Improving a regional model using reduced complexity and parameter estimation   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Kelson VA  Hunt RJ  Haitjema HM 《Ground water》2002,40(2):132-143

The availability of powerful desktop computers and graphical user interfaces for ground water flow models makes possible the construction of ever more complex models. A proposed copper-zinc sulfide mine in northern Wisconsin offers a unique case in which the same hydrologic system has been modeled using a variety of techniques covering a wide range of sophistication and complexity. Early in the permitting process, simple numerical models were used to evaluate the necessary amount of water to be pumped from the mine, reductions in streamflow, and the drawdowns in the regional aquifer. More complex models have subsequently been used in an attempt to refine the predictions. Even after so much modeling effort, questions regarding the accuracy and reliability of the predictions remain. We have performed a new analysis of the proposed mine using the two-dimensional analytic element code GFLOW coupled with the nonlinear parameter estimation code UCODE. The new model is parsimonious, containing fewer than 10 parameters, and covers a region several times larger in areal extent than any of the previous models. The model demonstrates the suitability of analytic element codes for use with parameter estimation codes. The simplified model results are similar to the more complex models; predicted mine inflows and UCODE-derived 95% confidence intervals are consistent with the previous predictions. More important, the large areal extent of the model allowed us to examine hydrological features not included in the previous models, resulting in new insights about the effects that far-field boundary conditions can have on near-field model calibration and parameterization. In this case, the addition of surface water runoff into a lake in the headwaters of a stream while holding recharge constant moved a regional ground watershed divide and resulted in some of the added water being captured by the adjoining basin. Finally, a simple analytical solution was used to clarify the GFLOW model's prediction that, for a model that is properly calibrated for heads, regional drawdowns are relatively unaffected by the choice of aquifer properties, but that mine inflows are strongly affected. Paradoxically, by reducing model complexity, we have increased the understanding gained from the modeling effort.  相似文献   

An evaluation of beached bird monitoring approaches     

Seys J  Offringa H  Van Waeyenberge J  Meire P  Kuijken E 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,44(4):322-333

Oil-pollution monitoring at sea through beach bird surveying would undoubtedly benefit from a further standardisation of methods, enhancing the efficiency of data collection. In order to come up with useful recommendations, we evaluated various approaches of beached bird collection at the Belgian coast during seven winters (1993-1999). Data received in a passive way by one major rehabilitation centre were compared to the results of targeted beach surveys carried out at different scales by trained ornithologists: 'weekly' surveys - with a mean interval of 9 days - restricted to a fixed 16.7 km beach stretch, 'monthly' surveys over the entire coastline (62.1 km) and an annual 'international' survey in Belgium over the same distance at the end of February. Data collected through Belgian rehabilitation centres concern injured, living birds collected in a non-systematical way. Oil rates derived from these centres appear to be strongly biased to oiled auks and inshore bird species, and are hence of little use in assessing the extent of oil pollution at sea. The major asset of rehabilitation centres in terms of data collection seems to be their continuous warning function for events of mass mortality. Weekly surveys on a representative and large enough section rendered reliable data on oil rates, estimates of total number of bird victims, representation of various taxonomic groups and species-richness and were most sensitive in detecting events quickly (wrecks, oil-slicks, severe winter mortality, etc.). Monthly surveys gave comparable results, although they overlooked some important beaching events and demonstrated slightly higher oil rates, probably due to the higher chance to miss short-lasting wrecks of auks. Since the monthly surveys in Belgium were carried out by a network of volunteers and were spread over a larger beach section, they should be considered as best performing. Single 'international beached bird surveys' in February gave reliable data on total victim number (once the mean ratio between numbers in various months is known) and oil rate (provided a sufficiently large sample can be collected), but failed in tracking events. It is a particularly attractive approach because of its long tradition, resulting in invaluable long-term databases, and the uniformity in which these surveys are organised on a large scale. The minimal distance for a monthly survey amounts to 25-30 km (40-50% of Belgian coastline) up to 40 km (65%) in order to attain sound figures for oil rate and species-richness, respectively. These distances are primarily determined by the number of bird corpses that may be collected and are hence a function of beaching intensity and corpse detection rate.  相似文献   

