Multiscale modelling of rainstorm-induced historical intermediate floods (June–November) in the Rhone River Basin     

Nazzareno Diodato  Gianni Bellocchi 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1465-1479

This study reveals the changes and evolution of rainstorm-driven intermediate floods occurring and driving multiple damaging hydrological events in the Rhone River Basin (RRB), since 1500 until 2010. A parsimonious approach was developed to simulate the major hydroclimatological flood-producing forcing, the Multiscale Rainstorm Climate Model (STORMCLIMM). We collected the frequency of intermediate floods—a type of particularly hazardous floods commonly taking place between June and beginning of November—from the RCB to be compared to STORMCLIMM estimates. The latter, smoothed by a moving window of 21 years, results in a high-pass filter in the time domain, which magnifies the signal of forcing variations causing intermediate floods. The RRB showed large temporal variations in both extreme rainstorms and associated multidecadal intermediate-floods (MUDIF) frequency at different climatic periods and land-use systems through historical times. An important peak was observed in the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The model allowed detecting MUDIF occurred in the historical times. The situation becomes interesting with respect to recent times, because the Rhone landscape looks more vulnerable in the last decades as a consequence of land-use changes and climate shift towards more erratic and intensive storms. This evidence suggests that the interactions of land-use and climatic changes may turn into considerable vulnerability to fluvial flooding and agro-ecosystem connected to them for upcoming years. The Rhone, for example, provides basis for use of hydrological indicators (such as the one represented by STORMCLIMM) for one site or region and which, through minor modifications, can be made relevant to specific needs.  相似文献   

Stochastic tracking of mesoscale convective systems: evaluation in the West African Sahel     

Alexandros Makris  Clémentine Prieur  Théo Vischel  Guillaume Quantin  Thierry Lebel  Rémy Roca 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(2):681-691

In this work we apply a recently proposed Bayesian multiple target tracking model to mesoscale convective systems tracking. This stochastic model follows the multiple hypothesis tracking paradigm and can handle a varying number of targets while detecting the target birth, death, split, and merge events. The model is tested experimentally with real MCS targets detected from meteosat IR data over the Sahelian region. The performance of the stochastic tracking is evaluated by comparing it qualitatively and quantitatively with well established deterministic methods.  相似文献   

Quantifying the Morphological Print of Bedload Transport          下载免费PDF全文

Alain Recking  Guillaume Piton  Daniel Vazquez‐Tarrio  Gary Parker 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(6):809-822

Bedload and river morphology interact in a strong feedback manner. Bedload conditions the development of river morphology along different space and time scales; however, by concentrating the flow in preferential paths, a given morphology controls bedload for a given discharge. As bedload is a non‐linear response of shear stress, local morphology is likely to have a strong impact on bedload prediction when the shear stress is averaged over the section, as is usually done. This was investigated by comparing bedload measured in different bed morphologies (step‐pool, plane bed, riffle‐pool, braiding, and sand beds), with bedload measured in narrow flumes in the absence of any bed form, used here as a reference. The initial methodology consisted of fitting a bedload equation to the flume data. Secondly, the morphological signature of each river was studied as the distance to this referent equation. It was concluded that each morphology affects bedload in a different way. For a given average grain shear stress, the larger the river, the larger the deviation from the flume transport. Narrow streams are those morphologies that behave more like flumes; this is particularly true with flat beds, whereas results deviate from flumes to a greater extent in step‐pools. The riffle‐pool's morphology impacts bedload at different levels depending on the degree of bar development, considered here through the ratio D₈₄/D₅₀ which is used as a proxy for the local bed patchiness and morphology. In braiding rivers morphological effects are important but difficult to assess because width is dependent on transport rate. Bed morphology was found to have negligible effects in sand bed rivers where the Shields stress is usually sufficiently high to minimize the non‐linearity effects when hydraulics is averaged over the section. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Cold-season atmospheric response to the natural variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Guillaume Gastineau  Claude Frankignoul 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(1-2):37-57

The influence of the natural variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the atmosphere is studied in multi-centennial simulations of six global climate models, using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). In all models, a significant but weak influence of the AMOC changes is found during the Northern Hemisphere cold-season, when the ocean leads the atmosphere by a few years. Although the oceanic pattern slightly varies, an intensification of the AMOC is followed in all models by a weak sea level pressure response that resembles a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The signal amplitude is typically 0.5?hPa and explains about 10% of the yearly variability of the NAO in all models. The atmospheric response seems to be due primarily due to an increase of the heat loss along the North Atlantic Current and the subpolar gyre, associated with an AMOC-driven warming. Sea-ice changes appear to be less important. The stronger heating is associated to a southward shift of the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity and a decrease of the eddy activity in the North Atlantic storm track, which is consistent with the equivalent barotropic perturbation resembling the negative phase of the NAO. This study thus provides some evidence of an atmospheric signature of the AMOC in the cold-season, which may have some implications for the decadal predictability of climate in the North Atlantic region.  相似文献   

Hydraulic,physical and rheological characteristics of rain‐triggered lahars at Semeru volcano,Indonesia     

Céline Dumaisnil  Jean‐Claude Thouret  Guillaume Chambon  Emma E. Doyle  Shane J. Cronin  Surono 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(13):1573-1590

