The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability     

Gottfried Grünthal  Dietrich Stromeyer  Christian Bosse  Fabrice Cotton  Dino Bindi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(10):4339-4395

The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of \(v_{S30}\) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02–3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.  相似文献   

Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling     

Amir Hossein Hakimhashemi  Jeoung Seok Yoon  Oliver Heidbach  Arno Zang  Gottfried Grünthal 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):671-680

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.  相似文献   

Fractionation of palladium and platinum in a Mesozoic diabase sheet, Gettysburg basin, Pennsyvania: implications for mineral exploration     

David Gottfried  A.J. Froelich  Norma Rait  P.J. Aruscavage 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》1990,37(1)

The York Haven diabase sheet displays clear-cut evidence of fractionation of Pd and Pt during differentiation of a high-Ti (about 1.1%) quartz-normative tholeiitic magma (York Haven type). At York Haven the sheet is about 750 m thick. It is characterized by abundant cumulus MgO-rich orthopyroxene (bronzite), and is markedly depleted in incompatible elements relative to the chilled margins. In contrast, at Reesers Summit, 16 km to the northwest, the sheet is about 500 m thick and consists of evolved rocks that have contents of incompatible elements two to three times greater than in the enclosing chilled margins. These evolved rocks represent complementary fractions to the cumulate rocks at York Haven. Mineralogic, petrologic and geochemical variations suggest considerable lateral migration and fractionation of the initial magma.Chilled margins of both sections have essentially the same Pd and Pt contents (10 ppb each) and similar Pd to Pt ratios (1.2). During differentiation, the cumulate rocks at York Haven were enriched in Pt and depleted in Pd, whereas at Reesers Summit, the low-MgO diabase and ferrogabbro zone were enriched in Pd relative to Pt. Anomalously high contents of Pd (to 165 ppb), Au (to 54 ppb), and Te (to 26 ppb) were found in an iron- (to 18%) and chlorine- (to 0.44%) rich ferrogabbro at Reesers Summit, suggesting possible late or post-magmatic enrichment of precious metals. Field relations, geochemical and petrographic data provide guides for further exploration for Pd and Pt in differentiated high-Ti quartz-normative diabase sheets. Based on present information, the most favorable sites for economic deposits are late-stage differentiates enriched in Fe and Cl.  相似文献   

Limnologie und Medizin     

Gottfried Huber-Pestalozzi 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1949,11(1-2):1-14

Ohne Zusammenfassung  相似文献   

Aspects of the magmatic geochemistry of bismuth     

L.P. Greenland  D. Gottfried  E.Y. campbell 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1973,37(2):283-295

Bismuth has been determined in 74 rocks from a differentiated tholeiitic dolerite, two calc-alkaline batholith suites and in 66 mineral separates from one of the batholiths. Average bismuth contents, weighted for rock type, of the Great Lake (Tasmania) dolerite, the Southern California batholith and the Idaho batholith are, 32, 50 and 70 ppb respectively. All three bodies demonstrate an enrichment of bismuth in residual magmas with magmatic differentiation. Bismuth is greatly enriched (relative to the host rock) in the calcium-rich accessory minerals, apatite and sphene, but other mineral analyses show that a Bi-Ca association is of little significance to the magmatic geochemistry of bismuth. Most of the bismuth, in the Southern California batholith at least, occurs in a trace mineral phase (possibly sulfides) present as inclusions in the rock-forming minerals.  相似文献   

Boundary-layer observations over water and arctic sea-ice during on-ice air flow     

Burghard Brümmer  Birgit Busack  Heinrich Hoeber  Gottfried Kruspe 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1994,68(1-2):75-108

