Recent past and future patterns of the Etesian winds based on regional scale climate model simulations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Christina Anagnostopoulou  Prodromos Zanis  Eleni Katragkou  Ioannis Tegoulias  Konstantia Tolika 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(7-8):1819-1836

The aim of this work is to investigate the recent past and future patterns of the Etesian winds, one of the most persistent localized wind systems in the world, which dominates the wind regime during warm period over the Aegean Sea and eastern Mediterranean. An objective classification method, the Two Step Cluster Analysis (TSCA), is applied on daily data from regional climate model simulations carried out with RegCM3 for the recent past (1961–1990) and future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) constrained at lateral boundaries either by ERA-40 reanalysis fields or the global circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5. Three distinct Etesian patterns are identified by TSCA with the location and strength of the anticyclonic action center dominating the differences among the patterns. In case of the first Etesian pattern there is a ridge located over western and central Europe while for the other two Etesian patterns the location of the ridge moves eastward indicating a strong anticyclonic center over the Balkans. The horizontal and vertical spatial structure of geopotential height and the vertical velocity indicates that in all three Etesian patterns the anticyclonic action center over central Europe or Balkan Peninsula cannot be considered as an extension of the Azores high. The future projections for the late 21st century under SRES A1B scenario indicate a strengthening of the Etesian winds associated with the strengthening of the anticyclonic action center, and the deepening of Asian thermal Low over eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore the future projections indicate a weakening of the subsidence over eastern Mediterranean which is rather controlled by the deepening of the south Asian thermal Low in line with the projected in future weakening of South Asian monsoon and Hadley cell circulations.  相似文献   

Where Am I? Investigating Map Matching During Self‐Localization With Mobile Eye Tracking in an Urban Environment     

Peter Kiefer  Ioannis Giannopoulos  Martin Raubal 《Transactions in GIS》2014,18(5):660-686

Self‐localization is the process of identifying one's current position on a map, and it is a crucial part of any wayfinding process. During self‐localization the wayfinder matches visually perceptible features of the environment, such as landmarks, with map symbols to constrain potential locations on the map. The success of this visual matching process constitutes an important factor for the success of self‐localization. In this research we aim at observing the visual matching process between environment and map during self‐localization with real‐world mobile eye tracking. We report on one orientation and one self‐localization experiment, both in an outdoor urban environment. The gaze data collected during the experiments show that successful participants put significantly more visual attention to those symbols on the map that were helpful in the given situation than unsuccessful participants. A sequence analysis revealed that they also had significantly more switches of visual attention between map symbols and their corresponding landmarks in the environment, which suggests they were following a more effective self‐localization strategy.  相似文献   

Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer response     

Ioannis Trichakis  Ioannis Nikolos  George P. Karatzas 《水文研究》2011,25(18):2827-2836

Following many applications artificial neural networks (ANNs) have found in hydrology, a question has been rising for quantification of the output uncertainty. A pre‐optimized ANN simulated the hydraulic head change at two observation wells, having as input hydrological and meteorological parameters. In order to calculate confidence intervals (CI) for the ANN output two bootstrap methods were examined namely bootstrap percentile and BCa (Bias‐Corrected and accelerated). The actual coverage of the CI was compared to the theoretical coverage for different certainty levels as a means of examining the method's reliability. The results of this work support the idea that the bootstrap methods provide a simple tool for confidence interval computation of ANNs. Comparing the two methods, the percentile requires fewer calculations and yields narrower intervals with similar actual coverage to that of BCa. Overall, the actual coverage was proved lower than desired when not modeled points were present in the data subset. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical modelling of the effects of foundation scour on the response of a bridge pier     

Ciancimino  Andrea  Anastasopoulos  Ioannis  Foti  Sebastiano  Gajo  Alessandro 《Acta Geotechnica》2022,17(9):3697-3717

