System dynamics modeling of transboundary systems: the bear river basin model   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Sehlke G  Jacobson J 《Ground water》2005,43(5):722-730

System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, system dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, a multipurpose national laboratory managed by the Department of Energy, has developed a system dynamics model in order to evaluate its utility for modeling large complex hydrological systems. We modeled the Bear River basin, a transboundary basin that includes portions of Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. We found that system dynamics modeling is very useful for integrating surface water and ground water data and for simulating the interactions between these sources within a given basin. In addition, we also found that system dynamics modeling is useful for integrating complex hydrologic data with other information (e.g., policy, regulatory, and management criteria) to produce a decision support system. Such decision support systems can allow managers and stakeholders to better visualize the key hydrologic elements and management constraints in the basin, which enables them to better understand the system via the simulation of multiple "what-if" scenarios. Although system dynamics models can be developed to conduct traditional hydraulic/hydrologic surface water or ground water modeling, we believe that their strength lies in their ability to quickly evaluate trends and cause-effect relationships in large-scale hydrological systems, for integrating disparate data, for incorporating output from traditional hydraulic/hydrologic models, and for integration of interdisciplinary data, information, and criteria to support better management decisions.  相似文献   

Implosions and emplosions in supermassive objects     

Giora Shaviv  Gerald E. Tauber 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1971,14(2):396-398

It is shown that for small velocities the time dependent evolution of massive stars may be described by a series of static models. Those are linked to each other by one continuous time dependent parameter-the relativity effect. The fate of the dynamic system is analyzed by the behaviour of the static models. The method is illustrated for general relativistic polytropes.  相似文献   

A Double-Canyon Radiation Scheme for Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sebastian Schubert  Susanne Grossman-Clarke  Alberto Martilli 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2012,145(3):439-468

We develop a double-canyon radiation scheme (DCEP) for urban canopy models embedded in mesoscale numerical models based on the Building Effect Parametrization (BEP). The new scheme calculates the incoming and outgoing longwave and shortwave radiation for roof, wall and ground surfaces for an urban street canyon characterized by its street and building width, canyon length, and the building height distribution. The scheme introduces the radiative interaction of two neighbouring urban canyons allowing the full inclusion of roofs into the radiation exchange both inside the canyon and with the sky. In contrast to BEP, we also treat direct and diffuse shortwave radiation from the sky independently, thus allowing calculation of the effective parameters representing the urban diffuse and direct shortwave radiation budget inside the mesoscale model. Furthermore, we close the energy balance of incoming longwave and diffuse shortwave radiation from the sky, so that the new scheme is physically more consistent than the BEP scheme. Sensitivity tests show that these modifications are important for urban regions with a large variety of building heights. The evaluation against data from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment indicates a good performance of the DCEP when coupled with the regional weather and climate model COSMO-CLM.  相似文献   

Mitigation of atmospheric perturbations and solid Earth movements in a TerraSAR-X time-series     

Adrian Schubert  Michael Jehle  David Small  Erich Meier 《Journal of Geodesy》2012,86(4):257-270

The TerraSAR-X (TSX) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) marks the recent emergence of a new generation of spaceborne radar sensors that can for the first time lay claim to localization accuracies in the sub-meter range. The TSX platform’s extremely high orbital stability and the sensor’s hardware timing accuracy combine to enable direct measurements of atmospheric refraction and solid Earth movements. By modeling these effects for individual TSX acquisitions, absolute pixel geolocation accuracy on the order of several centimeters can be achieved without need for even a single tiepoint. A 16-month time series of images was obtained over a fixed test site, making it possible to validate both an atmospheric refraction and a solid Earth tide model, while at the same time establishing the instrument’s long-term stability. These related goals were achieved by placing trihedral corner reflectors (CRs) at the test site and estimating their phase centers with centimeter-level accuracy using differential GPS (DGPS). Oriented in pairs toward a given satellite track, the CRs could be seen as bright “points” in the images, providing a geometric reference set. SAR images from the high-resolution spotlight (HS) mode were obtained in alternating ascending and descending orbit configurations. The highest-resolution products were selected for their small sample dimensions, as positions can be more precisely determined. Based on the delivered product annotations, the CR image positions were predicted, and these predictions were compared with their measured image positions both before and after compensation for atmospheric refraction and systematic solid Earth deviations. It was possible to show that when the atmospheric distortion and Earth tides are taken into account, the TSX HS products have geolocation accuracies far exceeding the specified requirements. Furthermore, this accuracy was maintained for the duration of the 16-month test period. It could be demonstrated that with a correctly calibrated sensor, and after accounting for atmospheric and tidal effects, tiepoint-free geolocation is possible with TSX with an absolute product accuracy of about 5 cm.  相似文献   

Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)     