Lahars (volcanic debris flows) have been responsible for 40% of all volcanic fatalities over the past century. Mount Semeru (East Java, Indonesia) is a persistently active composite volcano that threatens approximately one million people with its lahars and pyroclastic flows. Despite their regularity, the behaviour and the propagation of these rain‐triggered lahars are poorly understood. In situ samples were taken from lahars in motion at two sites in the Curah Lengkong River, on the southeast flank of Semeru, providing estimates of the particle concentration, grain size spectrum, grain density and composition. This enables us to identify flow sediment from three categories of lahars: (a) hyperconcentrated flow, (b) non‐cohesive, clast‐ and matrix‐supported debris flow, and (c) muddy flood. To understand hyperconcentrated flow sediment transport processes, it is more appropriate to sample the active flows than the post‐event lahar deposits because in situ sampling retains the full spectrum of the grain‐size distribution. Rheometrical tests on materials sampled from moving hyperconcentrated flows were carried out using a laboratory vane rheometer. Despite technical difficulties, results obtained on the <63, <180, and <400 µm fractions of the sampled sediment, suggest a purely frictional behaviour. Importantly, and contrary to previous experiments conducted with monodisperse suspensions, our results do not show any transition towards a viscous behaviour for high shear rates. These data provide important constraints for future physical and numerical modelling of lahar flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Process oriented use of geostatistics to analyse creeping para‐glacial features          下载免费PDF全文

Eric Bardou  Guillaume Favre‐Bulle  Claire Faucheux  Nicolas Jeannée  Pascal Ornstein 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(9):1191-1201

Complex para‐glacial systems may show signs of destabilization leading to frequent and potentially hazardous debris‐flows. Understanding creeping permafrost displacement over a period of time is therefore crucial for hazard management and risks assessment. This paper presents our methodology for estimating creeping permafrost displacement based upon data derived from various survey methods and demonstrates its relevance on the Glacier Bonnard system in southern Switzerland. Geostatistical processing allowed estimation of the displacement intensity over the area of interest, as well as assessment of the interpolation quality. Although the local measurement network needs to be refined, the results largely improve the understanding of the Bonnard para‐glacial system, though highlighting the need to locally refine the measurement network. In the present case, the destabilized front advances at ~1 m/a and the upstream creeping part at ~0.4 m/a. Variance analysis also provide objective thresholds that could be used to distinguish underlying physical processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Role of the bedrock topography in the Quaternary filling of a giant estuarine basin: the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary,Eastern Canada     

Mathieu J. Duchesne  Nicolas Pinet  Karine Bédard  Guillaume St‐Onge  Patrick Lajeunesse  D. Calvin Campbell  Andrée Bolduc 《Basin Research》2010,22(6):933-951

The geometry of estuarine and/or incised‐valley basins and their protected character compared with open sea basins are favourable for the preservation of sedimentary successions. The Lower St. Lawrence Estuary Basin (LSLEB, eastern Canada) is characterized by a thick (>400 m in certain areas) Quaternary succession. High‐ and very high‐resolution seismic reflection data, multibeam bathymetry coverage completed by core and chronostratigraphic data as well as a 3‐D seismic stratigraphic model are used to document the geometrical relationships between the bedrock and the Quaternary units of the LSLEB. The bedrock geometry of LSLEB is characterized by two large troughs that are interpreted as resulting mainly from repeated (?) periods of glacial overdeepening of a pre‐Quaternary drainage system. However, other mechanisms with complex feedback effects such as differential glacio‐isostatic uplift, erosion, sedimentary supply, and subsidence may have contributed to the formation of bedrock troughs. The two large bedrock troughs are mostly filled by ～200 m thick Wisconsinan (Marine Isotopic Stages 2–4) and possibly older sediments. Overlying units recorded the retreat of the Laurentian Ice Sheet during the Late Wisconsinan (Marine Isotopic Stage 2) and estuarine conditions during the Holocene. The strong correlation existing between the bedrock topography and the thickness of the Quaternary succession is indicative of the effectiveness of the LSLEB as a sediment trap.  相似文献   

Spatial assessment of fishing effort around European marine reserves: implications for successful fisheries management   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Stelzenmüller V  Maynou F  Bernard G  Cadiou G  Camilleri M  Crec'hriou R  Criquet G  Dimech M  Esparza O  Higgins R  Lenfant P  Pérez-Ruzafa A 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(12):2018-2026

We examined the spatial dynamic of artisanal fishing fleets around five European marine protected areas (MPAs) to derive general implications for the evaluation of MPAs as fisheries management tools. The coastal MPAs studied were located off France, Malta and Spain and presented a variety of spatial designs and processes of establishment. We developed a standardized methodology to define factors influencing effort allocation and to produce fishing effort maps by merging GIS with geostatistical modelling techniques. Results revealed that in most cases the factors “distance to the no-take”, “water depth”, and “distance to the port” had a significant influence on effort allocation by the fishing fleets. Overall, we found local concentration of fishing effort around the MPA borders. Thus, neglecting the pattern of fishing effort distribution in evaluating MPA benefits, such as spillover of biomass, could hamper sound interpretation of MPAs as fisheries management tools.  相似文献   

Isotopic analysis of sulfate in a South Pacific core     

Gianni Cortecci 《Marine Geology》1975,19(5):M69-M74

The sulfur-34 isotope profile of sulfate in a red-clay sediment gravity core, 120 cm long, from the South Pacific indicates a very weak, if any, bacterial sulfate-reducing activity. This activity is not shown by the oxygen-18 distribution. The sulfur and oxygen isotopic values are close to those of the overlying seawater sulfate and to the average oceanic values.Of all the parameters mainly able to affect the bacterial activity, such as temperature, molecular oxygen and organic matter, the very small concentration of organic matter seems to be responsible for the almost total lack of sulfate reduction.  相似文献   

Linear analysis of one type of second species solutions     

Guillaume  Pierre 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1975,11(2):213-254

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