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41.
42.
Conventional graphical or computer methods for identifying aquifer parameters have their own inevitable limitations. This paper proposes a computer method based on a drawdown model and a heuristic approach of simulated annealing (SA) to determine the best‐fit aquifer parameters of the confined and unconfined aquifer systems. The drawdown model for the confined aquifer is the Theis solution and the unconfined aquifer is the Neuman solution. The estimated results of proposed method have better accuracy than those of the graphical methods and agree well with those of the computer methods based on the extended Kalman filter and Newton's method. Finally, the sensitivity analyses for the control parameters of SA indicate that the proposed method is very robust and stable in parameter identification procedures. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
43.
Developing models to predict on‐site soil erosion and off‐site sediment transport at the agricultural watershed scale represent an on‐going challenge in research today. This study attempts to simulate the daily discharge and sediment loss using a distributed model that combines surface and sub‐surface runoffs in a small hilly watershed (< 1 km2). The semi‐quantitative model, Predict and Localize Erosion and Runoff (PLER), integrates the Manning–Strickler equation to simulate runoff and the Griffith University Erosion System Template equation to simulate soil detachment, sediment storage and soil loss based on a map resolution of 30 m × 30 m and over a daily time interval. By using a basic input data set and only two calibration coefficients based, respectively, on water velocity and soil detachment, the PLER model is easily applicable to different agricultural scenarios. The results indicate appropriate model performance and a high correlation between measured and predicted data with both Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (Ef) and correlation coefficient (r2) having values > 0.9. With the simple input data needs, PLER model is a useful tool for daily runoff and soil erosion modeling in small hilly watersheds in humid tropical areas. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
44.
Beam-noise spectrum levels were measured with high-resolution horizontal arrays of 22 to 100 wavelengths long at frequencies between 50 and 320 Hz in the Mediterranean Sea. Results indicate that the low-frequency noise field has two major components one of which is due to the dynamic and temporally variable distant shipping. Beam noise level differences of 10 to 20 dB were observed between the resolved distant shipping and the uncorrelated background noise. The measured distributions of beam-noise-intensity fluctuations were found to be non-Gaussian. The beam-noise-intensity distribution was found to depend on aperture length, frequency, bandwidth, integration time, and steering angle. The shapes of the beam-noise-intensity cumulative distribution functions were variable and qualitatively described by nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process as shown with a simulation of the shipping-induced noise field. Temporal characteristics of beam-noise-intensity fluctuations were found to have noise level fades at 30% probability below the median noise level with durations of 1 h for observations over 10 h.  相似文献   
45.
This study combines neural networks and fuzzy arithmetic to present a counterpropagation fuzzy–neural network (CFNN) for streamflow reconstruction. The CFNN has a rule‐based control, a modified self‐organizing counterpropagation network, and a fuzzy control predictor. It can generate rules automatically by increasing the training data to improve the accuracy of streamflow reconstruction. The CFNN establishes the input and output relationship of a watershed without set‐up parameters. The parameters are estimated systematically by the approach converging to an optimal solution. One sequence of data generated by the Monte Carlo method is used to demonstrate the accuracy of the CFNN. The streamflow data of the Da‐chia River, in central Taiwan, is also used to evaluate the performances of the CFNN. The results indicate the reliability and accuracy of the CFNN for streamflow reconstruction. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
46.
In many engineering problems, such as flood warning systems, accurate multistep‐ahead prediction is critically important. The main purpose of this study was to derive an algorithm for two‐step‐ahead forecasting based on a real‐time recurrent learning (RTRL) neural network that has been demonstrated as best suited for real‐time application in various problems. To evaluate the properties of the developed two‐step‐ahead RTRL algorithm, we first compared its predictive ability with least‐square estimated autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) models on several synthetic time‐series. Our results demonstrate that the developed two‐step‐ahead RTRL network has efficient ability to learn and has comparable accuracy for time‐series prediction as the refitted ARMAX models. We then investigated the two‐step‐ahead RTRL network by using the rainfall–runoff data of the Da‐Chia River in Taiwan. The results show that the developed algorithm can be successfully applied with high accuracy for two‐step‐ahead real‐time stream‐flow forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
47.
Dengue Fever (DF) has been identified by the World Health organization (WHO) as one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in tropical and sub-tropical areas. During 2007, in particular, there were over 2,000 DF cases in Taiwan, which was the highest number of cases in the recorded history of Taiwan epidemics. Most DF studies have focused mainly on temporal DF patterns and its close association with climatic covariates, whereas they have understated spatial DF patterns (spatial dependence and clustering) and composite space–time effects. The present study proposes a spatio-temporal DF prediction approach based on stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. Core and site-specific knowledge bases are considered, including climate and health datasets under conditions of uncertainty, space–time dependence functions, and a Poisson regression model of climatic variables contributing to DF occurrences in southern Taiwan during 2007. The results show that the DF outbreaks in the study area are highly influenced by climatic conditions. Furthermore, the analysis can provide the required “one-week-ahead” outbreak warnings based on spatio-temporal predictions of DF distributions. Therefore, the proposed approach can provide the Taiwan Disease Control Agency with a valuable tool to timely identify, control, and even efficiently prevent DF spreading across space–time.  相似文献   
48.
The dense molecular cloud cores that form stars, like other self-gravitating objects, undergo bulk oscillations. Just at the point of gravitational instability, their fundamental oscillation mode has zero frequency. We study, using perturbation theory, the evolution of a spherical cloud that possesses such a frozen mode. We find that the cloud undergoes a prolonged epoch of subsonic, accelerating contraction. This slow contraction occurs whether the cloud is initially inflated or compressed by the oscillation. The subsonic motion described here could underlie the spectral infall signature observed in many starless dense cores.  相似文献   
49.
1 IntroductionInthetraditionalmapandGIS ,accordingtothedifferentgeometricandelementalattributecharac teristicsofspatialobjects,theycanbedescribedaspointsymbol,linearsymbolandsurfacesymbol.Afeatureclassisgivenwithaspecificsymbol.Be causethosesymbolsdonote…  相似文献   
50.
Previous studies of the Green River kerogen only provide apparently contradictory conclusions about the size of the straight-chain aliphatic structures as well as the manner in which these structures form part of the kerogen matrix.The present investigation is an attempt to resolve this contradiction. A mild stepwise oxidation procedure was followed so that extensive degradation of kerogen-derived intermediates could be prevented. Products isolated from each oxidation step were analyzed by conventional GLC techniques, GC-MS, and proton-NMR measurements in order to ascertain the significance of the straight-chain aliphatic structures present in the Green River kerogen.The following results were obtained: (a) Green River kerogen contains a substantial portion (ca 2–4 carbons out of every 10) of straight-chain aliphatic structures which are longer than C4, (b) the kerogen matrix forms a three-dimensional network of non-straight-chain clusters interconnected by long polymethylene cross-links, (c) the ‘core’, in comparison with the ‘periphery’ of the kerogen matrix, contains a greater proportion of straight-chain and branched aliphatic structures which are attached to the kerogen matrix at one terminus, (d) some of the straight-chain structures may exist as physically entrapped components in the kerogen matrix.  相似文献   
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