Estimation of indirect economic loss caused by house destruction in a natural disaster     

Toshio Fujimi  Hirokazu Tatano 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(3):1367-1388

Designing appropriate post-disaster emergency and recovery housing policies requires accurate estimation of the indirect or “flow” loss generated by the involuntary displacement of households to housing other than their own destroyed homes. We employed the stated choice method to measure residence choice following a hypothetical disaster in a procedure developed to estimate flow loss due to house destruction. This method was applied to households in the city of Nagaoka in Niigata Prefecture to estimate flow loss for a range of residence types and residence attributes following relocation. The results revealed that the relocation residence type itself (such as a shelter, temporary dwelling, rental housing, or one’s own home) had a substantial effect on residence choice. Regarding residence attributes, residential expenses such as rent, housing loans, and spaciousness had a significant effect on residence choice. Moreover, we found that respondents placed a very high value on living in their own home compared with other residence types, indicating that subsidizing the prompt repair and rebuilding of private homes is likely to be an effective recovery support policy. In addition, a cost–benefit analysis of our results revealed that rent subsidies are more efficient than the construction of public housing as a means of financially assisting economically constrained households after a disaster.  相似文献   

The time-delayed solar cycle luminosity modulation by sub-surface magnetic flux tubes     

Hirokazu Yoshimura 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1994,315(3):189-203

In order to explore the mechanism of the solar cycle luminosity change observed by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) I experiment on board of the spacecraft Solar Maximum Mission, we examined running mean time profiles of the daily ACRIM data from the declining phase of solar cycle 21 to the rising phase of solar cycle 22. By comparing them with those of the daily sunspot number, integrated surface magnetic field flux, integrated He I 10830 Å line equivalent width data, and two kinds of data sets of the daily integrated Ca II K line index as indices of the surface magnetic activities, we found (i) that the running mean time profiles of the six independent data sets have several peaks and valleys in common in one solar cycle with time intervals on the order of a few hundreds of days, and (ii) that the peaks and valleys of the ACRIM data profiles followed the peaks and valleys of all the other five indices of the surface activities by 40 to 60 days. This time delay phenomenon suggests (i) that the luminosity modulation was not directly caused by dark and bright features of the surface magnetic activities that the other five indices represent, and (ii) that the missing sunspot radiative flux which was blocked by sub-surface magnetic flux tubes of sunspots and sunspot groups should be re-radiated 40 to 60 days after the surface emergence of the magnetic flux tubes. The concept of the time delay resolves the enigma of the missing sunspot radiative flux and the enigma of the ACRIM experiment that the luminosity dropped when a sunspot or a sunspot group appeared on the surface while the yearly mean of the luminosity decreased and increased along with the decrease and increase of the yearly sunspot number of the 11-year solar cycle. A model of the mechanism to understand these phenomena is presented and its application to other stars is suggested.  相似文献