Foundation scour can have a detrimental effect on the performance of bridge piers, inducing a significant reduction of the lateral capacity of the footing and accumulation of permanent settlement and rotation. Although the hydraulic processes responsible for foundation scour are nowadays well known, predicting their mechanical consequences is still challenging. Indeed, its impact on the failure mechanisms developing around the foundation has not been fully investigated. In this paper, numerical simulations are performed to study the vertical and lateral response of a scoured bridge pier founded on a cylindrical caisson foundation embedded in a layer of dense sand. The sand stress–strain behaviour is reproduced by employing the Severn-Trent model. The constitutive model is firstly calibrated on a set of soil element tests, including drained and undrained monotonic triaxial tests and resonant column tests. The calibration procedure is implemented considering the stress and strain nonuniformities within the samples, by simulating the laboratory tests as boundary value problems. The numerical model is then validated against the results of centrifuge tests. The results of the simulations are in good agreement with the experimental results in terms of foundation capacity and settlement accumulation. Moreover, the model can predict the effects of local and general scour. The numerical analyses also highlight the impact of scouring on the failure mechanisms, revealing that the soil resistance depends on the hydraulic scenario.

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Slip rates on the Helike Fault, Gulf of Corinth, Greece: new evidence from geoarchaeology     

Ioannis K. Koukouvelas  Dora Katsonopoulou  Steven Soter  Paraskevas Xypolias 《地学学报》2005,17(2):158-164

Palaeoseismological and archaeological analysis of a trench enabled us to estimate the Holocene slip rates on the East Helike Fault, flanking the south-western Gulf of Corinth. We recognized two major fault strands within the trench: the ‘north fault’ controls a succession of three colluvial wedges and the deposition of a 2.7 m thick sedimentary sequence. The ‘south fault’ controls the deposition of a 2.9-m thick brownish-red colluvium. Based on colluvial stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating of the sediments suggests that the slip rate was c. 0.3 mm yr⁻¹ from 10 250 to c. 1400 bp , when it increased dramatically to c. 2.0 mm yr⁻¹ after a strong earthquake event near 1400 bp . The faster slip rate evidently increased the sedimentation rate.  相似文献   

Development and validation of a novel-based combination operational air quality forecasting system in Greece   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Stamatis Zoras  Vasilios Evagelopoulos  Ioannis Pytharoulis  Georgios Kallos 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2010,106(3-4):127-133

In the present work, a model combination is developed in order to provide the public, in north-western Greece, with the next day air quality forecast. Generally, the development and deployment of a real-time numerical air quality prediction system is technically challenging while even more in complex terrain. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/research/tapm) is a hydrostatic prognostic mesoscale model. It has been calibrated for the area in recent studies and used in air quality assessments. In 2007, TAPM has started operating in a real-time operational mode for the prediction of next day’s weather forecast, particulate matter (PM₁₀ with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm) daily average concentration and Air Pollution Indexes. The model setup is a link up between TAPM and SKIRON modeling system (http://forecast.uoa.gr).  相似文献   

Pile foundation analysis and design using experimental data and 3-D numerical analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Emilios M. Comodromos  Mello C. Papadopoulou  Ioannis K. Rentzeperis 《Computers and Geotechnics》2009

Capacity based design of pile foundations limits the soil-structure interaction mechanism to group bearing capacity estimation, neglecting, in most cases, the contribution of the raft. On the other hand, a straightforward, nonlinear, 3-D analysis, accounting for soil and structural nonlinearities and the effects arising from pile–soil–pile interaction, would be extremely high CPU-time demanding and will necessitate the use of exceptionally powerful numerical tools. With the aim of investigating the most efficient, precise, and economical design for a bridge foundation, a hybrid method, compatible with the notion of sub-structuring is proposed. It is based on both experimental data and nonlinear 3-D analysis. The first step to achieve these targets is a back-analysis of a static pile load test, fitting values for soil shear strength, deformation modulus, and shear strength mobilization at the soil–pile interface. Subsequently, the response of 2 × 2 and 3 × 3 pile group configurations is numerically established and the distribution of the applied load to the raft and the characteristic piles is discussed. Finally, a design strategy for an optimized design of pile raft foundations subjected to non-uniform vertical loading is proposed.  相似文献   

