四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害风险评估     

张菡  刘晓璐  房鹏 《气象科技》2016,44(3):468-473

以四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害为研究对象,将烤烟气候适应性特征和自然灾害系统论相结合,利用冰雹频率、DEM高程数据、下垫面类型以及农业经济数据等资料,构建冰雹灾害风险评估指标体系,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和抗灾能力4个方面进行分析,最终建立四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害精细化风险评估模型并计算风险分布指数,借此将攀西烟区划分为由高至低的5个风险区域和1个不适宜种植区。结果表明,安宁河源头河谷地区、雅砻江下游流域以及攀西地区南部的河谷低山区和丘陵区冰雹灾害风险处于较高水平。评估结果为区域烤烟种植结构调整及冰雹灾害防御工作提供了科学指导。  相似文献   

Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods     

Keunhee Han  JunTae Choi  Chansoo Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):495-507

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.  相似文献   

台湾海峡西岸海雾研究现状与未来发展方向     

韩美  高珊  曾瑾瑜  高聪晖 《气象科技》2016,44(6):928-936

台湾海峡是一个海雾多发的交通要道,海雾灾害往往会导致人员和财产损失。对当前有关的海雾研究现状进行总结,以海峡西岸为代表,比较台湾海峡海雾和其他海域的大雾研究进展状况,主要包括海雾发生时的天气气候学特征、监测手段、微物理特征研究和海雾数值预报研究等。结果表明,台湾海峡西岸在天气气候学方面已经取得了一定的成果;监测手段随着科学技术的发展,也不断的完善,但在如何对卫星遥感监测结果进行反演方面还需进一步研究;海雾的微物理特征研究有助于海雾模式的改进和卫星遥感海雾反演技术的提高,但台湾海峡西岸尚未开始研究,是下一步的研究重点;台湾海峡海雾数值模拟工作较少,伴随观测技术的不断进步、动力统计方法的不断完善,可通过数值预报产品与传统的天气学方法相结合,提高台湾海峡海雾预报水平。  相似文献   

海风雷暴的观测分析和数值模拟研究进展   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

苏涛  苗峻峰  韩芙蓉 《气象科技》2016,44(1):47-54

沿海地区经济相对繁荣,城市化水平较高,对天气和气候的依赖性强,突发性强对流天气所造成的灾害也会更加严重;同时沿海地区的强对流天气又与海风环流密切相关,因此沿海地区海风雷暴的研究受到了日益广泛的关注,成为了气象学和大气科学中的重要研究对象。在过去的半个多世纪中,海风雷暴的观测和模拟研究取得了大量的研究成果。本文通过对这些研究工作进行回顾和总结,系统地分析了国内外的研究现状,重点讨论了海风雷暴的结构和特征、发展演变过程、触发机制及其预报预警。最后对海风雷暴未来的研究方向进行了探讨,提出了一些有待于研究或需深入研究的问题,以利于今后更好的开展有关海风雷暴的工作,加深对其发生发展规律的认识,提高预报预警水平。  相似文献   

青藏高原拉萨地块西部念青唐古拉岩群的地球化学特征及构造意义   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴勇  马绪宣  张志平  焦世文  段凯  董瀚  王小伟  马涛  李鹏举  梁志勇  曹勇刚  孔垂鹏  马亮 《地质学报》2016,90(11):3081-3098

拉萨地块西部呈断块状沿狮泉河-申扎-嘉黎蛇绿混杂岩带附近分布的念青唐古拉岩群被认为是前寒武纪变质基底。本文对念青唐古拉岩群进行了系统的岩石学、地球化学、同位素年代学及构造地质学研究。研究结果表明片岩-片麻岩-变粒岩含十字石、石榴子石等特征变质矿物,遵循粒度分异规律,其原岩可能为来自冈瓦纳古陆核北缘中新元古代弧盆体系的活动大陆边缘浊积岩。斜长角闪岩具低硅、高铁镁、富钙的基性岩特征,其原岩为岛弧型基性火山岩。念青唐古拉岩群中的花岗伟晶岩锆石LA-ICPMS U-Pb年龄为1150±13Ma,具过铝质S型花岗岩地球化学特征,可能为中元古代(1150±13 Ma)以前就开始沉积的念青唐古拉岩群基底岩石通过部分熔融形成。与花岗伟晶岩渐变过渡接触的二云斜长片麻岩第一组变质重结晶锆石U-Pb年龄为701±15 Ma,结合十字石特征变质矿物,暗示了该地区中温高压变质作用的峰期变质,变质程度达角闪岩相;第二组热液流体锆石UPb年龄为301±8.4 Ma,可能与冈瓦纳大陆北缘古特提斯洋演化过程中的岩浆热液作用有关。  相似文献   

