Risk and uncertainty analysis in the planning stages of a risk decision-making process   总被引：7，自引：6，他引：1  

Wen-Ko Hsu  Chun-Pin Tseng  Wei-Ling Chiang  Cheng-Wu Chen 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(3):1355-1365

Natural disaster risk, a long-time concern in the insurance industry, is increasingly recognized as a present danger in the business strategies of risk control and enterprise management agencies. Floods and earthquakes can cause massive loss of life and infrastructure, resulting in business interruption and heavy casualties. Many of the short-term developmental strategies employed throughout the world have only served to exacerbate the impact of natural disasters. Therefore, this study presents a review of formal methods that are commonly used in risk and uncertainty analysis in planning and concludes with a critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the different priority setting methods. Our focus is a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints.  相似文献   

Development of sustainability evaluation model for implementing product service systems     

H. Allen Hu  S. H. Chen  C. W. Hsu  C. Wang  C. L. Wu 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2012,9(2):343-354

A new business model, product service systems, is proposed to promote a shift in focus from selling purely products to selling functions. This is achieved through a mix of products and services that fulfill the same consumer demands, while eliciting less environmental impact. Development of product service systems has become an increasingly important strategy in achieving social, economic, and environmental sustainability because product service systems advocates reducing resource consumption, while delivering better and more widely available goods and services. This paper proposes an evaluation framework of sustainable performance to implement product service systems. A literature review discusses 32 criteria categorized into two aspects: product and organization. The fuzzy Delphi method is then applied to identify the consistency of criteria. The relative weights of the selected criteria are determined using Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Results indicate that the top three criteria in product aspect are maintenance system (weight?=?0.172), use time or frequency (weight?=?0.145), and price of the product (weight?=?0.132). For the organization aspect, the top three criteria are integrated service plan (weight?=?0.197), product development and design (weight?=?0.144) and optimized transportation network (weight?=?0.089). The demand for implementing product service systems is completely different from selling traditional goods because product service systems must consider the issue of sustainability. The proposed evaluation framework can help companies identify the potential products suitable in implementing product service systems.  相似文献   

Appraisal of storm beach buffer width for cyclonic waves     

F.-C. Lee  John R.-C. Hsu  W.-H. Lin 《Coastal Engineering》2011

The loss of beach sand from berm and dune due to high waves and surge is a universal phenomenon associated with sporadic storm activities. To protect the development in a coastal hazard zone, hard structures or coastal setback have been established in many countries around the world. In this paper, the requirement of a storm beach buffer, being a lesser extent landward comparing with the coastal setback to ensure the safety of infrastructures, is numerically assessed using the SBEACH model for three categories of wave conditions in terms of storm return period, median sand grain size, berm width, and design water level. Two of the key outputs from the numerical calculations, berm retreat and bar formation offshore, are then analysed, as well as beach profile change. After having performed a series of numerical studies on selected large wave tank (LWT) test results with monochromatic waves using SBEACH, we may conclude that: (1) Berm erosion increases and submerged bar develops further offshore as the storm return period increases for beach with a specific sand grain size, or as the sand grain reduces on a beach under the action of identical wave condition; (2) Higher storm waves yield a large bar to form quicker and subsequently cause wave breaking on the bar crest, which can reduce the wave energy and limit the extent of the eroding berm; (3) A larger buffer width is required for a beach comprising small sand grain, in order to effectively absorb storm wave energy; and (4) Empirical relationships can be tentatively proposed to estimate the storm beach buffer width, from the input of wave conditions and sediment grain size. These results would benefit a beach nourishment project for shore protection or design of a recreational beach.  相似文献   

Entry angle at a line sink during withdrawal from a two-layer flow     

Shaohua Marko Hsu  Chien-Jung Liu  Wei-Sheng Yu 《Advances in water resources》2008

