Probabilistic analysis of risk and mitigation of deepwater well blowouts and oil spills     

Alessandro?Caia  Alberto?Giulio?Di?Lullo  Giambattista?De?Ghetto  Alberto?GuadagniniEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(9):2647-2666

The development of robust risk assessment procedures for offshore oil and gas operations is a major element for the assessment of the potential feedback between planned activities and the environment. We illustrate a methodological and computational framework conducive to (1) a quantitative risk analysis of deepwater well barrier failures and subsequent hydrocarbon release to the environment and (2) the analysis of the value of the deployment of conventional and/or innovative mitigation measures. Our methodological framework is grounded on historical records and combines the use of Dynamic Event Trees and Decision Trees from which we estimate probability of occurrence and impact of post-blowout events. Each sequence of response actions, which are undertaken immediately after the event or in the subsequent days, is considered within the context of appropriately structured event paths. This approach is conducive to an estimate of the expected value of key decisions and underlying technologies, with an emphasis on their potential to reduce the oil spill volume, which can critically impact the environment. Our study yields an original comparative analysis of diverse intervention strategies, and forms a basis to guiding future efforts towards the development and deployment of technologies and operating procedures yielding maximum benefit in terms of safety of operations and environmental protection.  相似文献   

Biomorphological scaling laws from convectively accelerated streams     

Giulio Calvani  Paolo Perona  Coralie Schick  Luca Solari 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(3):723-735

Worldwide convectively accelerated streams flowing in downstream-narrowing river sections show that riverbed vegetation growing on alluvial sediment bars gradually disappears, forming a front beyond which vegetation is absent. We revise a recently proposed analytical model able to predict the expected longitudinal position of the vegetation front. The model was developed considering the steady state approximation of 1-D ecomorphodynamics equations. While the model was tested against flume experiments, its extension and application to the field is not trivial as it requires the definition of proper scaling laws governing the observed phenomenon. In this work, we present a procedure to calculate vegetation parameters and flow magnitude governing the equilibrium at the reach scale between hydromorphological and biological components in rivers with converging boundaries. We collected from worldwide rivers data of section topography, hydrogeomorphological and riparian vegetation characteristics to perform a statistical analysis aimed to validate the proposed procedure. Results are presented in the form of scaling laws correlating biological parameters of growth and decay from different vegetation species to flood return period and duration, respectively. Such relationships demonstrate the existence of underlying selective processes determining the riparian vegetation both in terms of species and cover. We interpret the selection of vegetation species from ecomorphodynamic processes occurring in convectively accelerated streams as the orchestrated dynamic action of flow, sediment and vegetation characteristics. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Origin of mud in turbidites and hybrid event beds: Insight from ponded mudstone caps of the Castagnola turbidite system (north-west Italy)     

Marco Patacci  Mattia Marini  Fabrizio Felletti  Andrea Di Giulio  Massimo Setti  William McCaffrey 《Sedimentology》2020,67(5):2625-2644

The partitioning of different grain-size classes in gravity flow deposits is one of the key characteristics used to infer depositional processes. Turbidites have relatively clean sandstones with most of their clay deposited as part of a mudstone cap or as a distal mudstone layer, whereas sand-bearing debrites commonly comprise mixtures of sand grains and interstitial clay; hybrid event beds develop alternations of clean and dirty (clay-rich) sandstones in varying proportions. Analysis of co-genetic mudstone caps in terms of thickness and composition is a novel approach that can provide new insight into gravity flow depositional processes. Bed thickness data from the ponded Castagnola system show that turbidites contain more clay overall than do hybrid event beds. The Castagnola system is characterized by deposits of two very different petrographic types. Thanks to this duality, analyses of sandstone and mudstone composition allow inference of which proportion of the clay in each of the deposit types was acquired en route. In combination with standard sedimentological observations the new data allow insight into the likely characteristics of their parent flows. Clean turbidites were deposited by lower concentration, long duration, erosive, muddy turbidity currents which were more efficient at fractionating clay particles away from their basal layer. Hybrid event beds were deposited by shorter duration, higher-concentration, less-erosive sandier flows which were less efficient at clay fractionation. The results are consistent with data from other turbidite systems (for example, Marnoso-arenacea). The approach represents a new method to infer the controls on the degree of clay partitioning in gravity flow deposits.  相似文献   

A comparative analysis of three habitat suitability models for commercial yield estimation of Tapes philippinarum in a North Adriatic coastal lagoon (Sacca di Goro, Italy)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Simone Vincenzi  Graziano Caramori  Remigio Rossi  Giulio A. De Leo   《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,55(10-12):579

