Climatic Change, Wars and Dynastic Cycles in China Over the Last Millennium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David D. Zhang  C. Y. Jim  George C-S Lin  Yuan-Qing He  James J. Wang  Harry F. Lee 《Climatic change》2006,76(3-4):459-477

In recent years, the phenomenon of global warming and its implications for the future of the human race have been intensively studied. In contrast, few quantitative studies have been attempted on the notable effects of past climatic changes upon human societies. This study explored the relationship between climatic change and war in China by comparing high-resolution paleo-climatic reconstructions with known war incidences in China in the last millennium. War frequencies showed a cyclic pattern that closely followed the global paleo-temperature changes. Strong and significant correlations were found between climatic change, war occurrence, harvest level, population size and dynastic transition. During cold phases, China suffered more often from frequent wars, population decline and dynastic changes. The quantitative analyses suggested that the reduction of thermal energy input during a cold phase would lower the land carrying capacity in the traditional agrarian society, and the population size, with significant accretions accrued in the previous warm phase, could not be sustained by the shrinking resource base. The stressed human-nature relationship generated a ‘push force’, leading to more frequent wars between states, regions and tribes, which could lead to the collapse of dynasties and collapses of human population size. War frequencies varied according to geographical locations (North, Central and South China) due to spatial variations in the physical environment and hence differential response to climatic change. Moreover, war occurrences demonstrated an obvious time lag after an episode of temperature fall, and the three geographical regions experienced different length of time lags. This research also shows that human population increases and collapses were correlated with the climatic phases and the social instabilities that were induced by climate changes during the last millennium. The findings proposed a new interpretation of human-nature relationship in the past, with implications for the impacts of anomalous global warming on future human conflicts.  相似文献   

Internal structural variations in a debris-avalanche deposit from ancestral Mount Shasta,California, USA   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Tadahide Ui  Harry Glicken 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1986,48(4):189-194

Various parameters of the internal structure of a debris-avalanche deposit from ancestral Mount Shasta (size and percentage of block facies in each exposure, number and width of jigsaw cracks, and number of rounded clasts in matrix facies) were measured in order to study flow and emplacement mechanisms. Three types of coherent blocks were identified: blocks of massive or brecciated lava flows or domes, blocks of layered volcaniclastic deposits, and blocks of accidental material, typically from sedimentary units underlying Shasta Valley. The mean maximum dimension of the three largest blocks of layered volcaniclastic material is 220 m, and that of the lava blocks, 110 m. This difference may reflect plastic deformation of blocks of layered volcaniclastic material; blocks of massive or brecciated volcanic rock deformated brittly and may have split into several smaller blocks. The blocks in the deposit are one order of magnitude larger, and the height of collapse 1100 m higher, than the Pungarehu debris-avalanche deposit at Mount Egmont, New Zealand, although the degree of fracturing is about the same.This suggests either that the Shasta source material was less broken, or that the intensity of any accompanying explosion was smaller at ancestral Mount Shasta. The Shasta debris-avalanche deposit covered the floor of a closed basin; the flanks of the basin may have retarded the opening of jigsaw cracks and the formation of stretched and deformed blocks such as those of the Pungarehu debris-avalanche deposit.  相似文献   

Frictional characteristics of Teflon–steel interfaces under dynamic conditions     

M. C. Constantinou  John Caccese  Harry G. Harris 《地震工程与结构动力学》1987,15(6):751-759

An experimental study to assess the frictional characteristics of Teflon–steel interfaces under dynamic conditions is described. Tests were conducted on unfilled Teflon sliding on stainless steel polished to a surface roughness of less than 0.05 μm CLA. The bearing pressure was 1.38, 3.45 and 6.9 N/mm², the frequency of sliding was 0.5 and 1 Hz and the acceleration of excitation, imposed by a small shaking table, was between 0.05 and 0.5g. It was found that friction drops with decreases in the acceleration of excitation and drops with increases in the bearing pressure. It was observed that Teflon–steel interfaces have the tendency to slide continuously regardless of the value of acceleration. This is very important in base isolation applications because it prevents high frequency input to the structure.  相似文献   

Selective sequential dissolution of organic-rich stream sediments from Talvivaara, Finland     

Harry Sandstrm 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》1984,21(1-3)

Organic-rich stream sediments, a widely used material in geochemical prospecting in Finland, were investigated by analyzing Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu and Zn after a series of selective extractions.Forty-seven organic-rich stream-sediment samples were collected in the vicinity of a sulphide mineralization in Talvivaara, eastern Finland. Loss on ignition of the samples at 500°C was 20–95%. pH of the samples, measured in the water pressed from the samples, was 3.4–6.2 with a mean of 4.2.The < 0.5 mm grain-size fraction was subjected to a sequential extraction as follows: NH₄-acetate for exchangeable cations; cold NH₂OH·HCl for dissolution of Mn oxides; H₂O₂ for destruction of organic material; hot NH₂OH·HCl for dissolution of Fe oxides; HF/HClO₄/aqua regia for dissolving the residue. Each extraction was analyzed by flame AAS for Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu and Zn.Manganese and Co are mostly in exchangeable form and in the residue, while the proportion complexed by the organic components is minimal. Iron and Ni own a lot of exchangeable character although a significant proportion of these elements is complexed by the organic components. Most of Cu is in organic form. Zinc is the element most evenly distributed between extractions.  相似文献   

