Can we tell more than we can know? The limits of bivariate drought analyses in the United States     

Francesco Serinaldi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(6):1691-1704

The joint occurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events, such as simultaneous precipitation deficit and high temperature, results in the so-called compound events, and has a serious impact on risk assessment and mitigation strategies. Multivariate frequency analysis (MFA) allows a probabilistic quantitative assessment of this risk under uncertainty. Analyzing precipitation and temperature records in the contiguous United States (CONUS), and focusing on the assessment of the degree of rarity of the 2014 California drought, we highlight some critical aspects of MFA that are often overlooked and should be carefully taken into account for a correct interpretation of the results. In particular, we show that an informative exploratory data analysis (EDA) devised to check the basic hypotheses of MFA, a suitable assessment of the sampling uncertainty, and a better understanding of probabilistic concepts can help to avoid misinterpretation of univariate and multivariate return periods, and incoherent conclusions concerning the risk of compound extreme hydroclimatic events. Empirical results show that the dependence between precipitation deficit and temperature across the CONUS can be positive, negative or not significant and does not exhibit significant changes in the last three decades. Focusing on the 2014 California drought as a compound event and based on the data used, the probability of occurrence strongly depends on the selected variables and how they are combined, and is affected by large uncertainty, thus preventing definite conclusions about the actual degree of rarity of this event.  相似文献   

Stratigraphic and geochemical study of the organic-rich black shales in the Tarcău Nappe of the Moldavidian Domain (Carpathian Chain,Romania)     

Habib Belayouni  Angelida Di Staso  Francesco Guerrera  Manuel Martín Martín  Crina Miclǎuş  Francisco Serrano  Mario Tramontana 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2009,98(1):157-176

An integrated stratigraphic analysis has been made of the Tarcău Nappe (Moldavidian Domain, Eastern Romanian Carpathians), coupled with a geochemical study of organic-rich beds. Two Main Sequence Boundaries (Early Oligocene and near to the Oligocene–Aquitanian boundary, respectively) divide the sedimentary record into three depositional sequences. The sedimentation occurred in the central area of a basin supplied by different and opposite sources. The high amount of siliciclastics at the beginning of the Miocene marks the activation of the “foredeep stage”. The successions studied are younger than previously thought and they more accurately date the deformation of the different Miocene phases affecting the Moldavidian Basin. The intervals with black shales identified are related to two main separate anoxic episodes with an age not older than Late Rupelian and not before Late Chattian. The most important organic-rich beds correspond to the Lower Menilites, Bituminous Marls and Lower Dysodilic Shales Members (Interval 2). These constitute a good potential source rock for petroleum, with homogeneous Type II oil-prone organic matter, highly lipidic and thermally immature. The deposition of black shales has been interpreted as occurring within a deep, periodically isolated and tectonically controlled basin.  相似文献   

Erodibility of soft freshwater sediments in Markermeer: the role of bioturbation by meiobenthic fauna     

Miguel Angel de Lucas Pardo  Marieke Bakker  Thijs van Kessel  Francesco Cozzoli  Johan Christian Winterwerp 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(9-10):1137-1150

The Markermeer is a large and shallow man-made freshwater lake in the Netherlands, characterized by its high turbidity. As part of a study aiming to mitigate this high turbidity, we studied the water–bed exchange processes of the lake’s muddy bed. The upper centimeter’s–decimeter’s of the lake bed sediments mainly consists of soft anoxic mud. Recent measurements have proved the existence of a thin oxic layer on top of this soft anoxic mud. This oxic layer, which is much easier to be eroded than the anoxic mud, is believed to be related with Markermeer’s high-turbidity levels. Our hypothesis is that the thin oxic layer develops from the anoxic mud, enhanced by bioturbation. Actually, we will demonstrate that it is the bioturbated state of the bed that increases its erodability, and not the oxidation state of the sediments. In particular, we will refer to bioturbation caused by meiobenthic fauna. The objective of this study is therefore to determine the influence of the development of the thin oxic layer on the water–bed exchange processes, as well as to establish the role of bioturbation on those processes. This is done by quantifying the erosion rate as a function of bed shear stresses, and at different stages of the development of the oxic layer. Our experiments show that bioturbation increases the rate at which Markermeer sediments are eroded by almost an order of magnitude. The short-term fine sediment dynamics in Markermeer are found to be driven by the complex and highly dynamic interactions between physics, chemistry, and biology. Finally, the long-term fine sediment dynamics are driven by the erosion of the historical deposits in the lake’s bed, which is only possible after bioturbation, and which leads to an increase of the stock of sediments in the lake’s muddy bed.  相似文献   

