A comparative study of support vector machines and artificial neural networks for predicting precipitation in Iran     

Omid Hamidi  Jalal Poorolajal  Majid Sadeghifar  Hamed Abbasi  Zohreh Maryanaji  Hamid Reza Faridi  Lily Tapak 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,119(3-4):723-731

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A constitutive model for unsaturated soil interfaces     

Tariq B. Hamid  Gerald A. Miller 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2008,32(13):1693-1714

A constitutive model based on the disturbed state concept is presented to describe the behavior of interfaces in unsaturated soil. The model is an extension of an existing model developed for a sand–steel interface. As opposed to the original model, the modified model incorporates two independent stress variables, which are the net normal stress and matric suction. The saturated and dry state of the interface can be modeled as a special case using the constitutive model presented in this paper. The modified model is capable of capturing the main features of unsaturated interfaces observed during laboratory testing, including increasing shear strength and strain softening with increasing suction and net normal stress and increasing dilatancy with increasing suction. Laboratory tests were carried out on unsaturated interfaces in a modified direct shear test apparatus. The observed behavior of interfaces between unsaturated soil and steel plates (rough and smooth) is presented in comparison with model predictions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Towards improved post‐processing of hydrologic forecast ensembles          下载免费PDF全文

Shahrbanou Madadgar  Hamid Moradkhani  David Garen 《水文研究》2014,28(1):104-122

Forecast ensembles of hydrological and hydrometeorologial variables are prone to various uncertainties arising from climatology, model structure and parameters, and initial conditions at the forecast date. Post‐processing methods are usually applied to adjust the mean and variance of the ensemble without any knowledge about the uncertainty sources. This study initially addresses the drawbacks of a commonly used statistical technique, quantile mapping (QM), in bias correction of hydrologic forecasts. Then, an auxiliary variable, the failure index (γ), is proposed to estimate the ineffectiveness of the post‐processing method based on the agreement of adjusted forecasts with corresponding observations during an analysis period prior to the forecast date. An alternative post‐processor based on copula functions is then introduced such that marginal distributions of observations and model simulations are combined to create a multivariate joint distribution. A set of 2500 hypothetical forecast ensembles with parametric marginal distributions of simulated and observed variables are post‐processed with both QM and the proposed multivariate post‐processor. Deterministic forecast skills show that the proposed copula‐based post‐processing is more effective than the QM method in improving the forecasts. It is found that the performance of QM is highly correlated with the failure index, unlike the multivariate post‐processor. In probabilistic metrics, the proposed multivariate post‐processor generally outperforms QM. Further evaluation of techniques is conducted for river flow forecast of Sprague River basin in southern Oregon. Results show that the multivariate post‐processor performs better than the QM technique; it reduces the ensemble spread and is a more reliable approach for improving the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of precipitation extremes with the assessment of regional climate models over the Willamette River Basin,USA     

Andrew Halmstad  Mohammad Reza Najafi  Hamid Moradkhani 《水文研究》2013,27(18):2579-2590

An appropriate, rapid and effective response to extreme precipitation and any potential flood disaster is essential. Providing an accurate estimate of future changes to such extreme events due to climate change are crucial for responsible decision making in flood risk management given the predictive uncertainties. The objective of this article is to provide a comparison of dynamically downscaled climate models simulations from multiple model including 12 different combinations of General Circulation Model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM), which offers an abundance of additional data sets. The three major aspects of this study include the bias correction of RCM scenarios, the application of a newly developed performance metric and the extreme value analysis of future precipitation. The dynamically downscaled data sets reveal a positive overall bias that is removed through quantile mapping bias correction method. The added value index was calculated to evaluate the models' simulations. Results from this metric reveal that not all of the RCMs outperform their host GCMs in terms of correlation skill. Extreme value theory was applied to both historic, 1980–1998, and future, 2038–2069, daily data sets to provide estimates of changes to 2‐ and 25‐year return level precipitation events. The generalized Pareto distribution was used for this purpose. The Willamette River basin was selected as the study region for analysis because of its topographical variability and tendency for significant precipitation. The extreme value analysis results showed significant differences between model runs for both historical and future periods with considerable spatial variability in precipitation extremes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Paleo‐Proterozoic High Heat Production Richardson Granite,Great Bear Magmatic Zone,Northwest Territories,Canada: Source of U for Port Radium?     

Alireza K. SOMARIN  A. Hamid MUMIN 《Resource Geology》2012,62(3):227-242

Airborne radiometric survey and field studies outlined a large, elongate, high‐level plutonic suite within the Richardson pluton south of the Contact Lake Belt in the Great Bear Magmatic Zone, Northwest Territories, Canada. In terms of content of radioactive elements, the Richardson pluton is composed of two distinct granite types, low heat production (LHP) and high heat production (HHP). Uranium content in the LHP and HHP granites ranges from 3.0 to 4.9 ppm and 6.5 to 24.6 ppm, respectively, showing similarity of the LHP granite to average granites. Geochemical studies indicate that there is a genetic relationship between these two types of granite; the LHP granite was the early product of magma crystallization, whereas the HHP granite is the result of extensive crystal fractionation of biotite, plagioclase and apatite. The presence of magmatic fluorite in granite suggests that high fluorine content lowered the liquidus temperature of magma causing lower temperature fractionation during ascent to high crustal levels, which increased U and Th concentrations in the resultant HHP granite. Weak U mineralization occurs locally as discontinuous quartz ± hematite ± pitchblende veins and veinlets within the HHP granite. Stronger U mineralization (U ± Ag ± Ni ± Co ± Cu) occurred in the past‐producing Contact Lake and Port Radium deposits. It appears that such mineralization may have had a spatial and temporal genetic‐paragenetic relationship with the HHP granite.  相似文献   