Factors controlling the lengths of channel-fed lava flows     

Harry Pinkerton  Lionel Wilson 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1994,56(2):108-120

Factors which control lava flow length are still not fully understood. The assumption that flow length as mainly influenced by viscosity was contested by Walker (1973) who proposed that the length of a lava flow was dependent on the mean effusion rate, and by Malin (1980) who concluded that flow length was dependent on erupted volume. Our reanalysis of Malin's data shows that, if short duration and tube-fed flows are eliminated, Malin's Hawaiian flow data are consistent with Walker's assertion. However, the length of a flow can vary, for a given effusion rate, by a factor of 7, and by up to 10 for a given volume. Factors other than effusion rate and volume are therefore clearly important in controlling the lengths of lava flows. We establish the relative importance of the other factors by performing a multivariate analysis of data for recent Hawaiian lava flows. In addition to generating empirical equations relating flow length to other variables, we have developed a non-isothermal Bingham flow model. This computes the channel and levee width of a flow and hence permits the advance rates of flows and their maximum cooling-limited lengths for different gradients and effusion rates to be calculated. Changing rheological properties are taken into account using the ratio of yield strength to viscosity; available field measurements show that this varies systematically from the vent to the front of a lava flow. The model gives reasonable agreement with data from the 1983–1986 Pu'u Oo eruptions and the 1984 eruption of Mauna Loa. The method has also been applied to andesitic and rhyolitic lava flows. It predicts that, while the more silicic lava flows advance at generally slower rates than basaltic flows, their maximum flow lengths, for a given effusion rate, will be greater than for basaltic lava flows.  相似文献   

Three-Dimensional Geopositioning Accuracy of Ikonos Imagery   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Clive Fraser  Harry Hanley  & Takeshi Yamakawa 《The Photogrammetric Record》2002,17(99):465-479

An investigation of the accuracy potential of Ikonos 1m satellite imagery is reported. Three sensor orientation/triangulation models are applied to stereo- and three-image configurations of "Geo" imagery with the aim of achieving 3D geopositioning to sub-metre accuracy. The models considered comprise rational functions with bias compensation, affine projection and the direct linear transformation. Test results from the Melbourne Ikonos Testfield are reported and these show that with modest provision of good quality ground control, Ikonos "Geo" imagery can yield 3D object-point determination to an accuracy of 0.5m in planimetry and 0.7m in height. The accuracy achieved is not only consistent with expectations for rigorous sensor orientation models, but is also readily attainable in practice with only a small number of ground control points being required  相似文献   

Study Of `Soft' Night-Time Surface-Layer Decoupling Over Forest Canopies In A Land-Surface Model     

Yves Delage  Paul A. Bartlett  J. Harry McCaughey 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,103(2):253-276

The cause of a night-time land-surface model cold bias over forest canopies at threedifferent sites is studied in connection with various formulations of turbulent transferand the phenomenon of decoupling between the surface and the boundary layer. Themodel is the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), a leading internationally knownmodel that has been tested over a variety of instrumented sites. The bias was first attributed to a deficient turbulent transfer and a few formulations were compared. One formulation is the classical log-linear profile with a sharp cut-off of the fluxes at a critical Richardsonnumber around 0.2, while in the other ones the flux decreases less rapidly with increasingstatic stability. While the surface-layer formulations have an impact on the modelled canopy temperature, other causes were found for the negative bias. The CLASS model neglected the heat capacity of the air trapped inside the canopy and its inclusion multiplied theeffective heat capacity of the canopy, by a factor ranging from 2.3 to 3.4 for the canopies studied, and reduced the error. A correction was also made to the air specific humidity at canopy level and the topsoil thermal conductivity was changed from that of organic matter to that of mineral soil. With these modifications, and using the incoming longwave radiative flux instead of the net longwave flux, the bias almost completely disappeared. Using ascheme with more heat transfer at large static stability, obtained by assuming that thefluxes decrease in magnitude with height in the surface layer, reduced the original biaswhile using the log-linear formulation amplified the cold bias. The impact of the turbulent transfer formulations is much reduced when they are applied to model runs in which the other above modifications have been made.The phenomenon of decoupling is presented and its understanding is complementedwith the new notions of `hard' versus `soft' decoupling and complete versus incompletedecoupling, depending on the impact decoupling has on the model and on the effectiveness of the model in achieving the decoupling. The geostrophic wind speed is a determiningfactor in separating cases of hard decoupling (rare) from the soft cases (frequent) while the completeness of the decoupling primarily depends on the form of the turbulent transfer curve as a function of static stability.  相似文献   