A rectangular flume with dimensions of length 180 cm, height 60 cm and width 20 cm was used to observe the entry angle (i.e. angle between the interface and the centerline of the slot) of a two-layer flow withdrawal by a line sink. Saline water was used to form a bottom density current and red dye was applied. Based on the experimental data, one could see that the dimensionless discharge is more influential on the entry angle than the depth-averaged concentration of the lower-layer flow. Thus, the influence of concentration on experimental conditions is negligible for evaluation of the entry angle. The absolute values of entry angles increase with the absolute values of the dimensionless discharge. Almost all absolute values of the theoretical angle are bigger than that of the measured angle with a deviation bounded within 0.15 rad. The influence on the entry angle from the dimensionless discharge is symmetrical between the drawdown curve (interface above the slot) and the suck-up curve (interface below the slot). This phenomenon can be seen from a simplified form of a theoretical formula.  相似文献   

Optimization and capacity expansion of a water distribution system     

Nien-Sheng Hsu  Wei-Chen Cheng  Wen-Ming Cheng  Chih-Chiang Wei  William W.-G. Yeh 《Advances in water resources》2008

This paper develops an iterative procedure for capacity expansion studies for water distribution systems. We propose a methodology to analyze an existing water distribution system and identify the potential bottlenecks in the system. Based on the results, capacity expansion alternatives are proposed and evaluated for improving the efficiency of water supply. The methodology includes a network flow based optimization model, four evaluation indices, and a series of evaluation steps. We first use a directed graph to configure the water distribution system into a network. The network flow based model optimizes the water distribution in the system so that different expansion alternatives can be evaluated on a comparable basis. This model lends itself to linear programming (LP) and can be easily solved by a standard LP code. The results from the evaluation tool help to identify the bottlenecks in the water distribution system and provide capacity expansion alternatives. A useful complementary tool for decision making is composed of a series of evaluation steps with the bottleneck findings, capacity expansion alternatives, and the evaluation of results. We apply the proposed methodology to the Tou-Qian River Basin, located in the northern region of Taiwan, to demonstrate its applicability in optimization and capacity expansion studies.  相似文献   

Dam overtopping risk assessment considering inspection program   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Jan-Tai Kuo  Yung-Chia Hsu  Yeou-Koung Tung  Keh-Chia Yeh  Jian-De Wu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(3):303-313

Safety inspection of large dams in Taiwan is conducted every 5 years. The practice does not take into consideration uncertainty of dam conditions. The goal of this study is to determine the optimal dam inspection interval under the consideration of overtopping risk incorporating uncertainty gate availability. In earlier studies, assessment of overtopping risk only considered the uncertainties in reservoir properties and natural randomness of hydrologic events without giving much thought to the availability of spillway gates. As a result, the overtopping risk could be underestimated. In this study, an innovative concept is proposed to evaluate dam overtopping by taking into account spillway gate availability. The framework consists of three parts: (1) evaluation of conditional overtopping risk for different numbers of malfunctioning spillway gates; (2) evaluation of spillway gate availability; and (3) dam inspection scheduling. Furthermore, considerations are given to overtopping risk, inspection cost, and dam break cost for determining the optimal inspection schedule. The methodology is applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan and to evaluate its time-dependent overtopping risk. Results show that overtopping risk considering the availability of the spillway gates is higher than the one without considering the availability of the spillway gates.  相似文献   

The nature of the L chondrite parent body's disruption as deduced from high-pressure phases in the Sixiangkou L6 chondrite     

Shaolin Li  Weibiao Hsu 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2018,53(10):2107-2122

The disruption of the L chondrite parent body (LCPB) at ~470 Ma is currently the best-documented catastrophic celestial impact event, based on the large number of L chondritic materials associated with this event. Uranium-lead (U-Pb) dating of apatite and its high-pressure decomposition product, tuite, in the Sixiangkou L6 chondrite provides a temporal link to this event. The U-Pb system of phosphates adjacent to shock melt veins was altered to varying degrees and the discordance of the U-Pb system correlates closely with the extent of apatite decomposition. This suggests that the U-Pb system of apatite could be substantially disturbed by high-temperature pulse during shock compression from natural impacts, at least on the scale of mineral grains. Although many L chondrites can be temporally related to the catastrophic LCPB impact event, the shock conditions experienced by each individual meteorite vary. This could be due to the different geologic settings of these meteorites on their parent body. The shock pressure and duration derived from most meteorites may only reflect local shock features rather than the impact conditions, although they could provide lower limits to the impact conditions. The Sixiangkou shock duration (~4 s), estimated from high-pressure transformation kinetics, provides a lower limit to the high-pressure pulse of the LCPB disruption impact. Combined with available literature data of L chondrites associated with this impact event, our results suggest that the LCPB suffered a catastrophic collision with a large projectile (with a diameter of at least 18–22 km) at a low impact velocity (5–6 km s⁻¹). This is consistent with astronomical estimates based on the dynamical evolution of L chondritic asteroids.  相似文献   

