Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections     

Peter Good  Jonathan M. Gregory  Jason A. Lowe  Timothy Andrews 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):1041-1053

A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO₂ step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO₂ step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO₂ constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 10²⁴ J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs.  相似文献   

Origins of differences in climate sensitivity, forcing and feedback in climate models     

Mark J. Webb  F. Hugo Lambert  Jonathan M. Gregory 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):677-707

We diagnose climate feedback parameters and CO₂ forcing including rapid adjustment in twelve atmosphere/mixed-layer-ocean (“slab”) climate models from the CMIP3/CFMIP-1 project (the AR4 ensemble) and fifteen parameter-perturbed versions of the HadSM3 slab model (the PPE). In both ensembles, differences in climate feedbacks can account for approximately twice as much of the range in climate sensitivity as differences in CO₂ forcing. In the AR4 ensemble, cloud effects can explain the full range of climate sensitivities, and cloud feedback components contribute four times as much as cloud components of CO₂ forcing to the range. Non-cloud feedbacks are required to fully account for the high sensitivities of some models however. The largest contribution to the high sensitivity of HadGEM1 is from a high latitude clear-sky shortwave feedback, and clear-sky longwave feedbacks contribute substantially to the highest sensitivity members of the PPE. Differences in low latitude ocean regions (30°N/S) contribute more to the range than those in mid-latitude oceans (30–55°N/S), low/mid latitude land (55°N/S) or high latitude ocean/land (55–90°N/S), but contributions from these other regions are required to account fully for the higher model sensitivities, for example from land areas in IPSL CM4. Net cloud feedback components over the low latitude oceans sorted into percentile ranges of lower tropospheric stability (LTS) show largest differences among models in stable regions, mainly due to their shortwave components, most of which are positive in spite of increasing LTS. Differences in the mid-stability range are smaller, but cover a larger area, contributing a comparable amount to the range in climate sensitivity. These are strongly anti-correlated with changes in subsidence. Cloud components of CO₂ forcing also show the largest differences in stable regions, and are strongly anticorrelated with changes in estimated inversion strength (EIS). This is qualitatively consistent with what would be expected from observed relationships between EIS and low-level cloud fraction. We identify a number of cases where individual models show unusually strong forcings and feedbacks compared to other members of the ensemble. We encourage modelling groups to investigate unusual model behaviours further with sensitivity experiments. Most of the models fail to correctly reproduce the observed relationships between stability and cloud radiative effect in the subtropics, indicating that there remains considerable room for model improvements in the future.  相似文献   

Basin analysis palaeo-landscape modelling: Testing the critical controls using experimental design constrained by a real 3D geological model,Gippsland Basin,Australia     

Xuemei Yang  Gregory Smith  Ritu Gupta 《Basin Research》2023,35(1):214-243

The main controlling variables for palaeo-landscape evolution are investigated to assess their relative importance using the Gippsland Basin geological history. Palaeo-landscape reconstruction is a complicated process controlled and affected by multiple variables, including tectonic, palaeo-environment, sea-level change, rainfall, sediment erosion, transportation, deposition, etc. The Basin and Landscape Dynamics software (Badlands) software was used with an efficient experimental design (ED) to guide the selected scenarios, process the results, and generate the multi-variate equations that define and identify the important controlling variables. The ED was used to test and identify the main uncertainties and their possible ranges, based on actual field data, while at the same time ensuring that the full multi-dimensional space for those variables was covered to enable the computation of multivariate equations from the minimum number of scenario runs. A full suite of 3D forward palaeo-landscape models of the Gippsland Basin was built to reconstruct the basin history from its formation to the present (Early Cretaceous to Holocene, 137-0 Ma). The models are compared to the corresponding full 3D realistic structural and stratigraphic model of the basin that has been built in Petrel (Schlumberger software). This constrains the sedimentary, stratigraphic, burial and thermal histories to the relative subsidence rates and basin-fill for each geological sequence by using the model isopachs input to the Badlands modelling. The ED required only 22 scenarios to fit 12 identified variables and test for possible interactions with each other. The most significant variables are those that control sediment supply including non-marine erodibility, rainfall, (Rainfall × Area) exponent m, Slope and critical slope while maximum % Marine Deposition and marine dispersal are also required to fill the marine accommodation space. Sea Level and subsidence only become significant when rapid enough to outpace sediment supply. The controlling factors change over time with basin development from rift to post-rift phases and interactions are highly significant.  相似文献   