Magnitude of latent heat in thermally loaded clays     

Sergio Samat  Laurent Brochard  Ioannis Stefanou 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(14):1926-1957

Temperature changes are known to induce specific couplings in clay, in particular, an anomalously high thermal pressurization in undrained conditions or a thermal compaction in drained conditions, both of which are potential threats for the mechanical stability and sealing capacity of the geomaterials. Thermodynamical analysis of those peculiar thermomechanical couplings points to a potentially important latent energy, which in turn could limit the temperature change upon heating or cooling. The direct measurement of latent energy developed during a laboratory geomechanical test is challenging. Instead, proper identification of thermal hardening in conventional experiments with temperature changes provides an alternative route to estimate latent energy. In this work, existing laboratory thermomechanical tests of clays are analyzed with a rigorous thermodynamic framework to quantify the magnitude of latent energy in thermomechanically loaded clays. A thermodynamically consistent constitutive model for fully saturated clays that combines two key features, (a) the temperature dependence of the blocked energy and (b) the framework of bounding plasticity, is proposed. The performance of the model is validated by reproducing results obtained in laboratory tests for Boom and Opalinus clays. The thermomechanical loads considered to validate the model performance were then used to estimate the percentage of work that remains latent in the clayey material during plastic yielding. We find that the magnitude of latent energy is quite significant, typically a few tens of percent of the total dissipated energy, and increases significantly with temperature. Accordingly, it is expected to play an important role in the thermomechanical response of clays.  相似文献   

Empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of Icelandic buildings affected by the 2000 sequence of earthquakes     

Ioanna Ioannou  Bjarni Bessason  Ioannis Kosmidis  Jón Örvar Bjarnason  Tiziana Rossetto 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(12):5875-5903

In June 2000, two Mw6.5 earthquakes occurred within a 4-day interval in the largest agricultural region of Iceland causing substantial damage and no loss of life. The distance between the earthquake epicentres and the fault rupture was approximately 15 km. Nearly 5000 low-rise residential buildings were affected, some of which were located between the faults and exposed to strong ground motion from both events. The post-earthquakes damage and repair costs for every residential building in the epicentral region were assessed for insurance purposes. The database is detailed and complete for the whole region and represents one of the best quality post-earthquake vulnerability datasets used for seismic loss estimation. Nonetheless, the construction of vulnerability curves from this database is hampered by the fact that the loss values represent the cumulative damage from two sequential earthquakes in some areas, and single earthquakes in others. A novel methodology based on beta regression is proposed here in order to define the geographical limits on areas where buildings sustained cumulative damage and predict the seismic losses for future sequence of events in each area. The results show that the average building loss in areas affected by a single event is below 10% of the building replacement value, whilst this increases to an average of 25% in areas affected by the two earthquakes. The proposed methodology can be used to empirically assess the vulnerability in other areas which experienced sequence of events such as Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in 2012.  相似文献   

An integrated macroelement formulation for the dynamic response of inelastic deformable rocking bodies     

Evangelos Avgenakis  Ioannis N. Psycharis 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(11):1072-1094

This paper presents a macroelement formulation for the prediction of the planar dynamic response of inelastic deformable rocking bodies. The formulation is based on a previous macroelement developed by the authors able to describe the cyclic response of inelastic rocking bodies, which takes into account the deformability both along the height of the member, as well as near the rocking end. Modifications of this formulation to account for other motion modes of rocking members during their dynamic response, namely, sliding and upthrow, as well as modifications to account for damping in a uniform manner during the whole motion, including impacts, are introduced. The dynamic response predicted by the macroelement for free-standing rigid and deformable rocking bodies is presented and compared with existing theoretical solutions, and the effect of deformability, damping, inelasticity, and friction on the response is discussed.  相似文献