A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)     

Milan Stojković  Jasna Plavšić  Stevan Prohaska  Dragutin Pavlović  Jovan Despotović 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(3):387-400

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.  相似文献   

Environmental controls on clay mineralogy of an Early Jurassic mudrock (Blue Lias Formation,southern England)     

Jean-Fran?ois?DeconinckEmail author  Stephen?P.?Hesselbo  Nicolas?Debuisser  Olivier?Averbuch  Fran?ois?Baudin  Julian?Bessa 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2003,92(2):255-266

We present a dataset including clay mineralogy, gamma-ray spectrometry, organic matter content and magnetic susceptibility of the Hettangian to lowest Sinemurian successions of Dorset and Somerset, southern UK (Blue Lias Formation, Bristol Channel and Wessex basins). In both areas, the clay assemblages comprise predominantly detrital illite, kaolinite and illite/smectite mixed layers. Clays probably originated from the erosion of the Hercynian massifs, the relative proportions of kaolinite and illite being modulated by arid-humid climatic fluctuations. The organic matter (OM) content (types II to IV) ranges up to 12% in both areas. A clear stratigraphical trend in clay mineral assemblages is apparent in Somerset, whereas in Dorset sharp contrasts between adjacent horizons and a greater dilution by carbonate mask the long-term evolution. Correlations between both areas based on similar vertical trends in clay mineral abundance support the suggestion of a hiatus within the angulata Zone of the Dorset succession. As expected, the kaolinite/illite ratio correlates with the Th/K ratio deduced from gamma-ray spectrometry. However, significant departures from the correlation occur in OM-rich intervals, suggesting that Th may be partly adsorbed on to OM particles. Surprisingly, high magnetic susceptibility correlates with abundant kaolinite, not with Fe-rich clays, indicating either that kaolinite is accompanied by a soil-inherited magnetisable phase (possibly iron oxide) or that illite-rich rocks are more strongly diluted by carbonate than are kaolinite-rich strata.  相似文献   

Formation Of Coronal Mhd Shock Waves – I. The Basic Mechanism     

B. Vršnak  S. Lulić 《Solar physics》2000,196(1):157-180

The formation and evolution of a large amplitude MHD perturbation propagating perpendicular to the magnetic field in a perfectly conducting low plasma is studied. The perturbation is generated by an abrupt expansion of the source region. Explicit expressions for the time and the distance needed for the transformation of the perturbation's leading edge into a shock wave are derived. The results are applied to coronal conditions and the dynamic spectra of the radio emission excited by the shock are synthesized, reproducing metric and kilometric type II bursts. The features corresponding to the metric type II burst precursor and the moving type IV burst in the case of kilometric type II bursts are identified. A specific radio signature that is sometimes observed at the onset of a metric type II burst is found to appear immediately before the shock wave formation due to the associated growth of the magnetic field gradient. Time delays and starting frequencies of bursts' onsets are calculated and presented as a function of the impulsiveness of the source-region expansion, using different values of the ambient Alfvén velocity and various time profiles of the expansion velocity. The results are confronted with the observations of metric and kilometric type II solar radio bursts.  相似文献   

The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection   总被引：3，自引：11，他引：3  

Frédéric Hourdin  Ionela Musat  Sandrine Bony  Pascale Braconnot  Francis Codron  Jean-Louis Dufresne  Laurent Fairhead  Marie-Angèle Filiberti  Pierre Friedlingstein  Jean-Yves Grandpeix  Gerhard Krinner  Phu LeVan  Zhao-Xin Li  François Lott 《Climate Dynamics》2006,27(7-8):787-813

The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL–CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley–Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke’s convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel’s scheme improves the representation of the Hadley–Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke’s parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model.  相似文献   

Seeding agent dispersion within convective cloud as simulated by a 3-D numerical model     

M. Ćurić  D. Janc  V. Vučković 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2006,92(3-4):205-216

Summary The three-dimensional mesoscale cloud-resolving model ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) was used to investigate the dispersal of an inert seeding agent within a cumulonimbus (Cb) cloud developing from two different initial states. In this paper, we stress the influence vortices in the cloud have on seeding agent dispersion. If a strong directional ambient wind shear is present in the lowest layer, a vortex pair formed at the flanks of the simulated cloud. Following the velocity field, a considerable amount of the injected seeding agent would be thrown out to the rear of the cloud, where both updrafts associated with vortices and downdrafts occurred. After a short time the agent was present only in the cloud periphery. If the Cb cloud developed under conditions where directional ambient wind shear did not exist, seeding agent dispersion would be quite different. In this case, almost all the seeding agent was transported into the main updraft, while the residence time of the agent within the cloud was longer due to the weaker cloud dynamics. Therefore, we must pay attention to whether or not the cloud contains vortices when we make the decision where to seed. This is necessary in order to minimize the loss of seeding material.  相似文献   

Comparison of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge     

K. Pandžić  I. Šimunić  F. Tomić  S. Husnjak  T. Likso  D. Petošić 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2006,85(1-2):107-115