Observations made on 8 and 9 May 1988 by aircraft and two ships in and around the marginal ice zone of the Fram Strait during on-ice air flow under cloudy and cloud-free conditions are presented.The thermodynamic modification of the air mass moving from the open water to the ice over horizontal distances of 100–300 km is only a few tenth of a degree for temperature and a few tenth of a gram per kilogram for specific humidity. This is due to the small temperature differences between sea and ice surfaces. During the day, the ice surface is even warmer than the sea surface. The stably stratified 200–400 m deep boundary layer is often topped by a moisture inversion leading to downward fluxes of sensible as well as latent heat.The radiation and energy balance at the surface are measured as functions of ice cover, cloud cover and sun elevation angle. The net radiationR _Nis the dominating term of the energy budget. During the day, the difference ofR _Nbetween clear and overcast sky is only a few W/m² over ice, but 100–200 W/m² over water. During the night,R _Nover ice is more sensitive to cloud cover.The kinematic structure is characterized by strong shears of the longitudinal and the transversal wind component. The profile of the latter one shows an inflection point near the top of the boundary layer. Dynamically-driven roll circulations are numerically separated from the mean flow. The secondary flow patterns have wavelengths of about 1 km and contribute substantially to the total variances and covariances.  相似文献   

Theoretical aspects of coal washer performance     

Stanislaw Cierpisz  Byron S. Gottfried 《International Journal of Mineral Processing》1977,4(3):261-278

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the performance of ideal float-and-sink type coal washing devices. Included are studies of single washer performance, single washer with bypass, multiple washers in parallel and multiple washers in series. A maximum yield principle is developed for the cases of a single washer with bypass and multiple washers in parallel. The results of numerical calculations for actual washers are also presented and compared with the theoretical predictions for multiple washers in parallel and multiple washers in series.  相似文献   

USGS SOLICITS DATA FOR THREE NEWSAMPLES     

F. J. Flanagan  David Gottfried 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》1978,2(2):211-211

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A generalization of distribution data for characterizing the performance of float-sink coal cleaning devices     

Byron S. Gottfried 《International Journal of Mineral Processing》1978,5(1):1-20

The performance of float-sink coal cleaning devices customarily is characterized by a distribution curve, in which the percent of feed reporting to clean coal is plotted against specific gravity. For a given vessel and a given feed a family of distribution curves can be obtained, each having its own specific gravity of separation.This paper presents a method for combining these distribution curves at different specific gravities of separation, for a given coal cleaning vessel and a given feed, into a single, generalized distribution curve which is independent of the specific gravity of separation. This curve can be expressed in tabular form or it can be represented mathematically by an exponential type equation, known as a Weibull function.A different generalized distribution curve will be obtained for each of several different size fractions. A method is presented for utilizing these curves with feeds which encompass a broad spectrum of sizes.The well-known concepts of error area and probable error are extended to the generalized distribution curve. It is shown that the conventional probable error, and — under certain conditions — the conventional error area, are directly proportional to the specific gravity of separation for a given vessel and a given feed size.  相似文献   

Surface-active substances on rainwater and atmospheric particles     

Winfried Seidl  Gottfried Hänel 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1983,121(5-6):1077-1093

The surface tension lowering by surface-active substances has been measured on rainwater, melted snow, and dispersions of atmospheric particles in water, with a film balance and a tensiometer. The precipitation water was sampled during 1979, 1980, and 1981 in the city of Frankfurt/Main. From measurements with the film balance technique, normalized concentrations of insoluble and weakly soluble surface-active substances have been estimated. Soluble surface-active substances were determined from measurements with a tensiometer. It was found that the normalized concentration of theinsoluble and weakly soluble surface-active material on rainwater or melted snow shows a maximum during late spring of about 2.5 · 10⁻⁷ moles/l and a minimum during wintertime of about 5 · 10⁻⁸ moles/l. These concentrations are too low to influence significantly the condensation of water vapour on cloud droplets or the evaporation of water from them. Thesoluble surface-active material on rainwater or melted snow was found to have concentrations of the order of 2 · 10⁻⁶ moles/l. These concentrations are also too small to have a significant influence on cloud physical processes.  相似文献