Hydrochemical and isotopic characteristics of groundwater in the Ndop plain,northwest Cameroon: resilience to seasonal climatic changes     

Mengnjo Jude Wirmvem  Takeshi Ohba  Justice Yuven Suila  Wilson Yetoh Fantong  Nchemty Oscar Bate  Seigo Ooki  Engome Regina Wotany  Asobo Nkengmatia Elvis Asaah  Samuel Ndonwi Ayonghe  Gregory Tanyileke  Joseph Victor Hell 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(9):3585-3598

Shallow groundwater (>30 mbgl) is an essential source of drinking water to rural communities in the Ndop plain, northwest Cameroon. As a contribution to water management, the effect of seasonal variation on the groundwater chemistry, hydrochemical controls, drinking quality and recharge were investigated during the peaks of the dry (January) and rainy (September) seasons. Field measurements of physical parameters were preceded by sampling 58 groundwater samples during both seasons for major ions and stable isotope analyses. The groundwater, which was barely acidic (mean pH of 6) and less mineralised (TDS < 272 mg/l), showed no significant seasonal variation in temperature, pH and TDS during the two seasons. The order of cation abundance (meq/l) was Na⁺ > Ca²⁺ > Mg²⁺ > K⁺ and Na⁺ > Mg²⁺ > Ca²⁺ > K⁺ in the dry and rainy seasons, respectively, but that of anions ( \( {\text{HCO}}_{3}^{ - } \)  >  \( {\text{NO}}_{3}^{ - } \)  > Cl^? >  \( {\text{SO}}_{4}^{2 - } \)  > F^?) was similar in both seasons. This suggests a negligible effect of seasonal variations on groundwater chemistry. The groundwater, which was CaMgHCO₃ and NaHCO₃, is chemically evolved rainfall (CaMgSO₄Cl) in the area. Silicate mineral dissolution and cation-exchange were the main controls on groundwater chemistry while there was little anthropogenic influence. The major ions and TDS concentrations classified the water as suitable for human consumption as per WHO guidelines. The narrow cluster of δ¹⁸O and δD of same groundwater from both seasons between the δ¹⁸O and δD values of May–June precipitation along the Ndop Meteoric Water Line indicates meteoric origin, rapid recharge (after precipitation) and timing of recharge between May and June rainfall. Diffuse groundwater recharge mainly occurs at low altitudes (<1,400 m asl) within the plain. Besides major ions and TDS, the similar δ¹⁸O and δD of groundwater from both seasons indicate a consistent groundwater recharge and flow pattern throughout the year and resilience to present day short-term seasonal climatic variations. However, controlled groundwater abstraction is recommended given the increasing demand.  相似文献   

A two-stage fluid history for the Orocopia Schist and associated rocks related to flat subduction and exhumation,southeastern California     

Gregory J. Holk  Marty Grove  Carl E. Jacobson  Gordon B. Haxel 《International Geology Review》2017,59(5-6):639-663

ABSTRACT

Stable isotopes combined with pre-existing ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar thermochronology at the Gavilan Hills and Orocopia Mountains in southeastern California record two stages of fluid–rock interaction: (1) Stage 1 is related to prograde metamorphism as Orocopia Schist was accreted to the base of the crust during late Cretaceous–early Cenozoic Laramide flat subduction. (2) Stage 2 affected the Orocopia Schist and is related to middle Cenozoic exhumation along detachment faults. There is no local evidence that schist-derived fluids infiltrated structurally overlying continental rocks. Mineral δ¹⁸O values from Orocopia Schist in the lower plate of the Chocolate Mountains fault and Gatuna normal fault in the Gavilan Hills are in equilibrium at 490–580°C with metamorphic water (δ¹⁸O = 7–11‰). Phengite and biotite δD values from the Orocopia Schist and upper plate suggest metamorphic fluids (δD ~ –40‰). In contrast, final exhumation of the schist along the Orocopia Mountains detachment fault (OMDF) in the Orocopia Mountains was associated with alteration of prograde biotite and amphibole to chlorite (T ~ 350–400°C) and the influx of meteoric-hydrothermal fluids at 24–20 Ma. Phengites from a thin mylonite zone at the top of the Orocopia Schist and alteration chlorites have the lowest fluid δD values, suggesting that these faults were an enhanced zone of meteoric fluid (δD < –70‰) circulation. Variable δD values in Orocopia Schist from structurally lower chlorite and biotite zones indicate a lesser degree of interaction with meteoric-hydrothermal fluids. High fluid δ¹⁸O values (6–12‰) indicate low water–rock ratios for the OMDF. A steep thermal gradient developed across the OMDF at the onset of middle Cenozoic slip likely drove a more vigorous hydrothermal system within the Orocopia Mountains relative to the equivalent age Gatuna fault in the Gavilan Hills.  相似文献   