Habitat Suitability (HS) models have been extensively used by conservation planners to estimate the spatial distribution of threatened species and of species of commercial interest. In this work we compare three HS models for the estimation of commercial yield potential and the identification of suitable sites for Tapes philippinarum rearing in the Sacca di Goro lagoon (Italy) on the basis of six environmental factors. The habitat suitability index (HSI) is based on expert opinion while the habitat suitability conditional (HSC) is calibrated on observational data. The habitat suitability mixed (HSM) model is a two-part model combining expert knowledge and regression analysis: the first component of the model uses logistic regression to identify the areas in which clams are likely to be present; the second part applies the same parameter-specific suitability functions of the HSI model only in the areas previously identified as productive by the logistic component.The HS models were validated on an independent data set and estimates of potential yield of the Goro lagoon were compared. The effectiveness of the three approaches is then discussed in terms of predicted yield and identification of suitable sites for farming.  相似文献   

Timescales and dynamics of the formation of a thermocline     

Giulio Boccaletti   《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2005,39(1-2):21

In a state of equilibrium, the constraint of a balanced heat budget for the ocean strongly influences the depth of the tropical thermocline because that depth controls the rate at which the ocean absorbs heat from the atmosphere. Thus, an increase in the oceanic heat loss in high latitudes results in a shoaling of the equatorial thermocline so that the heat gain also increases. How does the ocean adjust to such a new equilibrium state after an abrupt change in the heat flux in high latitudes? The adjustment of the wind-driven circulation of the upper ocean is shown to involve two timescales. The first is the familiar adiabatic wave-adjustment time associated with the horizontal redistribution of warm water above the thermocline in shallow water models. (This is essentially the time it takes Rossby and Kelvin waves to propagate from the disturbed extra-equatorial region to the equator.) The second adjustment-time is associated with the diabatic processes that come into play once the waves from higher latitudes modify the thermal structure in low latitudes and hence the flux of heat into the ocean; it is the timescale on which the ocean recovers a balanced heat budget. The identification of this timescale is the main result of this paper.Through a series of simulations of an idealized ocean basin, we identify the diabatic timescale and argue that it is determined by the strength of the upwelling and the intensity of the air–sea heatfluxes. By simulating the formation of a thermocline from isothermal conditions, we are able to relate this timescale to other relevant timescales such as that associated with diffusive processes and the adiabatic timescale invoked by Gu and Philander [Gu, D., Philander, S.G.H., 1997. Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extra-topics. Science 275, 805–807].  相似文献   

Inclined K–Ar illite age spectra in brittle fault gouges: effects of fault reactivation and wall‐rock contamination          下载免费PDF全文

Espen Torgersen  Giulio Viola  Horst Zwingmann  Iain H. C. Henderson 《地学学报》2015,27(2):106-113

K–Ar clay fraction ages of brittle faults often vary with grain size, decreasing in the finer size fractions, producing an inclined age–grain‐size spectrum. K–Ar ages and mineralogical characterization of gouges from two normal faults in the Kongsberg silver mines, southern Norway, suggest that inclined spectra derived from brittle fault rocks reflect the mixing of inherited components with authigenic mineral phases. The ages of the coarsest and finest fractions constrain faulting at c. 260–270 Ma and reactivation around 200–210 Ma, respectively. This study demonstrates how wall‐rock contamination influences the K–Ar age of the coarsest size fractions and that authigenic illite and K‐feldspar can crystallize synkinematically under equivalent conditions and thus yield the same K–Ar ages.  相似文献   

Direct 40Ar/39Ar dating of Late Ordovician and Silurian brittle faulting in the southwestern Norwegian Caledonides          下载免费PDF全文

Thomas Scheiber  Giulio Viola  Camilla Maya Wilkinson  Morgan Ganerød  Øyvind Skår  Deta Gasser 《地学学报》2016,28(5):374-382

Structural data as well as U–Pb zircon and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar biotite and muscovite ages were collected from the Rolvsnes granodiorite in western Norway. The granodiorite intruded at c. 466 Ma, cooled quickly and escaped later viscous deformation. Brittle top‐to‐the‐NNW thrust faults (Set I) and WNW–ESE striking dextral strike‐slip faults (Set II) formed in a NNW–SSE transpressional regime. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of synkinematic mica from both sets reveals a c. 450 Ma (Late Ordovician) age of faulting, which constrains early‐Caledonian brittle deformation. Set I and II faults are overprinted by a set of lower‐grade, variably oriented chlorite‐ and epidote‐coated faults (Set III) constraining WNW–ESE shortening. A lamprophyric dyke oriented compatibly with this stress field intruded at c. 435 Ma (Silurian), indicating that Set III formed at the onset of the Scandian Baltica–Laurentia collision. The preservation of Caledonian brittle structures indicates that the Rolvsnes granodiorite occupied a high tectonic level throughout the Caledonian orogeny.  相似文献   

River water and nutrient discharges in the Northern Adriatic Sea: Current importance and long term changes     

Stefano Cozzi  Michele Giani 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(18):1881-1893

