Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians     

Marcin Szwagrzyk  Dominik Kaim  Bronwyn Price  Agnieszka Wypych  Ewa Grabska  Jacek Kozak 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(1):227-240

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.  相似文献   

Large regional variability of recent climatic change driven sub-surface temperature changes as derived from temperature logs-central Canada example     

Majorowicz  Jacek  Šafanda  Jan 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2018,107(1):123-135

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The analysis of the warming/cooling patterns from inversion of 94 well temperature logs for the study area of Central Canada shows very high variability...  相似文献   

Analytic tools for investigating the structure of network reliability measures with regard to observation correlations     

W. Prószyński  M. Kwaśniak 《Journal of Geodesy》2018,92(3):321-332

A global measure of observation correlations in a network is proposed, together with the auxiliary indices related to non-diagonal elements of the correlation matrix. Based on the above global measure, a specific representation of the correlation matrix is presented, being the result of rigorously proven theorem formulated within the present research. According to the theorem, each positive definite correlation matrix can be expressed by a scale factor and a so-called internal weight matrix. Such a representation made it possible to investigate the structure of the basic reliability measures with regard to observation correlations. Numerical examples carried out for two test networks illustrate the structure of those measures that proved to be dependent on global correlation index. Also, the levels of global correlation are proposed. It is shown that one can readily find an approximate value of the global correlation index, and hence the correlation level, for the expected values of auxiliary indices being the only knowledge about a correlation matrix of interest. The paper is an extended continuation of the previous study of authors that was confined to the elementary case termed uniform correlation. The extension covers arbitrary correlation matrices and a structure of correlation effect.  相似文献   

How cold was it for Neanderthals moving to Central Europe during warm phases of the last glaciation?     

Grzegorz Skrzypek  Andrzej Wiśniewski  Pauline F. Grierson 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(5-6):481-487

Precise estimates of mean annual temperature (MAT) for when Neanderthals occupied Central Europe are critical for understanding the role that climatic and associated environmental factors played in Neanderthal migrations and in their ultimate extinction. Neanderthals were continuously present in the relatively warm regions of southern and Western Europe in the Pleistocene but only temporarily settled Central Europe (CE), presumably because of its colder and less hospitable climate. Here, we present a new approach for more spatially and temporally accurate estimation of palaeotemperatures based on the stable oxygen isotope composition of phosphates extracted from animal teeth found at sites linked directly to concurrent Neanderthal occupation. We provide evidence that Neanderthals migrated along the Odra Valley of CE during warmer periods throughout the Upper Pleistocene. The MATs during these migrations were about 6.8 °C for the warm phase of Oxygen Isotope Stage OIS 5a–d (prior to the OIS4 cold event) at ～115–74,000 yr BP and about 6.3 °C during the early OIS 3 warm phase ～59–41,000 yr BP. Our results show that temperatures during these phases peaked 2–4 °C above longer term estimates from ice cores and pollen records. We argue that our approach can provide valuable insights into evaluating the role of climate in human migration patterns in the Pleistocene.  相似文献   

U-Pb age and geochemistry of zircons from Salma eclogites (Kuru-Vaara deposit,Belomorian Belt)     

S. G. Skublov  Yu. A. Balashov  Yu. B. Marin  A. V. Berezin  A. E. Mel’nik  I. P. Paderin 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2010,432(2):791-798

  相似文献   

Finite element study of patterns of shear zones in granular bodies during plane strain compression   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jacek Tejchman  Jarek Górski 《Acta Geotechnica》2010,5(2):95-112

Numerical investigations of patterns of shear zones in granular bodies obtained during quasi-static plane strain compression tests were performed. The effect of a spatially correlated stochastic distribution of the initial void ratio and roughness of horizontal plates was analyzed. To describe a mechanical behavior of a cohesionless granular material during a monotonic deformation path in a plane strain compression test, a micro-polar hypoplastic constitutive model was used. FE calculations were carried out with both initially dense and initially loose cohesionless sand. A Latin hypercube method was applied to generate Gaussian truncated random fields of initial void ratio in a granular specimen. A weak correlation of the initial void ratio in both directions and its large standard deviation were assumed for all specimens. The horizontal boundaries were either ideally smooth or very rough. The FE results show similar patterns of shear zones as compared to experiments.  相似文献   