伊犁河流域土壤盐渍化对地下水特征的响应     

麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜  海米提·依米提  祖皮艳木·买买提  许宁 《水文》2012,32(6):14-20

分析土壤盐渍化与地下水特征之间的关系对区域水土资源可持续利用具有重要意义,同时也为地下水资源管理的科学化和现代化提供技术支撑。利用136个土壤剖面的540个土壤样品及相应地下水观测数据,采用对数正态分布模型,对伊犁河流域地下水埋深、矿化度对土壤盐渍化的影响进行了研究,计算分析了防止土壤盐渍化的地下水临界深度。结果表明:研究区表层土壤含盐量随地下水矿化度的增加呈指数增加的趋势;各土层含盐量随地下水埋深的增加呈对数下降的趋势;当地下水矿化度介于1~3g/L、3~6g/L、6~10g/L与1~10g/L时,盐渍化土壤出现频率峰值所对应的地下水埋深分别为1.44 m、1.65m、1.83m与1.63m。为了防止土壤次生盐渍化,当地下水矿化度介于1~3g/L、3~6g/L、6~10g/L与1~10g/L时,地下水埋深分别控制在2.06m、2.49m、2.66m与2.24m以上。地下水矿化度越大,可在较大的地下水埋深范围内发生土壤盐渍化。对数正态分布模型分析结果与对数拟合曲线分析结果基本一致,说明研究结果是可靠的。地下水埋深2.5m可作为防止土壤盐渍化的临界地下水埋深。  相似文献   

Ion acoustic solitary waves in a weakly relativistic plasma with <Emphasis Type="Italic">q</Emphasis>-nonextensive electrons and thermal positrons     

Hamid Reza Pakzad 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,334(2):337-343

Nonlinear ion acoustic solitary waves (IASWs) are addressed in a weakly relativistic plasma consisting of cold ion fluid, q-nonextensive electron velocity distribution and Boltzmann distributed positron. The Korteweg-de Vries- (KdV) equation is derived by reductive perturbation method. We investigate the effect of nonextensive electrons on solitary waves in this medium. It is found that only compressive solitons can be appeared in the existence of nonextensive electrons. It is shown that the structure of soliton depend sensitively on the q-nonextensive parameter.  相似文献   

Frequency-interval control reconfigurability for automated processes     

Hamid Reza Shaker 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):1021-1027

Faults in automated systems will often result in undesired behavior and shut-down of the processes. The consequences of these could be damage to the plant, to personnel and resources, or even to the environment. In particular, in the case of natural disasters, faults are often inevitable. The objective of the methods for fault-tolerant control (FTC) is to prevent simple faults turning into severe failure. Therefore, FTC methods help to increase plant availability and to reduce the risk of safety hazards. However, these methods cannot be effective if sufficient redundancy does not exist in the system. A measure for control reconfigurability which reveals the level of redundancy in connection with feedback control is proposed in this paper. The proposed control reconfigurability measure is developed in particular for many applications in which one is interested in analysis and control within a frequency-interval. Compared to the other counterparts, the proposed measure encodes more information on the level of redundancy within the frequency-interval of interest. An illustrative example is given to show the computation of frequency-interval control reconfigurability and its relevance to redundant actuating capabilities in the models.  相似文献   

Applicability of different ground-motion prediction models for northern Iran   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

H. Zafarani  M. Mousavi 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(3):1199-1228

A total of 163 free-field acceleration time histories recorded at epicentral distances of up to 200 km from 32 earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging from M _w 4.9 to 7.4 have been used to investigate the predictive capabilities of the local, regional, and next generation attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations and determine their applicability for northern Iran. Two different statistical approaches, namely the likelihood method (LH) of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:341–348, 2004) and the average log-likelihood method (LLH) of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234–3247, 2009), have been applied for evaluation of these models. The best-fitting models (considering both the LH and LLH results) over the entire frequency range of interest are those of Ghasemi et al. (Seismol 13:499–515, 2009a) and Soghrat et al. (Geophys J Int 188:645–679, 2012) among the local models, Abrahamson and Silva (Earthq Spectra 24:67–97, 2008) and Chiou and Youngs (Earthq Spectra 24:173–215, 2008) among the NGA models, and finally Akkar and Bommer (Seism Res Lett 81:195–206, 2010) among the regional models.  相似文献   

GIS-based groundwater spring potential assessment and mapping in the Birjand Township,southern Khorasan Province,Iran   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

Zohre Sadat Pourtaghi  Hamid Reza Pourghasemi 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(3):643-662

Three statistical models—frequency ratio (FR), weights-of-evidence (WofE) and logistic regression (LR)—produced groundwater-spring potential maps for the Birjand Township, southern Khorasan Province, Iran. In total, 304 springs were identified in a field survey and mapped in a geographic information system (GIS), out of which 212 spring locations were randomly selected to be modeled and the remaining 92 were used for the model evaluation. The effective factors—slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), slope length (LS), plan curvature, lithology, land use, and distance to river, road, fault—were derived from the spatial database. Using these effective factors, groundwater spring potential was calculated using the three models, and the results were plotted in ArcGIS. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn for spring potential maps and the area under the curve (AUC) was computed. The final results indicated that the FR model (AUC?=?79.38 %) performed better than the WofE (AUC?=?75.69 %) and LR (AUC?=?63.71 %) models. Sensitivity and factor analyses concluded that the bivariate statistical index model (i.e. FR) can be used as a simple tool in the assessment of groundwater spring potential when a sufficient number of data are obtained.  相似文献