Static bay beach concept for scientists and engineers: A review     

John R.-C. Hsu  M.-J. Yu  F.-C. Lee  Lindino Benedet 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Headland-bay beach (HBB) is one of the most prominent physiographic features on the oceanic margin of many countries in the world. Under the influence of a predominant swell, its curved periphery in natural environment may reach static equilibrium and remains stable without sediment supply from updrift and/or a riverain source within its own embayment. Coastal scientists and engineers have attempted to develop mathematical expressions to quantify this ideal bay shape since the 1940s. As the scenario with depleting sediment supply has become a common reality on many parts of the world coastline in more recent time, some coastal engineers have advocated a rational approach to mimicking the static bay shape found in nature in order to mitigate beach erosion as well as for coastal management. Nowadays, many useful applications have emerged since the publication of the parabolic bay shape equation (PBSE) developed for static equilibrium planform (SEP) in late 1980s. The advance in modern computer technologies and international collaboration has further facilitated the exchange of knowledge and applications of this static bay beach concept (SBBC).  相似文献   

Direct numerical simulations of flow over two-dimensional and three-dimensional ripples and implication to sediment transport: Steady flow     

Kiran Bhaganagar  Tian-Jian Hsu 《Coastal Engineering》2009

A well resolved and highly accurate direct numerical simulation (DNS) solver has been developed to understand the implication of hydrodynamics to sediment transport. In the first part of the study we focus on steady flow over two-dimensional and three-dimensional ripples at two Reynolds numbers Re_τ = 180 and 400 (defined by channel half-height and wall-friction velocity) in a channel geometry. The DNS scheme is based on a fourth-order vertical velocity and second-order vertical vorticity formulation, which resolves the difficulties in pressure boundary condition encountered when solving the Navier–Stokes equations. The complex boundary introduced due to the ripples has been imposed in the Cartesian domain using an elegant immersed boundary method. Detailed hydrodynamic analysis has revealed turbulence statistics (in particular, the higher order) and henceforth, the flow structures are sensitive — whether the ripples are two-dimensional or three-dimensional. The importance of fluctuating component of the bottom stress in addition to its mean component; and its significance to sediment transport and ripple migration speed have been investigated.  相似文献   

Development and validation of a finite element morphological model for shallow water basins     

Christian Ferrarin  Georg Umgiesser  Andrea Cucco  Tai-Wen Hsu  Aron Roland  Carl L. Amos 《Coastal Engineering》2008

Recognising the importance of understanding sediment dynamics to evaluate the status of a coastal lagoon environment, this work has been focused on the investigation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes occurring in such basins. In order to describe the lagoon system, a modelling approach combining hydrodynamics, waves and sediment dynamics has been developed. The framework of the numerical model consists of a finite element hydrodynamic model, a third generation finite element spectral wave model and a sediment transport and morphodynamic model for both cohesive and non-cohesive sediments. The model adopts the finite element technique for spatial integration, which has the advantage to describe more accurately complicated bathymetry and irregular boundaries for shallow water areas. The developed model has been applied to test cases and to a very shallow tidal lagoon, the Venice Lagoon, Italy. Numerical results show good agreement with water level, waves and turbidity measurements collected in several monitoring stations inside the Lagoon of Venice. Such a model represents an indispensable tool in analysing coastal problems and assessing morphological impacts of human interference.  相似文献