Regional climate changes as the factors of impact on the objects of construction and infrastructure     

E. I. Khlebnikova  I. A. Sall’  I. M. Shkol’nik 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2012,37(11-12):735-745

Considered are the changes in the climate impact on the objects of construction and infrastructure on the territory of Russia. The focus is on the changes in the characteristics of daily air temperature and precipitation expected by the middle of the 21st century, which are of high importance in terms of the building design. The assessment of expected changes is based on the results of ensemble computations using the MGO gobal climate model and the embedded regional model (MGO RCM) with the horizontal resolution of 25 km. Along with the ensemble-averaged estimates of changes in applied climate parameters, an uncertainty of estimates associated with the natural climate variability is analyzed using the data of numerical experiments. The attention is drawn to the most significant effects of climate changes which should be taken into account when developing the measures for adapting the construction sector in Russia.  相似文献   

Changes in climate extremes on the territory of Siberia by the middle of the 21st century: An ensemble forecast based on the MGO regional climate model     

I. M. Shkol’nik  V. P. Meleshko  S. V. Efimov  E. N. Stafeeva 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2012,37(2):71-84

The results are analyzed of the ensemble forecast of temperature and precipitation extremes on the territory of Siberia by the middle of the 21st century based on the regional climate model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) with the resolution of 25 km. The results of computation of oceanic components of CMIP3 coupled models are used as the boundary conditions on the sea surface. It is demonstrated that the high resolution of the regional model enables to simulate the observed climate variability in a more realistic way as compared to the low-resolution models. The analysis of the signal-to-noise ratio for future climate changes made it possible to determine to which degree its internal variability for various time scales (from interannual to interdecennial one) bounds the potential of the ensemble to compute the statistically significant anthropogenic changes of extremes. A comparative analysis of variations of extreme and average seasonal characteristics of the Siberian climate is carried out.  相似文献   

Kinematics of the outer pseudorings and the spiral structure of the Galaxy     

A. M. Mel’nik  P. Rautiainen 《Astronomy Letters》2009,35(9):609-624

The kinematics of the outer rings and pseudorings is determined by two processes: the resonance tuning and the gas outflow. The resonance kinematics is clearly observed in the pure rings while the kinematics of the outflow is manifested itself in the pseudorings. The direction of systematical motions in the pure rings depends on the position angle of a point with respect to the bar major axis and on the class of the outer ring. The direction of the radial and azimuthal components of the residual velocities of young stars in the Perseus, Carina, and Sagittarius regions can be explained by the presence of the outer pseudoring of class R ₁ R′₂ in the Galaxy. We present models which reproduce the values and directions of the residual velocities of OB-associations in the Perseus and Sagittarius regions and also model reproducing the directions of the residual velocities in the Perseus, Sagittarius, and Carina regions. The kinematics of the Sagittarius region accurately defines the solar position angle with respect to the bar elongation, θ _b = 45° ± 5°.  相似文献   

Tag retention and survival of fish tagged in controlled pond experiments     

Wiesław Wiśniewolski  Jerzy Nabiałek 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1993,55(2):143-152

Fish survival, tag retention and tag loss were evaluated in pond experiments and described by linear regression equations. Tagging of fish had no significant influence on their survival. However, loss of tags caused strong differences between actual fish survival and the survival rate e^–z estimated on recovered tags. Mathematical functions were derived to correct tag loss. Values of those functions depend upon the type of tag and time after tagging. The B-type of tagging, which approximated the Swedish Carlin method, appeared to be most effective. The rate of tag loss was independent of the fish species (common carp, tench) used in the experiments.  相似文献