Postponing emission reductions from 2020 to 2030 increases climate risks and long-term costs     

Michel G. J. den Elzen  Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jasper van Vliet 《Climatic change》2010,99(1-2):313-320

Substantially postponing the emission reductions, compared to the ranges indicated in IPCC’s recent assessment for 2020 as required for meeting the longterm 2°C target, increases the risk of exceeding this target. The costs of a delay strategy are lower in the short term, but leads to higher costs in the longer term. The analysis shows if the emission reductions are postponed to 2030 it is not likely that higher emissions from the earlier years can be fully compensated in future decades in a so-called ‘delayed action scenario’. A full compensation would require emission reduction rates in the coming decades that are much higher than those found in the scenario literature. Without compensation, the risk of exceeding the global temperature rise target of 2°C will increase. This confirms that it is not only the reduction commitments for 2050 that determine the risk of exceeding the 2°C target, but also the path between now and 2050. To meet this 2°C target, more ambitious 2020 reduction targets are needed for the developed and developing countries than those that have been pledged so far.  相似文献   

Dynamics of Small Earth-Approachers on Low-Eccentricity Orbits and Implications for Their Origins     

P. Michel  Ch. Froeschlé 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2000,78(1-4):93-112

The population of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) appears to be overabundant at sizes smaller than 50m, compared to a power-law extrapolation from kilometer-sized objects. Several of these small NEAs are also concentrated on low-eccentricity orbits, where a few larger Earth-crossers are observed, and are called Small Earth-Approachers (SEAs). Their source region as well as the dynamical mechanisms involved in their transport close to the Earth on low-eccentricity orbits have not yet been determined. In this paper, we present our numerical and statistical study of the production and dynamical evolution of these SEAs. We first show that three main sources of Earth-crossers which are, according to recent simulations, the 3/1 and ₆ resonances in the main belt, and the Mars-crosser population, are not able to produce as many bodies on SEAs-like orbits compared to other Earth-crossing orbits as has been inferred from observations. From these sources, SEAs-like orbits are reached through the interplay of two required mechanisms: secular resonances and planetary close approaches. However, the time spent on these orbits remains smaller than 1 Myr as confirmed by the study of the evolutions of 11 observed SEAs which also reveal the action of various mechanisms such as close approaches to planets and/or secular resonances. Therefore, our results present some mechanisms which can be responsible for their production but none that would preserve the lifetime of the SEAs sufficiently to enhance their abundance relative to other Earth-crossing orbits at the level observed. The overabundance of the SEA population, if real, remains a problem and could be related to the influence of collisional disruption and tidal splitting of Earth-crossers, as well as to observational biases that might account for a discrepancy between theory and observation.  相似文献   

Shore litter along sandy beaches of the Gulf of Oman     

Claereboudt MR 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,49(9-10):770-777

Beach debris abundance and weight were estimated from surveys on 11 beaches of the Gulf of Oman along the Omani coast. Debris were collected on two occasions from 100 m transects, sorted and categorized by origin and type. Overall contaminations ranged from 0.43 to 6.01 items m(-1) of beach front on different beaches with a mean value of 1.79+/-1.04 gm(-1) (95% C.I). In terms of weight, contamination levels ranged from 7.8 to 75.44 gm(-1) of beach front with a mean contamination of 27.02+/-14.48 gm(-1) (95% C.I). In terms of numbers of items, plastic debris ranked first on all beaches followed by either wood items or other organic materials such as cigarette butts. Industrial debris remained few on all beaches (<10%). Most debris had a local origin and, in terms of numbers, were associated with beach recreational activities whereas fishing debris represented the largest proportion of the debris in terms of weight. There were notable differences between beaches in the relative abundance of recreation-related and fishing-related debris.  相似文献   

Alpine and late-hercynian geochronological constraints in the Argentera Massif (Western Alps)     

Michel Corsini  Gilles Ruffet  Renaud Caby 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2004,97(1):3-15

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Geochemical influences on H40/1 bacteriophage inactivation in glaciofluvial sands     

Raymond?FlynnEmail author  Daniel?Hunkeler  Christine?Guerin  Christine?Burn  Pierre?Rossi  Michel?Aragno 《Environmental Geology》2004,45(4):504-517

Geochemical heterogeneities may cause spatial variations in virus inactivation rates resulting from interactions with minerals leading to differences in natural disinfection capacity within an aquifer. Column studies investigating the interaction of the bacteriophage H40/1 with natural sands sampled from the Kappelen test site (Kappelen), Bern, Switzerland indicated that inactivation rates are higher for adsorbed bacteriophages than for those suspended in groundwater. Moreover, breakthrough curves obtained from field-based tracer tests at Kappelen indicated that the adsorbed H40/1 is inactivated in-situ at comparable rates. Statistical analyses of mineralogical data failed to demonstrate significant spatial variations in aquifer composition either across the site or with depth. In contrast hydrochemical analyses of groundwater samples collected at Kappelen demonstrated that iron-reducing groundwater occurs below aerobic waters. Tracer breakthrough curves indicate that H40/1 survival is not affected by variable redox conditions. Investigation results suggest that spatial geochemical variability does not significantly affect H40/1s inactivation rate at Kappelen.  相似文献   

