Recent trends in regional air temperature and precipitation and links to global climate change in the Maharlo watershed,Southwestern Iran     

Javad Abolverdi  Ghasem Ferdosifar  Davar Khalili  Ali Akbar Kamgar-Haghighi  Mohammad Abdolahipour Haghighi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2014,126(3-4):177-192

Trends in air temperature and precipitation data are investigated for linkages to global warming and climate change. After checking for serial correlation with trend-free pre-whitening procedure, the Mann–Kendall test is used to detect monotonic trends and the Mann–Whitney test is used for trend step change. The case study is Maharlo watershed, Southwestern Iran, representing a semi-arid environment. Data are for the 1951–2011 period, from four temperature sites and seven precipitation sites. A homogeneity test investigates regional similarity of the time series data. The results include mean annual, mean annual maximum and minimum and seasonal analysis of air temperature and precipitation data. Mean annual temperature results indicate an increasing trend, while a non-significant trend in precipitation is observed in all the stations. Furthermore, significant phase change was detected in mean annual air temperature trend of Shiraz station in 1977, indicating decreasing trend during 1951–1976 and increasing trend during 1977–2011. The annual precipitation analysis for Shiraz shows a non-significant decrease during 1951–1976 and 1977–2011. The result of homogeneity test reveals that the studied stations form one homogeneous region. While air temperature trends appear as regional linkage to global warming/global climate change, more definite outcome requires analysis of longer time series data on precipitation and air temperature.  相似文献   

Calculation of fracture parameters and their effect on porosity and permeability using image logs and petrophysical data in carbonate Asmari reservoir,SW Iran     

Ghasem Aghli  Bahman Soleimani  Sayed Salman Tabatabai  Iman Zahmatkesh 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(12):265

Evaluation of fractures and their parameters, such as aperture and density, is necessary in the optimization of oil production and field development. The purpose of this study is the calculation of fracture parameters in the Asmari reservoir using two electrical image logs (FMI, EMI), and the determination of fracture parameters’ effect on the porosity and permeability using thin sections and velocity deviation log (VDL). The results indicate that production in the Asmari reservoir is a combination of fractures and rock matrix. Fracture aperture (VAH) and fracture porosity (VPA) are only measurable with core and image logs directly. However, regarding core limitations, the image log has been recognized as the best method for fracture parameter determination due to their high resolution (2.5 mm). In this study, VDL log and thin sections have been used as auxiliary methods which may be available in all wells. The VDL log provides a tool to obtain downhole information about the predominant pore type in carbonates. Results indicate that between fracture parameters, VAH is considered as the most important parameter for determining permeability. For well No. 3, VAH ranges from minimum 51 × 10^?5 mm to maximum 0. 047 mm and VPA changes from min 10^?5% to maximum 0.02056%. For well No. 6, VAH varies from 5 × 10^?4 to 0.0695 mm and VPA varies from 10^?5 to 0.015%. Therefore, due to high fracture density and fracture aperture, it seems that most of effective porosity originates from fractures especially in well No. 3. However, VDL for well No. 6 indicates that intercrystalline and vuggy porosity are the dominant porosity. This result may be an indication for fracture set diversity in the two studied wells. While in well No. 3, they related to the folding and active faults, in well No. 6 they are only of folding type. Furthermore, results indicate the high capability for both of EMI and FMI image logs for calculation of fracture and vug parameters in the carbonate reservoirs.  相似文献   

Analysis of the stress field and strain rate in Zagros-Makran transition zone     

Ghasem Ghorbani Rostam  Mehrdad Pakzad  Noorbakhsh Mirzaei  Seyed Reza Sakhaei 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(1):287-301

Transition boundary between Zagros continental collision and Makran oceanic-continental subduction can be specified by two wide limits: (a) Oman Line is the seismicity boundary with a sizeable reduction in seismicity rate from Zagros in the west to Makran in the east; and (b) the Zendan-Minab-Palami (ZMP) fault system is believed to be a prominent tectonic boundary. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the stress field in the Zagros-Makran transition zone by the iterative joint inversion method developed by Vavrycuk (Geophysical Journal International 199:69-77, 2014). The results suggest a rather uniform pattern of the stress field around these two boundaries. We compare the results with the strain rates obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) network stations. In most cases, the velocity vectors show a relatively good agreement with the stress field except for the Bandar Abbas (BABS) station which displays a relatively large deviation between the stress field and the strain vector. This deviation probably reflects a specific location of the BABS station being in the transition zone between Zagros continental collision and Makran subduction zones.  相似文献   

Investigating the ability of periodically correlated (PC) time series models to forecast the climate index     

Zarei  Abdol Rassoul  Mahmoudi  Mohammad Reza 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(1):121-137

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Considering the importance of climate change and its effects, especially in recent decades, the forecast of future climate conditions can be...  相似文献