Rates of salinization by free convection in high-permeability sediments: insights from numerical modeling and application to the Dutch coastal area   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Vincent?E.?A.?PostEmail author  Henk?Kooi 《Hydrogeology Journal》2003,11(5):549-559

Numerical modeling and dimensional analysis is used to study the salinization of thick, high-permeability aquifers by free convection from a salt source at the surface. Current understanding of this process mainly concerns the initial stages of salinization only (boundary-layer development, break-up into fingers and initial phase of finger descent). In the modeling, special attention is paid to the role of two processes in the long-term salinization rate: (1) the progressive loss of salt from fingers by lateral diffusion, and (2) the coalescence of fingers during their descent. From the numerical simulations a relationship is derived that describes the development of the horizontally averaged salinity with depth and time as a function of permeability and initial-density contrast for aquifer Rayleigh numbers up to Ra =6,000. This relationship is consistent with and provides an extension to previous generalized relationships of the rate of finger descent. Its applicability to real-world aquifers (Ra >10⁵) that include complexities due to anisotropy, heterogeneity, and mechanical dispersion is discussed. Application to the Pleistocene coastal aquifer of the Netherlands (thickness 200 m, permeability 10^-11 m²) suggests that salinization of the aquifer during historic episodes of inundation by seawater occurred within decades.

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Resumen Se utiliza modelos numéricos y un análisis dimensional para estudiar la salinización de acuíferos potentes de alta permeabilidad por convección libre a partir de una fuente salina superficial. El conocimiento acutal de este proceso se limita a las fases iniciales de la salinización (desarrollo de la capa de contorno, creación de digitaciones y fase inicial de la progresión de éstas). En la modelación, se presta atención especial al papel desempeñado por dos procesos de salinización a largo plazo: (1) la pérdida progresiva de sal por difusión lateral desde las digitaciones, y (2) la coalescencia de las digitaciones durante su avance. A partir de las simulaciones numéricas, se obtiene una relación que describe el desarrollo de la salinidad con la profundidad y el tiempo, promediada horizontalmente, el cual depende de la permeabilidad y del contraste inicial de densidad para números de Rayleigh inferiores a 6.000. Esta relación es coherente con índices previos generalizados del avance de las digitaciones, y representa una extensión a estos. Se discute su aplicabilidad a acuíferos reales (con números de Rayleigh superiores a 105), que tienen complejidades asociadas a la anisotropía, la heterogeneidad y la dispersión mecánica. La aplicación al acuífero costero Pleistoceno de los Países Bajos (20 m de potencia y 10-11 m2 de permeabilidad) sugiere que la salinización tuvo lugar en décadas, debido a episodios históricos de inundación por aguas marinas.

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Résumé Une modélisation numérique et une analyse dimensionnelle ont été mises en oeuvre pour étudier la salinisation d'aquifères épais et à forte perméabilité par convection libre d'une source de sel en surface. La compréhension habituelle de ce processus concerne principalement les étapes initiales de la salinisation seule (développement d'une couche limite, partition en digitations et phase initiale de développement des digitation). Dans la modélisation, une attention particulière a été portée au rôle de deux processus du taux de salinisation à long terme: (1) la perte progressive de sel dans les digitations par diffusion latérale et (2) la coalescence des digitations au cours de leur développement. À partir de simulations numériques, une relation a été obtenue qui permet de décrire l'extension de la salinité horizontalement en profondeur et au cours du temps en fonction de la perméabilité et du contraste initial de densité pour des nombres de Rayleigh de l'aquifère jusqu'à Ra =6,000. Cette relation est compatible avec ces résultats et fournit une extension des relations précédemment généralisées du taux de développement des digitations. On discute son applicabilité à des aquifères réels (Ra >105) incluant des complexités liées à l'anisotropie, l'hétérogénéité et la dispersion mécanique. L'application à l'aquifère côtier du Pléistocène des Pays-Bas (épaisseur environ 200 m, perméabilité environ10–11 m²) laisse penser que la salinisation de cet aquifère au cours d'épisodes historiques d'inondation par la mer s'est produit durant des décennies.