A large class of non-zonal oceanic flows satisfying the arnold-blumen sufficient condition for stability     

Ettore Salusti  Francesco Zirilli 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-4):157-171

Abstract

Recently Andrews has discussed an example of a topographically-forced non-zonal now satisfying the Arnold-Blumen sufficient condition for stability. At large distances from the topographic centre this flow becomes purely zonal and westward. After underlining the richness of solutions of the Andrews model, the present paper goes on to show that Andrews' technique can be applied successfully to a model where the vertical profile of static stability resembles those found in the ocean. In particular we obtain a large class of hydrodynamic stable flows, forced by the bottom topography, for continuously stratified fluids (two layers each with uniform Brunt-Väisälä frequency).  相似文献   

Integrating airborne and multi‐temporal long‐range terrestrial laser scanning with total station measurements for mapping and monitoring a compound slow moving rock slide     

Alessandro Corsini  Cristina Castagnetti  Eleonora Bertacchini  Riccardo Rivola  Francesco Ronchetti  Alessandro Capra 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(11):1330-1338

A slow moving compound rock slide located in the northern Apennines of Italy was mapped and monitored through the integration of Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS), multi‐temporal long‐range Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), and Automated Total Station (ATS) measurements. Landslide features were mapped using a High Resolution Digital Terrain Model (HR‐DTM) obtained by merging ALS and TLS data in an Iterative Closest Point (ICP) procedure. Slope movements in the order of centimeters to a few decimeters were quantified with Differential TLS (D‐TLS) based on a Surface Matching approach and supported by ATS data to define stable reference surfaces. The integrated approach allowed mapping of the composite geomorphic features of the rock slide under examination, revealing its complex dynamic nature and further proving that laser scanning is a versatile and widely applicable tool for slope process analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ESEEM of industrial quartz powders: insights into crystal chemistry of Al defects     

Maurizio?Romanelli  Francesco?Di BenedettoEmail author  Laura?Bartali  Massimo?Innocenti  Gabriele?Fornaciai  Giordano?Montegrossi  Luca?A.?Pardi  Alfonso?Zoleo  Fabio?Capacci 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2012,39(6):479-490

A set of raw industrial materials, that is, pure quartz and quartz-rich mixtures, were investigated through electron paramagnetic resonance and electron spin echo-envelope modulation spectroscopies, with the aim of evaluating the effective role played by defect centres and of assessing whether they can be used to monitor changes in the physical properties of quartz powders with reference to their health effects. The obtained results point to two interactions of the Al defect centres with H⁺, hosted in sites within the channels parallel and perpendicular to the c axis of quartz, respectively. These two Al/H⁺ (h_Al) centres exhibit a weak chemical bond, and their relative amounts appear to be modified/controlled by the thermo-mechanical processes underwent by powders. Indeed, a mechanically promoted inter-conversion between the two kinds of site is suggested. As a consequence, the h_Al centres are effective in monitoring even modest activations of powders, through thermal or mechanical processes, and they are also supposed to play a specific, relevant role in quartz reactivity during the considered industrial processes.  相似文献   

Macroseismic effects highlight site response in Rome and its geological signature     

Paola Sbarra  Valerio De Rubeis  Emiliano Di Luzio  Marco Mancini  Massimiliano Moscatelli  Francesco Stigliano  Patrizia Tosi  Roberto Vallone 《Natural Hazards》2012,62(2):425-443