Bin Wang  June-Yi Lee  In-Sik Kang  J. Shukla  C.-K. Park  A. Kumar  J. Schemm  S. Cocke  J.-S. Kug  J.-J. Luo  T. Zhou  B. Wang  X. Fu  W.-T. Yun  O. Alves  E. K. Jin  J. Kinter  B. Kirtman  T. Krishnamurti  N. C. Lau  W. Lau  P. Liu  P. Pegion  T. Rosati  S. Schubert  W. Stern  M. Suarez  T. Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(1):93-117

We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981–2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial–temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80–90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework.  相似文献   

Footprints in Homogeneously and Heterogeneously Driven Boundary Layers Derived from a Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Model Embedded into Large-Eddy Simulation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Gerald Steinfeld  Siegfried Raasch  Tiina Markkanen 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,129(2):225-248

A Lagrangian stochastic (LS) model, which is embedded into a parallelised large-eddy simulation (LES) model, is used for dispersion and footprint evaluations. For the first time an online coupling between LES and LS models is applied. The new model reproduces concentration patterns, which were obtained in prior studies, provided that subgrid-scale turbulence is included in the LS model. Comparisons with prior studies show that the model evaluates footprints successfully. Streamwise dispersion leads to footprint maxima that are situated less far upstream than previously reported. Negative flux footprints are detected in the convective boundary layer (CBL). The wide range of applicability of the model is shown by applying it under neutral and stable stratification. It is pointed out that the turning of the wind direction with height leads to a considerable dependency of source areas on height. First results of an application to a heterogeneously heated CBL are presented, which emphasize that footprints are severely affected by the inhomogeneity.  相似文献   

Decompression and H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O exsolution driven crystallization and fractionation: development of a new model for low-pressure fractional crystallization in calc-alkaline magmatic systems     

James Gerald Brophy 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,157(6):797-811

Magma ascent, decompression-induced H₂O exsolution and crystallization is now recognized as an important process in hydrous subduction zone magmas. During the course of such a process calculations suggest that the ascent rate of a degassing and crystallizing mafic magma will be greater than crystal settling velocities. Thus, any crystals formed as a consequence of volatile exsolution will remain suspended in the magma. If the magma erupts before the percentage of suspended crystals reaches the critical crystallinity value for mafic magma (~55 vol.%) it will produce the commonly observed crystal rich island arc basalt lava. If the magma reaches its critical crystallinity before it erupts then it will stall within the crust. Extension of compaction experiments on a 55 vol.% sand-Karo syrup suspension at different temperatures (and liquid viscosities) to the likely viscosities of interstitial andesitic to dacitic liquid within such a stalled magma suggest that small amounts (up to ~10%) can be expelled on a time scale of 1–10 years. The expelled liquid can create a new intermediate to silicic body of magma that is related to the original mafic magma via fractional crystallization. The short time scale for liquid expulsion indicate that decompression-induced H₂O exsolution and crystallization can be an important mechanism for fractional crystallization. Based on this assumption a general model of decompression-induced crystallization and fractionation is proposed that explains many of the compositional, mineralogical and textural features of Aleutian (and other andesites).  相似文献   

La–SiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and Yb–SiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> systematics in mid-ocean ridge magmas: implications for the origin of oceanic plagiogranite     

James Gerald Brophy 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,158(1):99-111

Analytical expressions for the variation in D _La and D _Yb with increasing liquid SiO₂ for olivine, plagioclase, augite, hornblende, orthopyroxene, magnetite and ilmenite (Brophy in Contrib Mineral Petrol 2008, online first) have been combined with numerical models of hydrous partial melting, of mid-ocean ridge (MOR) cumulate gabbro melting, and fractional crystallization of slightly hydrous mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) magma to assess a melting versus fractionation origin for oceanic plagiogranite. For felsic magmas (>63 wt.% SiO₂) the modeling predicts the following. MOR cumulate gabbro melting should yield constant or decreasing La and constant Yb abundances with increasing liquid SiO₂. The overall abundances should be similar to those in associated mafic magmas. MORB fractional crystallization should yield steadily increasing La and Yb abundances with increasing SiO₂ with overall abundances significantly higher than those in associated mafic magmas. Application to natural occurrences of oceanic plagiogranite indicate that both MOR cumulate gabbro melting and MORB fractionation are responsible. Application of the model results to Icelandic rhyolites strongly support a fractional crystallization rather than a crustal melting origin.  相似文献   

Biogeochemistry of particulate organic matter from lakes of different trophic levels in Switzerland     