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Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Toon Haer  Eugenia Kalnay  Michael Kearney  Henk Moll 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1627-1636

Global sea-level rise poses a significant threat not only for coastal communities as development continues but also for national economies. This paper presents estimates of how future changes in relative sea-level rise puts coastal populations at risk, as well as affect overall GDP in the conterminous United States. We use four different sea-level rise scenarios for 2010–2100: a low-end scenario (Extended Linear Trend) a second low-end scenario based on a strong mitigative global warming pathway (Global Warming Coupling 2.6), a high-end scenario based on rising radiative forcing (Global Warming Coupling 8.5) and a plausible very high-end scenario, including accelerated ice cap melting (Global Warming Coupling 8.5+). Relative sea-level rise trends for each US state are employed to obtain more reasonable rates for these areas, as long-term rates vary considerably between the US Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts because of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, local subsidence and sediment compaction, and other vertical land movement. Using these trends for the four scenarios reveals that the relative sea levels predicted by century's end could range – averaged over all states – from 0.2 to 2.0 m above present levels. The estimates for the amount of land inundated vary from 26,000 to 76,000 km². Upwards of 1.8 to 7.4 million people could be at risk, and GDP could potentially decline by USD 70–289 billion. Unfortunately, there are many uncertainties associated with the impact estimates due to the limitations of the input data, especially the input elevation data. Taking this into account, even the most conservative scenario shows a significant impact for the US, emphasizing the importance of adaptation and mitigation.  相似文献   

Three-Dimensional Structure of Optimal Nonlinear Excitation for Decadal Variability of the Thermohaline Circulation          下载免费PDF全文

ZU Zi-Qing  MU Mu  Henk A.DIJKSTRA 《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,(6):410-416

The decadal variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation（THC） is investigated within a three-dimensional ocean circulation model using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method. The results show that the optimal initial perturbations of temperature and salinity exciting the strongest decadal THC variations have similar structures： the perturbations are mainly in the northwestern basin at a depth ranging from 1500 to 3000 m. These temperature and salinity perturbations act as the optimal precursors for future modifications of the THC, highlighting the importance of observations in the northwestern basin to monitor the variations of temperature and salinity at depth. The decadal THC variation in the nonlinear model initialized by the optimal salinity perturbations is much stronger than that caused by the optimal temperature perturbations, indicating that salinity variations might play a relatively important role in exciting the decadal THC variability. Moreover, the decadal THC variations in the tangent linear and nonlinear models show remarkably different characteristics, suggesting the importance of nonlinear processes in the decadal variability of the THC.  相似文献   

The role of hand calculations in ground water flow modeling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Haitjema H 《Ground water》2006,44(6):786-791

Most ground water modeling courses focus on the use of computer models and pay little or no attention to traditional analytic solutions to ground water flow problems. This shift in education seems logical. Why waste time to learn about the method of images, or why study analytic solutions to one-dimensional or radial flow problems? Computer models solve much more realistic problems and offer sophisticated graphical output, such as contour plots of potentiometric levels and ground water path lines. However, analytic solutions to elementary ground water flow problems do have something to offer over computer models: insight. For instance, an analytic one-dimensional or radial flow solution, in terms of a mathematical expression, may reveal which parameters affect the success of calibrating a computer model and what to expect when changing parameter values. Similarly, solutions for periodic forcing of one-dimensional or radial flow systems have resulted in a simple decision criterion to assess whether or not transient flow modeling is needed. Basic water balance calculations may offer a useful check on computer-generated capture zones for wellhead protection or aquifer remediation. An easily calculated "characteristic leakage length" provides critical insight into surface water and ground water interactions and flow in multi-aquifer systems. The list goes on. Familiarity with elementary analytic solutions and the capability of performing some simple hand calculations can promote appropriate (computer) modeling techniques, avoids unnecessary complexity, improves reliability, and is likely to save time and money. Training in basic hand calculations should be an important part of the curriculum of ground water modeling courses.  相似文献