基于混合罚函数法的多尺度电离层层析确权方法     

余龙飞  胡伍生  韩理想  郑敦勇 《测绘学报》2016,45(Z2):156-164

在利用GNSS进行像素基电离层层析时,多尺度层析方法利用权重因子将反演区域不同像素层析模型结合在一起,最终得到电离层电子密度反演结果,可以有效地解决电离层层析过程中不适应问题和最终的电离层电子密度失真现象。在多尺度电离层层析中,不同像素尺度层析模型之间权重是影响最终的电离层电子密度精度的重要因素。为了获得高精度电离层层析模型,考虑到权重因子存在着等式和不等式限制条件,采用解决最优化问题的罚函数法确定不同像素尺度电离层层析模型之间的权重。通过采用实测GNSS观测数据进行电离层多尺度电离层层析,对比了多尺度层析模型的各个子模型建模精度并进行分析,同时将罚函数法获得的模型精度与其他确权方法进行了对比,该方法可以有效地应用于多尺电离层度层析,且最终的层析模型精度优于其他确权方法,更优于单尺度电离层层析模型精度。  相似文献   

恶劣环境下GPS/BDS混合双差模糊度固定性能分析     

杨东辉  徐爱功  隋心  张涵  陈玮娴 《测绘科学》2016,41(12):27-31

针对在恶劣观测环境下每个GNSS系统只观测到较少的几颗卫星,采用标准双差模型很难实现整周模糊度固定的问题,该文对GPS/BDS系统间混合双差模型进行研究,利用该模型计算出GPS/BDS系统偏差。在此基础上,利用实验分别对模拟和真实恶劣观测环境下的模糊度固定性能进行分析,实验结果表明,恶劣环境下GPS/BDS系统间混合双差模型表现良好,相较于经典的双差模型可将模糊度固定平均所需时间分别缩短43%和33%,模糊度固定成功率分别提高107%和31%。  相似文献   

Carbon emission mitigation through regulatory policies and operations adaptation in supply chains: theoretic developments and extensions     

He  Longfei  Hu  Chenglin  Zhao  Daozhi  Lu  Haili  Fu  Xiaoxi  Li  Yiyu 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):179-207

Along with carbon emission regulations launched by governments and consumers’ rising concerns about climate changes and global carbon footprint, interests of academia and industry have risen in carbon-efficient supply chain management. This research focuses on some product supply chain to make a literature review-based investigation on proposing a theoretical framework. We also solve potential research issues of how diverse carbon emission regulations can work on supply chain performance as well as emission; in what way we can find coordination mechanisms and optimal policies for supply chain operations to abate emission and enhance system profitability within different scenarios; and also to evaluate the effect on emission reduction for each emission regulation aforementioned through comparing their associated supply chain performances and system emission. Both practitioners in industry and academia might find this study useful, as it generates concepts with a formal framework of potential and values theoretical issues in the emerging field of carbon-efficient supply chain management which combines carbon emission regulations with mature operation management to enrich the theory of supply chain management. This study is perhaps to be valuable and constructive both for operational decisions in firms and for the enactment as well as implementation of emission-reduction regulations. This study should activate further potential researches.  相似文献   

Review on Montane Forest Eco-hydrology in Arid Area     

He Zhibin  Du Jun  Chen Longfei  Zhu Xi  Zhao Minmin 《地球科学进展》2016,31(10):1078-1089

Since the forest eco-hydrology of arid area shows a well sensitivity of the global climate change, the relationship between forest and water and the hydrological function has attracted the attention of academic communites and management departments. This paper expounds the research progress in arid mountain forest eco-hydrology, and analyses the formation and stable mechanism of forest patch pattern, the relationship between forest and water yield and the response of forest eco-hydrology to climate change from three aspects: Forest spatial pattern, hydrological process and its response to climate change. In addition, combined with the current research progress, the research emphases in the future are put forward: Strengthening the research on the coupling of vegetation pattern and hydrological process; solving the scale problem by using remote sensing technique and model; enhancing the understanding towards the hydrological function of forest; determining the suitable forest scale which can balance the relationship of ecology and hydrological effect.  相似文献   

黑龙江饶河枕状玄武岩地质、地球化学特征及其构造属性   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

何松  孙晓猛  张旭庆  万阔  郑涵  李多姿 《世界地质》2016,35(4):942-954

为了确定饶河玄武岩的构造属性,在野外地质观察的基础上,对玄武岩进行岩石学研究和地球化学分析。玄武岩具有典型的枕状构造、淬冷边、中空骸晶和鬣刺结构等特征,反映其形成于海底喷发环境。化学分析样品具有高TiO_2、MgO和低Al_2O_3、CaO、P_2O_5、K_2O等特征,富集大离子亲石元素(Rb、Sr和Ba),微量元素蛛网图呈向上隆起形态,稀土元素配分曲线为右倾型(∑LREE/∑HREE为5.8~6.5),无δEu异常(0.92~0.97),表明样品具有洋岛玄武岩特征。主量和微量元素构造环境判别图指示了样品形成于洋岛或板内环境。样品与亚速尔型和夏威夷型洋岛玄武岩地球化学特征对比,表现出明显的夏威夷型洋岛玄武岩特征。岩石源区分析揭示出岩浆具有地幔热柱起源,并有先期交代地幔熔体的混入,岩浆源区还受壳幔循环的影响。研究表明,饶河枕状玄武岩为夏威夷型洋岛玄武岩,形成于洋壳消减阶段的洋中脊轴外板内喷发环境,为饶河地区存在成熟的洋盆提供直接证据。结合区域研究成果,认为饶河地区经历了古太平洋板块的扩张、洋中脊轴外板内地幔柱上涌、洋壳俯冲消减以及向佳木斯地块仰冲增生的构造演化过程。  相似文献