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611.
In environmental studies, numerical simulation models are valuable tools for testing hypothesis about systems functioning and to perform sensitivity studies under scenarios of land use or climate changes. The simulations depend upon parameters which are not always measurable quantities and must be calibrated against observations, using for instance inverse modelling. Due to the scarcity of these observations, it has been found that parameter sets allowing a good matching between simulated and measured quantities are often non-unique, leading to the problem of equifinality. This can lead to non-physical values, erroneous fluxes and misleading sensitivity analysis. Therefore, a simple but robust inverse method coined the Linking Test is presented to determine if the parameters are linked. Linked parameters are then sub-divided into classes according to their impact on water fluxes. The Linking Test establishes the causes of non-uniqueness of parameter sets and the feasibility of the inverse modelling.  相似文献   
612.
613.
Natural Hazards - Using the methodology developed by the Mexican National Disaster Prevention Centre (CENAPRED), we assessed the housing’s structural risk to earthquakes and floods of the...  相似文献   
614.
The fluvial–tidal transition (FTT) is a complex depositional zone, where fluvial flow is modified by tides as rivers approach a receiving marine basin. Variations in the relative importance of tidal versus fluvial processes lead to a distinctive distribution of sediments that accumulate on channel bars. The FTT generally consists of three broad zones: (1) a freshwater-tidal zone; (2) a tidally influenced freshwater to brackish-water transition; and (3) a zone of relatively sustained brackish-water conditions with stronger tides. A very common type of deposit through the fluvial–tidal transition, especially on the margins of migrating channels, is inclined heterolithic stratification (IHS). At present, a detailed account of changes in the character of IHS across the FTT of a paleo-channel system has not been reported, although a number of modern examples have been documented. To fill this gap, we quantitatively assess the sedimentology and ichnology of IHS from seven cored intervals in three geographic areas situated within the youngest paleovalley (“A” Valley) in the Lower Cretaceous McMurray Formation of Alberta, Canada. We compare the data to trends defined along the FTT in the present-day Fraser River in British Columbia, Canada to interpret paleo-depositional position in the ancient fluvial–tidal channels.Analysis determined that the mean mudstone thickness is 8.2 cm in the southern study area (SA). Mean thickness increases to 11 cm in the central study area (CA), and decreases again to 4.4 cm in the northern study area (NA). The proportion of mudstone is 31% in SA, 44% in CA, and 27% in NA. Thickness-weighted mean bioturbation intensity in sands varied from 0.29 in SA and CA, to 0.28 in NA. On the other hand, thickness-weighted mean bioturbation intensity (BI) in mudstone increases from 1.46 in SA, to 1.77 in CA, and is 1.94 in NA. The ichnological diversity also increased from south to north.Sedimentological results show similar trends to those of the Fraser River, enabling the identification of a freshwater to brackish-water transition zone with tidal influence. The interpreted position of the transition is underpinned by the bioturbation intensity and trace-fossil diversity trends, indicating periodic brackish-water conditions throughout SA in the McMurray Formation during low river flow conditions. Together, these data suggest that a broad FTT existed in the “A” Valley, with fluvial-dominated channels to the south that experienced seasonal brackish-water inundation during base flow, and channels experiencing increasing brackish-water influence lying further north towards a turbidity maximum zone. The FTT zone appears to have extended for several hundred kilometers from south to north.Based on the sedimentological and ichnological data, as well as estimations of lateral accretion rates, we refute the commonly applied Mississippi River depositional analogue for McMurray Formation channels. Rather, we show that while not a perfect fit, the tidally influenced Fraser River shows much greater agreement with the depositional character recorded in McMurray Formation IHS. Future work on the McMurray system should focus on characterizing tide-dominated deltaic and estuarine systems, such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra, and on forward-modeling the evolution of tide-dominated and tide-influenced river systems.  相似文献   
615.
The development of chironomid-based air temperature inference models in high latitude regions often relies on limited spatial coverage of meteorological data and/or on punctual measurements of water temperature at the time of sampling. The use of simple linear regression to relate air temperature and latitude was until recently the best method to characterize the air temperature gradient along a latitudinal gradient. However, recent studies have used high-resolution gridded climate data to develop new chironomid-based air temperature inference models. This innovative approach has, however, never been further analyzed to test its reliability. This study presents a method using ArcGIS® to extract air temperatures from a high-resolution global gridded climate data set (New et al. 2002) and to incorporate these new data in a variety of chironomid-based air temperature inference models to test their performance. Results suggest that this method is reliable and produces better estimates of air temperature and will be helpful in the development of further quantitative air temperature inference models in remote areas.  相似文献   
616.