Summary This paper presents an the evaluation of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge using weather, pedological and phenological parameters. One model uses modified Palmer’s procedure for the calculation of water balance components and the second two use empirical multiple linear regression. The models have been applied to data of an amelioration experimental field in central Croatia (south-western part of the Pannonian Lowland), where a set of average 10-day air temperature and relative humidity data, average wind speed, cumulative precipitation and drain discharge amounts, insolation and soil moisture data and vegetation indices have been collected. The experiment has been performed during the period 1990–1992. The models have been tested by comparing estimated and observed 10-day drain discharge amounts. All models mainly give acceptable cumulative results although their accuracy depends on the season.  相似文献   

Decoupling of arsenic and iron release from ferrihydrite suspension under reducing conditions: a biogeochemical model     

André Burnol  Francis Garrido  Philippe Baranger  Catherine Joulian  Marie-Christine Dictor  Françoise Bodénan  Guillaume Morin  Laurent Charlet 《Geochemical transactions》2007,8(1):12

High levels of arsenic in groundwater and drinking water are a major health problem. Although the processes controlling the release of As are still not well known, the reductive dissolution of As-rich Fe oxyhydroxides has so far been a favorite hypothesis. Decoupling between arsenic and iron redox transformations has been experimentally demonstrated, but not quantitatively interpreted. Here, we report on incubation batch experiments run with As(V) sorbed on, or co-precipitated with, 2-line ferrihydrite. The biotic and abiotic processes of As release were investigated by using wet chemistry, X-ray diffraction, X-ray absorption and genomic techniques. The incubation experiments were carried out with a phosphate-rich growth medium and a community of Fe(III)-reducing bacteria under strict anoxic conditions for two months. During the first month, the release of Fe(II) in the aqueous phase amounted to only 3% to 10% of the total initial solid Fe concentration, whilst the total aqueous As remained almost constant after an initial exchange with phosphate ions. During the second month, the aqueous Fe(II) concentration remained constant, or even decreased, whereas the total quantity of As released to the solution accounted for 14% to 45% of the total initial solid As concentration. At the end of the incubation, the aqueous-phase arsenic was present predominately as As(III) whilst X-ray absorption spectroscopy indicated that more than 70% of the solid-phase arsenic was present as As(V). X-ray diffraction revealed vivianite Fe(II)₃(PO₄)₂.8H₂O in some of the experiments. A biogeochemical model was then developed to simulate these aqueous- and solid-phase results. The two main conclusions drawn from the model are that (1) As(V) is not reduced during the first incubation month with high Eh values, but rather re-adsorbed onto the ferrihydrite surface, and this state remains until arsenic reduction is energetically more favorable than iron reduction, and (2) the release of As during the second month is due to its reduction to the more weakly adsorbed As(III) which cannot compete against carbonate ions for sorption onto ferrihydrite. The model was also successfully applied to recent experimental results on the release of arsenic from Bengal delta sediments.  相似文献   

An immersed boundary method for compressible multiphase flows: application to the dynamics of pyroclastic density currents     

Mattia de’ Michieli Vitturi  Tomaso Esposti Ongaro  Augusto Neri  Maria Vittoria Salvetti  François Beux 《Computational Geosciences》2007,11(3):183-198

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Spectral analysis of the “Koshava” wind     

M. Unkašević  I. Tošić  M. Obradović 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2007,89(3-4):239-244

Summary “Koshava” is a gusty wind of changeable intensity, blowing from a south-easterly direction, over Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria. It is caused by the interaction between the synoptic circulation and the orography of the Carpathian and the Balkan mountains. This paper analyzes wind data measured at the Belgrade-Observatory during the longest period of consecutive days of “Koshava” which occurred from 14 January to 13 February 1972. Mean hourly wind speed data has been examined using spectral analysis. The power spectra are calculated using autocorrelation spectral analysis, the multi-taper method and wavelet transform. The maximum of which is about 122 h (5 days) corresponds to the time span of synoptic processes.  相似文献   

A Photometric Investigation of the Eclipsing System OO Aql     

G. Djurašević  S. Erkapić 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1998,262(3):305-313

The paper is concerning with the light curve analysis of an active binary system of OO Aql. Basic orbital and physical parameters of this system were estimated by analysing photometric observations by Lafta and Grainger (1985) and Essam et al. (1992). Both groups of observations gave quite different light curves with a conspicuous asymmetry arising from unequal height of successive maxima. A slightly changed programme by Djuraevi (1992a) was applied. The programme was based on the Roche model and it included an option of overcontact configuration and active (bright or dark) spotted regions on the system's components. An inverse-problem method by Djuraevi (1992b) was used to estimate the parameters of the system and active regions. The light-curve analysis suggested a significant change in the system. For Lafta and Grainger's light curves our analysis showed the presence of a dark spotted area near the polar region of the primary component. This dark area covered about 22% of the primary's hemisphere. Essam et al.'s light curves had very complex shape. In this case the mechanism of the mass transfer and the exchange of the thermal energy between the components could produce a bright-spot (bs) area on the secondary, near the Lagrange equilibrium point L₁ around the neck region between the stars. To explain a sharp increase of the system's brightness in the B filter immediately after the secondary minimum, we had to introduce also a hot-spot (hs) area of a high temperature contrast on the secondary. With the increase of the brightness in the V-filter being of much lower intensity, this hot spot region could be taken as a local eruption. The behaviour of the B–V colour index with the orbital phase is in favour of this hypothesis also. The obtained results show that the light-curve changes are due to development and moving of active spot regions on the components.  相似文献