Adriana Carillo  Alessandro Dell’Aquila  Marine Herrmann  Giovanna Pisacane  Paolo M. Ruti  Gianmaria Sannino  Maria Vittoria Struglia  Filippo Giorgi  Xunqiang Bi  Jeremy S. Pal  Sara Rauscher 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(5):721-740

We present an atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean basin, called the PROTHEUS system, composed by the regional climate model RegCM3 as the atmospheric component and by a regional configuration of the MITgcm model as the oceanic component. The model is applied to an area encompassing the Mediterranean Sea and compared to a stand-alone version of its atmospheric component. An assessment of the model performances is done by using available observational datasets. Despite a persistent bias, the PROTHEUS system is able to capture the inter-annual variability of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) and also the fine scale spatio-temporal evolution of observed SST anomalies, with spatial correlation as high as 0.7 during summer. The close inspection of a 10-day strong wind event during the summer of 2000 proves the capability of the PROTHEUS system to correctly describe the daily evolution of SST under strong air–sea interaction conditions. As a consequence of the model’s skill in reproducing observed SST and wind fields, we expect a reliable estimation of air–sea fluxes. The model skill in reproducing climatological land surface fields is in line with that of state of the art regional climate models.  相似文献   

Simulation of the Indian monsoon using the RegCM3–ROMS regional coupled model     

J. Venkata Ratnam  Filippo Giorgi  Akshara Kaginalkar  Stefano Cozzini 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(1):119-139

A regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model was developed to study the role of air–sea interactions in the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. The coupled model includes the regional climate model (RegCM3) as atmospheric component and the regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) as oceanic component. The two-way coupled model system exchanges sea surface temperature (SST) from the ocean to the atmospheric model and surface wind stress and energy fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean model. The coupled model is run for four years 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2003 and the results are compared with observations and atmosphere-only model runs employing Reynolds SSTs as lower boundary condition. It is found that the coupled model captures the main features of the Indian monsoon and simulates a substantially more realistic spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall compared to the uncoupled atmosphere-only model. The intraseasonal oscillations are also better simulated in the coupled model compared to the atmosphere-only model. These improvements are due to a better representation of the feedbacks between the SST and convection and highlight the importance of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the Indian monsoon.  相似文献   

Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system. Part 2: future climate projection (2021–2050)     

Eun-Soon Im  Joong-Bae Ahn  Won-Tae Kwon  Filippo Giorgi 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(2-3):239-254

An analysis of simulated future surface climate change over the southern half of Korean Peninsula using a RegCM3-based high-resolution one-way double-nested system is presented. Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are discussed for the 30-year-period of 2021–2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 based on the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario. Warming in the range of 1–4°C is found throughout the analysis region and in all seasons. The warming is maximum in the higher latitudes of the South Korean Peninsula and in the cold season. A large reduction in snow depth is projected in response to the increase of winter minimum temperature induced by the greenhouse warming. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variation and a substantial regional variability. In particular, we find a large increase of wintertime precipitation over Korea, especially in the upslope side of major mountain systems. Summer precipitation increases over the northern part of South Korea and decreases over the southern regions, indicating regional diversity. The precipitation change also shows marked intraseasonal variations throughout the monsoon season. The temperature change shows a positive trend throughout 2021–2050 while the precipitation change is characterized by pronounced interdecadal variations. The PDF of the daily temperature is shifted towards higher values and is somewhat narrower in the scenario run than the reference one. The number of frost days decreases markedly and the number of hot days increases. The regional distribution of heavy precipitation (over 80 mm/day) changes considerably, indicating changes in flood vulnerable regions. The climate change signal shows pronounced fine scale signal over Korea, indicating the need of high-resolution climate simulations  相似文献   

全球变暖对中国区域积雪变化影响的数值模拟   总被引：9，自引：7，他引：2  

石英  高学杰  吴佳  Filippo Giorgi  董文杰 《冰川冻土》2010,32(2)

对20km高水平分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3)所模拟的全球变暖背景下,中国区域未来积雪变化进行了分析.检验了模式对当代(1961-1990年)积雪日数、积雪量、积雪开始和结束时间的模拟,结果表明:与观测相比,模式对这些变量均有较好的模拟能力,但模拟的积雪日数和积雪量偏多,积雪开始时间偏早,结束日期偏晚.21世纪末(2071-2100年)在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下,中国大部分地区积雪日数和积雪量将减少;积雪开始时间推后,结束时间提前,但在各个地区表现也有所不同,并在个别地区出现相反的变化.将中国区域分为东北、西北、青藏高原3个分区,结果显示:各分区平均积雪量均为减少,积雪开始时间推后,而积雪结束时间则都将提前,其中,青藏高原地区的变化最为显著.  相似文献   

A search for the progenitors of two Type Ia Supernovae in NGC 1316     

Dan Maoz  Filippo Mannucci 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,388(1):421-428

Recent evidence of a young progenitor population for many Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) raises the possibility that evolved intermediate-mass progenitor stars may be detected in pre-explosion images. NGC 1316, a radio galaxy in the Fornax cluster, is a prolific producer of SNe Ia, with four detected since 1980. We analyse Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) pre-explosion images of the sites of two of the SNe Ia that exploded in this galaxy, SN2006dd (a normal Type Ia) and SN2006mr (likely a subluminous, 1991bg-like, SN Ia). Astrometric positions are obtained from optical and near-infrared ground-based images of the events. We find no candidate point sources at either location, and set upper limits on the flux in B, V and I from any such progenitors. We also estimate the amount of extinction that could be present, based on analysis of the surface-brightness inhomogeneities in the HST images themselves. At the distance of NGC 1316, the limits correspond to absolute magnitudes of  ∼−5.5, −5.4  and −6.0 mag in   M _B , M _V   and   M _I   , respectively. Comparison to stellar evolution models argues against the presence at the supernova sites, 3 yr prior to the explosion, of normal stars with initial masses  ≳6 M_⊙  at the tip of their asymptotic-giant branch (AGB) evolution, young post-AGB stars that had initial masses  ≳4 M_⊙  and post-red giant stars of initial masses  ≳9 M_⊙  .  相似文献   

Exhumation of the Dora Maira ultrahigh‐pressure unit by buoyant uprise within a low‐viscosity mantle oblique‐slip shear zone          下载免费PDF全文

Stefan M. Schmalholz  Filippo L. Schenker 《地学学报》2016,28(5):348-355

The Brossasco‐Isasca subunit (BIU) of the Dora Maira massif is currently the only known continental crustal ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) unit in the Western Alps. The peak pressure/temperature conditions are 3.5–4.5 GPa/~730 °C; exhumation from ~3.5 GPa to ~1 GPa occurred within 2.2 ± 1.8 Ma, but the exhumation mechanism is incompletely understood. We present a conceptual model for the buoyancy‐driven exhumation of the BIU inside a low‐viscosity, dense mantle shear zone weakened by increased strain rates due to simultaneous strike‐slip and subduction (oblique‐slip) of the European plate. Two‐dimensional thermo‐mechanical models simulate such a buoyant uprise of an ellipse inside an inclined layer. Simulations (i) show the feasibility of the conceptual model, (ii) fit the pressure/temperature/time record and (iii) constrain effective viscosities. The model is compatible with the (i) small volume of continental crustal UHP rock in the Western Alps, (ii) minor erosion during exhumation and (iii) strike‐slip deformation during the exhumation period.  相似文献