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121.
The variance of collapse capacity is an important constituent of probabilistic methodologies used to evaluate the probability of collapse of structures subjected to earthquake ground motions. This study evaluates the effect of ground motion randomness (i.e. record‐to‐record (RTR) variability) and uncertainty in the deterioration parameters of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems on the variance of collapse capacity. Collapse capacity is evaluated in terms of a relative intensity defined as the ratio of ground motion intensity to a structure strength parameter. The effect of RTR variability on the variance of collapse capacity is directly obtained by performing dynamic analyses of deteriorating hysteretic models for a set of representative ground motions. The first‐order second‐moment (FOSM) method is used to quantify the effect of deterioration parameter uncertainty. In addition to RTR variability, the results indicate that uncertainty in the displacement at the peak (cap) strength and the post‐capping stiffness significantly contribute to the variance of collapse capacity. If large dispersion of these parameters exists, the effect of uncertainty in deterioration parameters on the variance of collapse capacity may be comparable to that caused by RTR variability. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
122.
Christoph Hauer Günther Unfer Hubert Holzmann Stefan Schmutz Helmut Habersack 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):827-850
The impact of climate-induced discharge change on fish habitats, based on 1951–2008 time series, was investigated within the crystalline catchment of the Grosse Mühl River in Northern Austria. A significant trend change of air temperature, based on Mann–Whitney statistical testing, was recorded for spring 1989 (P?=?98.9 %) and summer 1990 (P?=?99.9 %). This led to a pronounced increase in summer low flow periods. Hydrodynamic-numerical (one-dimensional/two-dimensional) modelling was applied to simulate the changing habitat characteristics due to decreasing discharge in relation to various morphological patterns (riffle-pool/plane-bed reaches). Using bathymetric data, which were sampled on cross sectional measurements, we clearly determined that plane-bed reaches (featureless bed forms) are sensitive to climate-related, reduced discharge, whereas riffle-pool reaches continued to exhibit suitable physical fish habitats even under extreme low-flow conditions. The impact of the decreased summer discharge on instream habitats was strong for subadult and adult grayling which have been used as target fish species. In situ measurements in microhabitats (velocity/depth) revealed habitat suitabilities. These values were taken as biotic input for habitat evaluation on the micro scale. The findings clearly show that river morphology is a decisive parameter in terms of habitat preservation and restoration in the context of the future impacts of climate change (decreased discharge). 相似文献
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Helmut Rüssmann 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1976,14(1):33-37
A linear difference equation arising in the proof of Moser's twist mapping theorem is solved and optimal estimates for the solution are established. 相似文献
127.
Martin Seeliger Dominik Brill Stefan Feuser Melanie Bartz Ercan Erkul Daniel Kelterbaum Andreas Vtt Christina Klein Felix Pirson Helmut Brückner 《Geoarchaeology》2014,29(2):138-155
Pergamum (modern: Bergama) was operating an important harbour used by military forces and merchants at the city of Elaia during Hellenistic and Roman Imperial times. Harbour‐related facilities such as warehouses, breakwaters and wharfs document the importance of this harbour site not only for the Pergamenians. This paper focuses on the purpose and age of six submerged wall structures situated approximately 1 km south of the ancient closed harbour basin of Elaia. Geoelectric cross‐sections and semi‐aquatic coring near these walls failed to detect any solid basement under the walls which excludes their possible use as breakwaters or wharfs. Instead, the walls were most likely delineating and separating evaporation ponds of salt works, which compares well with similar structures from other periods and places around the Mediterranean. Combined OSL and 14C‐dating determined the construction age of the installation between the 4th and 6th centuries A.D. Subsequent (re‐)uses are likely and are in agreement with findings from archaeological surveys. 相似文献
128.
Qinghai Zhang Helmut Willems Lin Ding 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,102(5):1427-1445
The Paleocene-Early Eocene larger benthic foraminifera (LBF) in the far eastern Neo-Tethyan Ocean of Tibet still remain poorly known. Here, we present a novel, high-resolution larger foraminiferal biozonation from the shallow-water limestones in Tibet, which will improve our current understanding of the larger foraminiferal evolution in the eastern Neo-Tethyan Ocean. Based on one continuous section at Tingri and three separate sections at Gamba, ten Shallow Benthic Zones (SBZ 1–10) have been designated in Tibet by following the principle of Oppel Zone. In contrast to those in Europe, the Paleocene LBFs in Tibet are characterized by high diversification of Lockhartia, Kathina, Daviesina, Miscellanea, Ranikothalia, and Operculina and show progressively increasing diversity of genera and species during SBZ 2–5. Adult dimorphism and large shell size of some LBFs as well as differentiation of the diversity between genera and species initiated as early as SBZ 3. It suggests that the occurrence of the Larger Foraminifera Turnover (LFT) was probably not synchronous in the entire Neo-Tethyan Ocean, because in Europe, the LFT was generally thought to occur at the beginning of SBZ 5. During the Early Eocene, the LBFs in Tibet decreased markedly on the generic level and increased on the species level, and some new genera (Alveolina, Orbitolites, Nummulites, Assilina, Discocyclina) have gained predominance in Tibet. It is nearly identical to the evolution of the LBFs in Europe and indicates a high-degree homogenization of the LBFs in the entire Neo-Tethyan Ocean. Furthermore, the Paleocene-Eocene (P-E) boundary in shallow-water environments has been clearly identified by us, and it is situated in the upper part of SBZ 5 and associated with no evident biotic turnover of shallow benthic foraminiferal communities. The possible diachroneity of the LFT in the Neo-Tethyan Ocean and the evident lagging of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) behind the LFT imply that the LFT could only be the result of a natural evolutionary process and has no linkage with the PETM. Notably, a transient but distinct larger foraminiferal extinction and origination (LFEO) event has been found in Tibet, which is characterized by a sudden disappearance of all Paleocene lamellar-perforate LBFs, such as Lockhartia, Kathina, Daviesina, Miscellanea, Ranikothalia, and Operculina, and the initial dominance of the Early Eocene porcellaneous-walled Alveolina. The LFEO marks the boundary between SBZ 5 and 6, and might only occur in the low-latitude areas of the Neo-Tethyan Ocean. Surprisingly, the LFEO coincides with the initial recovery of the Carbon Isotope Excursion (CIE), and their synchronicity implies that some possible mechanisms causing the rapid recovery of the CIE probably had also led to the LFEO in the shallow-water environments. 相似文献
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130.
The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths 总被引:39,自引:0,他引:39
Eric F. Lambin B. L. Turner Helmut J. Geist Samuel B. Agbola Arild Angelsen John W. Bruce Oliver T. Coomes Rodolfo Dirzo Günther Fischer Carl Folke P. S. George Katherine Homewood Jacques Imbernon Rik Leemans Xiubin Li Emilio F. Moran Michael Mortimore P. S. Ramakrishnan John F. Richards Helle Sknes Will Steffen Glenn D. Stone Uno Svedin Tom A. Veldkamp Coleen Vogel Jianchu Xu 《Global Environmental Change》2001,11(4)
Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are better supported by case study evidence. Cases reviewed support the conclusion that neither population nor poverty alone constitute the sole and major underlying causes of land-cover change worldwide. Rather, peoples’ responses to economic opportunities, as mediated by institutional factors, drive land-cover changes. Opportunities and constraints for new land uses are created by local as well as national markets and policies. Global forces become the main determinants of land-use change, as they amplify or attenuate local factors. 相似文献