Economic,institutional and technological uncertainties of emissions trading—a system dynamics modeling approach     

Irina Dolgopolova  Bo Hu  Armin Leopold  Stefan Pickl 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):663-676

System dynamics models are employed for analyzing the impact of different uncertainties on carbon emission trading–both on national and business levels. Economic, institutional and technological uncertainties significantly influence any country's benefits from emission permit trading. If a country participates in trading on the international market then the possible price range becomes the source of additional uncertainty. In the case of business investment decisions for implementing resource‐saving technology, our system dynamics model shows that the first‐mover investor will get significantly fewer advantages than his followers, which leads to delay in primary investment to the sector.  相似文献   

Influence of the Solar Global Magnetic-Field Structure Evolution on CMEs     

Irina A. Bilenko 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4209-4237

We consider the influence of the solar global magnetic-field structure (GMFS) cycle evolution on the occurrence rate and parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in Solar Cycles 23?–?24. It has been shown that, over solar cycles, CMEs are not distributed randomly, but they are regulated by evolutionary changes in the GMFS. It is proposed that the generation of magnetic Rossby waves in the solar tachocline results in the GMFS cycle changes. Each Rossby wave period favors a particular GMFS. It is proposed that the changes in wave periods result in GMFS reorganization and consequently in CME location, occurrence rate, and parameter changes. The CME rate and parameters depend on the sharpness of the GMFS changes, the strength of the global magnetic field, and the phase of a cycle.  相似文献   

Extreme wave climate changes in Central-South America     

Cristina Izaguirre  Fernando J. Méndez  Antonio Espejo  Inigo J. Losada  Borja G. Reguero 《Climatic change》2013,119(2):277-290

The spatial and temporal variability of extreme wave climate along the Central-South American continent is analyzed. The study evaluates changes in the intensity of extreme significant wave height (SWH) throughout the year over the 1980–2008 period, using a calibrated long-term wave reanalysis database forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. A non-stationary extreme value model, based on monthly maxima with a new approach for long-term trends, has been applied. Results show a common positive trend in the Pacific basin throughout all seasons and a significant decreasing trend pattern in the area of Surinam and north of Brazil, on the Atlantic border (up to ?1.5 cm/year in March–April–May). A higher increase of the extreme wave heights is found in the austral summer (December–January–February) at Tierra de Fuego and the Falkland Islands, reaching 6.5 cm/year (which means 1.82 m for the 28 years studied). Furthermore, the complete reanalysis period (1948–2008) is analyzed in order to compare results with the assimilation data period (1980–2008), resulting in some discrepancies, especially in the Atlantic basin.  相似文献   

Method of negative saturations for flow with variable number of phases in porous media: extension to three-phase multi-component case   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mikhail Panfilov  Irina Panfilova 《Computational Geosciences》2014,18(3-4):385-399

Various EOR methods lead to the appearance of specific macroscopic surfaces called interfaces of phase transition (IPT) such that the number of phases on two sides of an IPT is different, and fluids separated by an IPT are in non-equilibrium. Therefore, the flow equations are also different on two sides of an IPT and cannot be deduced from each other by a continuous degeneration, which imposes difficulties in numerical modelling. To describe such systems, we developed a new conceptual mathematical method based on the replacement of the real single-phase fluid by an imaginary multi-phase multi-component continuum having fictitious properties. As the result, the fluid over all zones becomes multi-phase and can be described by uniform multi-phase hydro- and thermodynamic equations, which allows applying the direct numerical simulation. The equivalence principle determines the physical properties of the fictitious multi-phase fluid, as well as the structure of the uniform multi-phase equations. It also proves that the saturation of each phase becomes an extended function negative or higher than unity in non-equilibrium zones, which becomes the efficient method of tracking the interfaces, the number of phases at any point, and their degree of disequilibrium. The method was developed in [1, 2] for the two-phase case. In the present paper, the new version of the method is developed for the three-phase case with gravity, diffusion, and capillarity. We have obtained the new equivalent uniform multi-phase equations which contain additional non-classical terms responsible for the diffusion and gravity across an IPT. The comparison with classical method is presented. The presentation is illustrated by several examples of simulation by means of the code developed by the research group; their concern: EOR by miscible methods and CO ₂ bubble raising in aquifer.  相似文献   

The latest geodynamics in Asia: Synthesis of data on volcanic evolution,lithosphere motion,and mantle velocities in the Baikal-Mongolian region     

Sergei Rasskazov  Irina Chuvashova 《地学前缘(英文版)》2017,8(4):733-752

From a synthesis of data on volcanic evolution,movement of the lithosphere,and mantle velocities in the Baikal-Mongolian region,we propose a comprehensive model for deep dynamics of Asia that assumes an important role of the Gobi,Baikal,and North Transbaikal transition-layer melting anomalies.This layer was distorted by lower-mantle fluxes at the beginning of the latest geodynamic stage(i.e.in the early late Cretaceous) due to avalanches of slab material that were stagnated beneath the closed fragments of the Solonker,Ural-Mongolian paleoceans and Mongol-Okhotsk Gulf of Paleo-Pacific.At the latest geodynamic stage,Asia was involved in east-southeast movement,and the Pacific plate moved in the opposite direction with subduction under Asia.The weakened upper mantle region of the Gobi melting anomaly provided a counterflow connected with rollback in the Japan Sea area.These dynamics resulted in the formation of the Honshu-Korea flexure of the Pacific slab.A similar weakened upper mantle region of the North Transbaikal melting anomaly was associated with the formation of the Hokkaido-Amur flexure of the Pacific slab,formed due to progressive pull-down of the slab material into the transition layer in the direction of the Pacific plate and Asia convergence.The early—middle Miocene structural reorganization of the mantle processes in Asia resulted in the development of upper mantle low-velocity domains associated with the development of rifts and orogens.We propose that extension at the Baikal Rift was caused by deviator flowing mantle material,initiated under the moving lithosphere in the Baikal melting anomaly.Contraction at the Hangay orogen was created by facilitation of the tectonic stress transfer from the Indo-Asian interaction zone due to the low-viscosity mantle in the Gobi melting anomaly.  相似文献