Petrography and chemistry of tungsten-rich oxycalciobetafite in hydrothermal veins of the Adamello contact aureole,northern Italy     

Lumpkin  Gregory R.  Gieré  Reto  Williams  C. Terry  McGlinn  Peter J.  Payne  Timothy E. 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,111(4):499-509

Mineralogy and Petrology - Tungsten-rich oxycalciobetafite occurs in complex Ti-rich hydrothermal veins emplaced within dolomite marble in the contact aureole of the Adamello batholith, northern...  相似文献   

40Ar/39Ar ages of L4, H5, EL6, and feldspathic ureilitic clasts from the Almahata Sitta polymict ureilite (asteroid 2008 TC3)     

Brent D. Turrin  Fara Lindsay  Jeremy S. Delaney  Jisun Park  Gregory F. Herzog  Carl Swisher Jr  Cyrena A. Goodrich 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2023,58(3):304-327

The Almahata Sitta (AhS) meteorite consists of disaggregated clasts from the impact of the polymict asteroid 2008 TC₃, including ureilitic (70%–80%) and diverse non-ureilitic materials. We determined the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar release patterns for 16 AhS samples (3–1500 μg) taken from three chondritic clasts, AhS 100 (L4), AhS 25 (H5), and MS-D (EL6), as well as a clast of ureilitic trachyandesite MS-MU-011, also known as ALM-A, which is probably a sample of the crust of the ureilite parent body (UPB). Based on our analyses, best estimates of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages (Ma) of the chondritic clasts are 4535 ± 10 (L4), 4537–4555 with a younger age preferred (H5), and 4513 ± 17 (EL6). The ages for the L4 and the H5 clasts are older than the most published ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages for L4 and H5 meteorites, respectively. The age for the EL6 clast is typical of older EL6 chondrites. These ages indicate times of argon closure ranging up to 50 Ma after the main constituents of the host breccia, that is, the ureilitic components of AhS, reached the >800°C blocking temperatures of pyroxene and olivine thermometers. We suggest that these ages record the times at which the clasts cooled to the Ar closure temperatures on their respective parent bodies. This interpretation is consistent with the recent proposal that the majority of xenolithic materials in polymict ureilites were implanted into regolith 40–60 Ma after calcium–aluminum-rich inclusion and is consistent with the interpretation that 2008 TC₃ was a polymict ureilite. With allowance for its 10-Ma uncertainty, the 4549-Ma ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of ALM-A is consistent with closure within a few Ma of the time recorded by its Pb/Pb age either on the UPB or as part of a rapidly cooling fragment. Plots of age versus cumulative ³⁹Ar release for 10 of 15 samples with ≥5 heating steps indicate minor losses of ⁴⁰Ar over the last 4.5 Ga. The other five such samples lost some ⁴⁰Ar at estimated times no earlier than 3800–4500 Ma bp . Clustering of ages in the low-temperature data for these five samples suggests that an impact caused localized heating of the AhS progenitor ~2.7 Ga ago. In agreement with the published work, 10 estimates of cosmic-ray exposure ages based on ³⁸Ar concentrations average 17 ± 5 Ma but may include some early irradiation.  相似文献   

Tiwanaku and its Hinterland: Archaeology and paleoecology of an Andean civilization,volume 1: Agroecology     

Gregory Knapp 《Geoarchaeology》1999,14(1):94-96

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