Municipal initiatives for managing dunes in coastal residential areas: a case study of Avalon, New Jersey, USA     

Karl F. Nordstrom  Nancy L. Jackson  Michael S. Bruno  Harry A. de Butts 《Geomorphology》2002,47(2-4)

The characteristics of foredunes created in a municipal management program on a developed barrier island are evaluated to identify how landforms used as protection structures can be natural in appearance and function yet compatible with human values. Shoreline management zones include a naturally evolving, undeveloped segment; a noneroding, developed segment; eroding and noneroding segments of an “improved beach” where dunes have been built by artificial nourishment; and a privately built, artificially nourished dune on the shoreline of an inlet.A disastrous storm in 1962 resulted in an aggressive program for building dunes using sand fences, vegetation plantings, purchase of undeveloped lots, and sediment backpassing to maintain beach widths and dune elevations. The present nourished and shaped foredune in the improved beach is higher, wider, and closer to the berm crest than the natural dune. Restricted inputs of aeolian sand keep the surface flat and poorly vegetated. A stable section of this engineered shore has a wider beach, and sand fences have created a higher foredune with greater topographic diversity. The cross shore zonation of vegetation here is more typical of natural dunes, but the environmental gradient is much narrower. The privately built dune is low, narrow, and located where it could not be created naturally. Foreshore and aeolian sediments in the undeveloped segment and the improved beach are similar in mean grain size (0.16–0.21 mm) and sorting (0.31–0.39φ), but sediment on the surface of the nourished dune is coarser (28.1% gravel) with a more poorly sorted sand fraction (1.30φ) representing lag elements on the deflation surface.Willingness to enhance beaches and dunes for protection has reduced insurance premiums and allowed the municipality to qualify for funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to replace lost sediment, thus placing an economic value on dunes. Success of the management program is attributed to: (i) timing property-purchase and dune-building programs to periods immediately after storms (causing residents to accept high dunes that restrict access or views); (ii) instituting a vigorous education program (reminding residents of hazards during nonstorm periods); (iii) maintaining control over local sediment supplies (to keep pace with erosion and create new shoreline environments); (iv) investing private and municipal economic resources in landforms (qualifying them for external funds for replacement); and (v) maintaining, augmenting, or simply tolerating biodiversity and natural processes (retaining a natural heritage).  相似文献   

Impact of small-scale structures on estuarine circulation     

Zhuo Liu  Yinglong J. Zhang  Harry V. Wang  Hai Huang  Zhengui Wang  Fei Ye  Mac Sisson 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(4-5):509-533

We present a novel and challenging application of a 3D estuary-shelf model to the study of the collective impact of many small-scale structures (bridge pilings of 1 m × 2 m in size) on larger-scale circulation in a tributary (James River) of Chesapeake Bay. We first demonstrate that the model is capable of effectively transitioning grid resolution from ~?400 m down to ~?1 m near the pilings without introducing undue numerical artifact. We then show that despite their small sizes and collectively small area as compared to the total channel cross-sectional area, the pilings exert a noticeable impact on the large-scale circulation, and also create a rich structure of vortices and wakes around the pilings. As a result, the water quality and local sedimentation patterns near the bridge piling area are likely to be affected as well. However, when evaluating over the entire waterbody of the project area, the near field effects are weighed with the areal percentage which is small compared to that for the larger unaffected area, and therefore the impact on the lower James River as a whole becomes relatively insignificant. The study highlights the importance of the use of high resolution in assessing the near-field impact of structures.  相似文献   

Climate change and plague history in Europe     

Ricci P. H. Yue  Harry F. Lee 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2018,61(2):163-177

Previous research that reported the linkage between climate change and plague activity primarily refers to the immediate effect of short-term climatic variation. Yet, decades of discussion about the climate-plague association cannot determine the precise role of climate in shaping plague dynamics. One reason for this discrepancy originates from the narrow selection of spatio-temporal settings for comprehensive analysis of the correlation, leading to a limited consideration of the complexity of possible dynamics. By analyzing a 414-year long record of plague outbreak in pre-industrial Europe and the corresponding climatic data in multi-scale, we find little evidence to support climate-plague correlation in (1) both climatic variations and large-scale climatic phenomena, (2) both country scale and continental scale, (3) annual to inter-annual scale, and (4) both linear and non-linear analytic approaches. The null-result should not be viewed as a general rejection of other recent findings related to climate-plague association; nevertheless, it suggests that a wider consideration of scales, sensitivity checks and consideration of contexts should be included in explaining and predicting plague transmission under contemporary global climate conditions.  相似文献