Runoff and nutrient transport by rivers were analysed in the Northern Adriatic continental shelf, in order to evaluate their interannual and multidecal variability, as well as their current contribution to determine freshwater and nutrient budgets in this marine region. During the years 2004-2007, the runoff in the basin (34.1-64.6 km³ yr⁻¹) was highly imbalanced, being 84% of freshwater discharged along the western coast, because of the contributions of Po, Adige and Brenta rivers. In the northern and eastern sections of the coast, freshwater discharge by rivers was less important (10 and 6%, respectively), but not negligible in determining the oceanographic properties at sub-regional scales. The oscillations of the transport of biogenic elements (124-262×10³ t N yr⁻¹ for TN, 72-136×10³ t N yr⁻¹ for DIN, 4.5-11.1×10³t P yr⁻¹ for TP, 2.2-3.5×10³ t P yr⁻¹ for PO₄ and 104-196×10³ t Si yr⁻¹ for SiO₂) were strictly dependant to the differences in the annual runoff. A strong excess of N load in comparison to P load characterised all rivers, both in inorganic nutrient (DIN/PO4=37-418) and total (TN/TP=48-208) pools, particularly in the northern and eastern areas of the basin.The annual runoff showed significant oscillations for Po on multidecadal time scale, whereas a general decrease (−33%) was observed for the other N Adriatic rivers as the recent discharges were compared to those before the 1980s. During the dry years 2005-2007, a strong reduction of river water flows and nutrient loads was experienced by the N Adriatic ecosystem with respect to years characterised by medium-high regimes. An increased frequency of similar drought periods, due to ongoing climate changes or to a larger human usage of continental waters, would be easily able to significantly change the biogeochemistry of this basin.  相似文献   

Evaluation of site effects in the Aterno river valley (Central Italy) from aftershocks of the 2009 L��Aquila earthquake     

F. Bergamaschi  G. Cultrera  L. Luzi  R. M. Azzara  G. Ameri  P. Augliera  P. Bordoni  F. Cara  R. Cogliano  E. D��Alema  D. Di Giacomo  G. Di Giulio  A. Fodarella  G. Franceschina  F. Galadini  M. R. Gallipoli  S. Gori  P. Harabaglia  C. Ladina  S. Lovati  S. Marzorati  M. Massa  G. Milana  M. Mucciarelli  F. Pacor  S. Parolai  M. Picozzi  M. Pilz  S. Pucillo  R. Puglia  G. Riccio  M. Sobiesiak 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(3):697-715

A temporary network of 33 seismic stations was deployed in the area struck by the 6th April 2009, Mw 6.1 (Scognamiglio et?al. in Seism Res Lett 6/81, 2010), L??Aquila earthquake (central Italy), with the aim to investigate the site amplification within the Aterno river Valley. The seismograms of 18 earthquakes recorded by 14 of the 33 stations were used to evaluate the average horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) for each site and the standard horizontal spectral ratio (SSR) between a site and a reference station. The obtained results have been compared to the geological and geophysical information in order to explain the resonance frequencies and the amplification levels with respect to surface geology of the valley. The results indicate that there is no uniform pattern of amplification, because of the complex geologic setting, as the thickness and degree of cementation of the deposits is highly variable.  相似文献   

Diagenetic and thermal history of the Jurassic-Tertiary succession of the Zagros Mountains in the Dezful Embayment (SW Iran): constraints from fluid inclusions     

A. Ceriani  R. Calabrò  A. Di Giulio  R. Buonaguro 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2011,100(6):1265-1281

To constraint the diagenetic and thermal history in the Mesozoic-Tertiary succession of the Zagros Fold-Belt, a study was performed on fluid inclusions trapped in intergranular, vug, and fracture-filling cements in Jurassic to Miocene outcrop samples collected along the Anneh and Fahliyan Valleys of Khuzestan Province, southwest Iran. Petrographic observations showed at least two systems of fractures that postdate intergranular cementation. Two different types of oil-filled fluid inclusions occur in the intergranular cements and in the first fracture network, but they are absent in the second fracture network. Microthermometry of fluid inclusions was used to determine the temperature and salinity of fluids responsible for mineral precipitation. Within intergranular cements and calcite fillings the oldest fractures, precipitation occurred from high saline fluids in a temperature range of 60–120°C, depending on the stratigraphic depth. The strong correlation between fluid inclusions temperature and stratigraphic depth suggests that the intergranular cementation and the first fracture-filling event occurred prior to structural deformation. Furthermore, this correlation indicates a relatively constant paleogeothermal gradient at the time of cement precipitation of about 28°C/Km. On the contrary, fluid inclusions trapped in cements within the second fracture network lack oil and contain freshwater trapped at low temperatures that do not correlate to the stratigraphic position. This suggests second fracturing event occurred after oil migration and during or after deformation of the Zagros Fold-Belt, when the samples were in a near-surface position.  相似文献