遥感反演的前提需对模型的输入参数进行敏感性分析.该文选取冬小麦返青期、拔节期、孕穗期和抽穗期,考虑输入参数之间的相关性,以辐射传输模型(PROSAIL)为研究对象,对比分析了局部敏感性和全局敏感性方法在模型不确定性和LAI敏感性上的差异.结果表明,随着冬小麦的生长,模拟光谱与实测光谱吻合度提高,模型模拟的不确定性降低;与局部敏感性方法相比,全局敏感性方法的模型不确定性降低,模拟精度提高,冠层光谱对LAI的敏感性有明显变化,植被指数对LAI的敏感性则相对稳定;与NDVI相比,TGDVI对LAI更敏感.  相似文献   
617.
The temperature reconstruction obtained from chironomids preserved in the sediment of Egelsee, Switzerland, was partially flawed by the low percentages of fossil taxa represented in the Swiss calibration set (Larocque-Tobler et al. 2009a). Transfer functions (TFs) from other regions, which allow a good representation of the fossil taxa (>80%), could be applied to the fossil assemblages of Egelsee. First, the validity of using two (a Swedish and a North American (NA)) TFs was tested by comparing the chironomid-inferred temperatures with instrumental data. Since good relationships (r Pearson = 0.71 and 0.61, p = 0.001 for the NA and Swedish TFs, respectively) were obtained, these two models were used to reconstruct the Late Glacial and early Holocene periods at Egelsee. Reconstructions using both models showed clear cold periods during the Younger Dryas and the so-called 8,200 calibrated years BP event. However, the amplitude of changes during these periods was higher when the NA transfer function was used, probably due to the fact that 37% of the taxa in the core had temperature optima colder in the NA than in the Swedish and Swiss models. The results indicate that TFs from other regions can be applied when they are based on samples with good modern analogues, however, caution should be taken when the amplitude of temperature changes is considered.  相似文献   
618.
拉萨近半个世纪降水的变化特征   总被引:7,自引:1,他引:6  
杜军  建军  余燕群  杨斌  拉巴 《干旱区地理》2008,31(3):397-402
利用拉萨1952-2005年逐月降水量,≥0.1 mm、1.0 mm、5.0 mm和10.0 mm年降水日数,分析了近半个世纪拉萨年、季降水量及年降水日数的年际和年代际变化.结果发现:近半个世纪以来,拉萨年降水量表现为前30年呈不显著的减少趋势,减幅为17.8 mm/10 a;季降水量除夏季呈不显著的减少趋势外,其它各季均表现为增加趋势,以秋季增幅最大;≥0.1 mm、≥1.0 mm和≥5.0 mm年降水日数表现为不同程度的增加趋势.近25年≥10.0 mm的年降水日数呈极显著的增加趋势.20世纪50年代至80年代夏季降水量表现为逐年代减少趋势,秋季降水量则呈逐年代增加趋势,而冬季降水量为负距平.各等级年降水日数20世纪80年代偏少,90年代偏多.年降水量异常偏旱年主要出现在20世纪80年代,50年代和60年代的初期各出现一次异常偏涝年,70年代从未出现过异常年份.14年振荡周期可能是影响年降水量的主导周期.  相似文献   
619.
The preservation process of faunal remains from the Middle Paleolithic levels of Kůlna Cave was studied within a taphonomic and palaeodietary framework. A visual examination of bones and teeth showed that they display a wide variety of colors. Chemical analyses (C, N, Fe, Mn) and a combination of analytical techniques, such as Fourier transform infrared (FT‐IR), X‐ray diffraction (XRD), and electron spin resonance (ESR) spectrometry, were conducted on 13 fossil remains. The crystallinity indexes, IR‐SF, XRD‐CI, XRD‐L200, the IR area band (Amide I), and the ESR analyses showed that the bones were not burned at a temperature higher than 200°C. This implies that the bone remains were not used as fuel by Neanderthals at Kůlna Cave. Coloring in these bones is largely due to the presence of Mn and Fe. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   
620.
We present the luminosity function of 90-μm-selected galaxies from the European Large Area ISO Survey (ELAIS), extending to z =0.3. Their luminosities are in the range 10965−2 L /L<1012, i.e. non-ultraluminous. From our sample of 37 reliably detected galaxies in the ELAIS S1 region from the Efstathiou et al. S 90100 mJy data base, we have found optical, 15-μm or 1.4-GHz identifications for 24 (65 per cent). We have obtained 2dF and UK Schmidt FLAIR spectroscopy of 89 per cent of identifications to rigid multivariate flux limits. We construct a luminosity function assuming that (i) our spectroscopic subset is an unbiased sparse sample, and (ii) there are no galaxies that would not be represented in our spectroscopic sample at any redshift. We argue that we can be confident of both assumptions. We find that the luminosity function is well described by the local 100-μm luminosity function of Rowan-Robinson, Helou & Walker. Assuming this local normalization, we derive luminosity evolution of (1+ z )2.45±0.85 (95 per cent confidence). We argue that star formation dominates the bolometric luminosities of these galaxies, and we derive comoving star formation rates in broad agreement with the Flores et al. and Rowan-Robinson et al. mid-infrared-based estimates.  相似文献   
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