A detailed analysis of the earthquake effects on the urban area of Rome has been conducted for the L??Aquila sequence, which occurred in April 2009, by using an online macroseismic questionnaire. Intensity residuals calculated using the mainshock and four aftershocks are analyzed in light of a very accurate and original geological reconstruction of the subsoil of Rome based on a large amount of wells. The aim of this work is to highlight ground motion amplification areas and to find a correlation with the geological settings at a subregional scale, putting in evidence the extreme complexity of the phenomenon and the difficulty of making a simplified model. Correlations between amplification areas and both near-surface and deep geology were found. Moreover, the detailed scale of investigation has permitted us to find a correlation between seismic amplification in recent alluvial settings and subsiding zones, and between heard seismic sound and Tiber alluvial sediments.  相似文献   

Reply to comment on “Tank-reservoir drainage as a simulation of the recession limb of karst spring hydrographs”: paper published in Hydrogeology Journal (2011) 19:1009–1019, by Francesco Fiorillo     

Francesco Fiorillo 《Hydrogeology Journal》2012,20(7):1429-1431

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Space/time tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Umbria-Romagna-Marche Miocene Basin (Northern Apennines, Italy): a foredeep model     

Francesco Guerrera  Mario Tramontana  Ugo Donatelli  Francisco Serrano 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2012,105(3):325-341

The space/time evolution of the Umbria-Romagna-Marche domains of the northern Apennine Miocene foredeep is proposed. In this period, the turbidite siliciclastic sedimentation is represented mainly by the Miocene Marnoso-Arenacea Formation, which generally ends with mainly marly deposits. From the internal Apennine sectors (Umbria-Romagna domain) to the external Adriatic Margin (Marche domain) the siliciclastic succession overlies hemipelagic marly deposits (Schlier Formation). The whole depositional area can be considered as a single wide basin with depocenter or main sedimentation areas progressively migrating eastwards. This basin is characterized by some morphological highs which did not constitute real dams for the sedimentary flows (turbidity currents). Multiple feeding (arkose, litharenites, calcarenites) from different sources is related to palaeogeographical and palaeotectonic reorganization of the most internal, previously deformed, Apennine areas. The activation of the foredeep stage is marked by the beginning of the siliciclastic sedimentation (Late Burdigalian in the most internal sector). This sedimentation ends in the most external sector in the Early Messinian, pointing to a depositional cycle of about 9?C10?Ma. The diachronism of the base of the siliciclastic deposition proves to be almost 5?Ma. The syn-depositional compressional deformation, which shows a marked diachronism, affected the internal area of the foredeep in the Early-Middle Serravallian, and progressively migrated up to Late Miocene, involving more and more external sectors. The deformed siliciclastic sedimentary wedge constitutes an orogenic pile incorporated in the Apennine Chain, represented by different tectonic elements superimposed by means of NE-vergent thrusts. The main stratigraphic and tectonic events of the Toscana-Romagna-Marche Apennines are presented in a general framework, resulting also in a terminological revision.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and quality of the groundwater from the karstic and coastal aquifer of Geropotamos River Basin at north-central Crete, Greece   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Francesco Sdao  Serena Parisi  Despina Kalisperi  Stefania Pascale  Pantelis Soupios  Nikos Lydakis-Simantiris  Maria Kouli 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,67(4):1145-1153

In Geropotamos River Basin, located on the north-central part of Crete, Greece, two main factors were believed to be affecting the geochemistry of the groundwater with high salt contents: seawater intrusion and/or Miocene evaporates. To identify the origin of the high salinity in groundwater, a hydrogeochemical and isotopic study was performed. Water samples from 22 wells and 2 springs were analyzed for physico-chemical parameters, major ions analysis, as well as stable isotopes (??¹⁸O, ??D). From the present survey, in which detailed hydrogeochemical investigation was conducted, the uncertainty of the contamination sources was decreased in the northern part of Geropotamos Basin. The results complement the scenario in which seawater and the widespread human activities are the principal sources of groundwater contamination. Moreover, the results of the stable isotopes analyses (??¹⁸O and ??D) support the same hypothesis and make seawater intrusion the most probable cause for the highest salinity waters. It is indicated that saline intrusion is likely to occur along fractures in a fault zone through otherwise low-permeability phyllite?Cquartzite bedrock, which demonstrates the critical role of fracture pathways in salination problems of coastal aquifers.  相似文献