Achim Bechtel  Carsten J. Schubert 《Organic Geochemistry》2009,40(4):441-454

Biomarker compositions of particulate organic matter (POM) from the oligotrophic Lake Brienz and the eutrophic Lake Lugano (both Switzerland) are compared, in order to obtain information about organic matter (OM) production and transformation processes in relation to water column stratification. Eutrophic conditions in Lake Lugano are reflected by enhanced alkalinity, elevated total organic carbon (TOC) and chlorin contents compared with Lake Brienz. Lower δ¹³C values of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in Lake Lugano reflect enhanced OM respiration in the water column.Differences in OM dynamics between both lakes, as well as seasonal variations, are evidenced by TOC-normalised concentration profiles of total fatty acids (FAs) and total neutrals. In Lake Brienz, the results reflect the relative contributions of primary productivity and refractory, allochthonous OM to POM, governed by particle load and interflows due to density stratification. The depth trends at Lake Lugano are a result of high primary productivity, water column stratification and associated particle load in the upper layers, as well as microbially induced degradation close to the chemocline and greater preservation under anoxic conditions. Minor differences exist with regard to the OM composition. In both lakes, FA distributions and the composition of n-alkanols indicate a predominant autochthonous OM source (algae, zooplankton, bacteria). Inputs of OM from diatoms are reflected in highly-branched isoprenoid (HBI) alkenes, 16:1 n-FAs and 24-methylcholesta-5,22-dien-3β-ol (either epibrassicasterol or brassicasterol). Differences in relative proportions of n-C₁₆ vs. n-C₁₈ FAs and alkanols, respectively, as well as in the percentages of C₂₇, C₂₈ and C₂₉ sterols relative to the sum of sterols are related to differences in the abundances of chrysophytes, diatoms and green algae within the euphotic zone of both lakes as well as in bacterial activity and soil in-wash. High relative proportions of cholesterol in the autumn samples, most pronounced at Lake Lugano, were attributed to an increased input from zooplankton grazing in the water column.Differences in OM degradation processes are reflected in slightly higher chlorin index values and higher relative proportions of saturated vs. unsaturated n-FAs in Lake Lugano. Higher contents of branched chain FAs, 16:1ω7 n-FA, and enhanced 18:1ω7/18:1ω9 n-FA ratios suggest enhanced bacterial biomass in the water column of Lake Lugano close to the chemocline. Increasing proportions of saturated n-FAs and n-alkanols with increasing water depth, most distinct in the autumn for both lakes, argue for intensified bacterial activity and degradation of OM during autumn. High relative contents of sterols and low n-alkanol concentrations in POM close to the chemocline at Lake Lugano during spring are interpreted to reflect higher primary productivity in the photic zone, OM export to the deeper parts and enhanced degradation rates of more labile constituents (i.e. C₁₃–C₂₀ n-alkanols), as compared to Lake Brienz.  相似文献   

Latest Pleistocene and Holocene glacier fluctuations in western Canada     

Brian Menounos  Gerald Osborn  John J. Clague  Brian H. Luckman 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(21-22):2049-2074

We summarize evidence of the latest Pleistocene and Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Canadian Cordillera. Our review focuses primarily on studies completed after 1988, when the first comprehensive review of such evidence was published. The Cordilleran ice sheet reached its maximum extent about 16 ka and then rapidly decayed. Some lobes of the ice sheet, valley glaciers, and cirque glaciers advanced one or more times between 15 and 11 ka. By 11 ka, or soon thereafter, glacier cover in the Cordillera was no more extensive than at the end of the 20th century. Glaciers were least extensive between 11 and 7 ka. A general expansion of glaciers began as early as 8.4 ka when glaciers overrode forests in the southern Coast Mountains; it culminated with the climactic advances of the Little Ice Age. Holocene glacier expansion was not continuous, but rather was punctuated by advances and retreats on a variety of timescales. Radiocarbon ages of wood collected from glacier forefields reveal six major periods of glacier advance: 8.59–8.18, 7.36–6.45, 4.40–3.97, 3.54–2.77, 1.71–1.30 ka, and the past millennium. Tree-ring and lichenometric dating shows that glaciers began their Little Ice Age advances as early as the 11th century and reached their maximum Holocene positions during the early 18th or mid-19th century. Our data confirm a previously suggested pattern of episodic but successively greater Holocene glacier expansion from the early Holocene to the climactic advances of the Little Ice Age, presumably driven by decreasing summer insolation throughout the Holocene. Proxy climate records indicate that glaciers advanced during the Little Ice Age in response to cold conditions that coincided with times of sunspot minima. Priority research required to further advance our understanding of late Pleistocene and Holocene glaciation in western Canada includes constraining the age of late Pleistocene moraines in northern British Columbia and Yukon Territory, expanding the use of cosmogenic surface exposure dating techniques, using multi-proxy paleoclimate approaches, and directing more of the research effort to the northern Canadian Cordillera.  相似文献