Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8  

Zonghu Liao  Yang Hong  Jun Wang  Hiroshi Fukuoka  Kyoji Sassa  Dwikorita Karnawati  Faisal Fathani 《Landslides》2010,7(3):317-324

An early warning system has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island, Indonesia. The prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping and hotspot identification component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide inventory, etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system () and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e., Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically based, rainfall-induced landslide prediction model SLIDE. The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a factor of safety that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex terrains. In use, the land-surface “where” information will be integrated with the “when” rainfall triggers by the landslide prediction model to predict potential slope failures as a function of time and location. In this system, geomorphologic data are primarily based on 30-m Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data, digital elevation model (DEM), and 1-km soil maps. Precipitation forcing comes from both satellite-based, real-time National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts. The system’s prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory, and results show that the system successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Integration of spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets in this prototype system enables us to further develop a regional, early warning tool in the future for predicting rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia.  相似文献   

Analytical expansions of torque-free motions for short and long axis modes     

Hiroshi Kinoshita 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1992,53(4):365-375

Torque-free motion of a rigid body is integrable and its solution is expressed in terms of elliptic functions and elliptic integrals. The conventional analytical expression of the solution, however, is complicated and not suitable for hand-calculation. Recently the rotational motions of small celestial bodies in the solar system are frequently investigated by numerically integrating the equations of motion instead of using the analytical solution, since the numerical evaluation of the analytical and exact solution is a little bit difficult. As the observational accuracy of the rotational motions of the small bodies in the solar system is quite low, what we need for the reduction of these observations are rough estimates of the period of Eulerian motion ( or the free precession period) and the amplitudes of the main periodic terms. Here we give simple analytical expansions of torque-free motions for short- and long-axis modes, which are correct up to the second-order of a small parameter. These expressions include only trigonometric functions and are easily evaluated by hand calculation for estimates of the essential quantities from which we can determine a global rotational motion of the torque-free motion. They can also be used as the zero-th order solution in a perturbation method, when the motion is perturbed by external torques.  相似文献