Variability of the gas transfer velocity of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in a macrotidal estuary (the Scheldt)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alberto?Vieira?BorgesEmail author  Jean-Pierre?Vanderborght  Laure-Sophie?Schiettecatte  Frédéric?Gazeau  Sarah?Ferrón-Smith  Bruno?Delille  Michel?Frankignoulle 《Estuaries and Coasts》2004,27(4):593-603

We report a large set of 295 interfacial carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux measurements obtained in the Scheldt estuary in November 2002 and April 2003, using the floating chamber method. From concomitant measurements of the air-water CO₂ gradient, we computed the gas transfer velocity of CO₂. The gas transfer velocity is well correlated to wind speed and a simple linear regression function gives the most consistent fit to the data. Based on water current measurements, we estimated the contribution of water current induced turbulence to the gas transfer velocity, using the conceptual relationship of O'Connor and Dobbins (1958). This allowed us to construct an empirical relationship to compute the gas transfer velocity of CO₂ that accounts for the contribution of wind and water current. Based on this relationship, the spatial and temporal variability of the gas transfer velocity in the Scheldt estuary was investigated. Water currents contribute significantly to the gas transfer velocity, but the spatial and temporal variability (from daily to seasonal scales) is mainly related to wind speed variability.  相似文献   

New insights into the 1999 eruption of Shishaldin volcano,Alaska, based on acoustic data     

Jacqueline?Caplan-AuerbachEmail author  Stephen?R.?McNutt 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(6):405-417

Data collected by a pressure sensor provide new insights into the 1999 eruption of Shishaldin volcano, Unimak Island, Alaska. On 19 April 1999, after 3 months of unrest and an extended period of low-level Strombolian activity, Shishaldin experienced a Subplinian eruption (ash plume to >16 km), followed by several episodes of strong Strombolian explosions. Acoustic data from the pressure sensor allow us to investigate the details of an eruption which was instrumentally well recorded, but with few visual observations. In the 12 h prior to the Subplinian phase, the pressure sensor detected a series of small, repeated pulses with a constant spectral peak at 2–3 Hz. The amplitude and occurrence rate of the pulses both grew such that the signal became a nearly continuous hum just before the Subplinian eruption. This humming signal may represent gas release from rising magma. The main Subplinian phase was heralded by (1) the abrupt end of the humming signal, (2) several pulses of low-frequency sound interpreted as ash bursts, and (3) a dramatic increase in seismic tremor amplitude. The change in acoustic signature at this time allows us to precisely time the start of the Subplinian eruption, previously approximated as the time of strongest tremor increase. The 50-min Subplinian phase actually contained several bursts of signal, each of which may represent a discrete volume of magma passing through the system. Following the Subplinian event, the pressure sensor recorded four discrete episodes of Strombolian gas explosions on 19–20 April and another on 22–23 April. Four of the five episodes were accompanied by strong seismic tremor; the fifth has not been previously recognized and was not associated with anomalous tremor amplitudes. In time series these events are similar to explosions recorded at other volcanoes but in general they are much larger, with maximum amplitudes of >65 Pa at 6.5 km from the vent, and they have low (0.7–1.5 Hz) peak frequencies. These large explosions occurred at rates of 3–20 per minute for 1–5 h in each episode. The explosions were accompanied by a small (<5 km above sea level) ash plume and only minor amounts of ejecta were produced. Thus, the explosion activity was dominated by gas release.  相似文献   

大别山的构造变形期次和超高压岩石折返的动力学   总被引：23，自引：2，他引：21  

林伟  王清晨  Michel Faure  孙岩  舒良树  Urs Scharer 《地质学报》2003,77(1):44-54,T003

从构造关系上看,大别山可分为南部,中部和北部3个构造系统,大别山南部构造系统为一套（原地）构造堆叠系统（相对的）,从上到下依次为：（1）未变质的震旦纪一早三叠世沉积盖层,它被造山后的侏罗－白垩纪砂－砾岩不整合覆盖;（2）弱变质的新元古代板岩;（3）高压变质岩系（宿松群）,这些变质岩系大多退变质为绿片岩相;（4）含柯石英榴辉岩超高压变质单元的异地系统;（5）未经历超高压变质作用的原地（相对的）片麻岩系。北西－南东向的拉伸线理在各个地质单元均有表现。从动力学上看,上盘指向NW的剪切运动被后期的褶皱所改变,大别山中部为（混合岩）热穿窿改造系统,系经历了超高压变质作用的地体叠加了混合岩化作用的产物,它与超高压变质地体的界限为一拆离断层,而正是这个拆离断层使超高压变质地体向地表折返并经历了角闪岩相的退变质作用。大别山北部为构造堆叠系统,早期的面理和南北向的挤压线理被轴面北倾的褶皱所改造,这种褶皱对应于大别山中部同折返期的韧性变形的隆升构造。同时建立了地球运力学模型并讨论了逆冲作用和正断层的作用。  相似文献   

New Families of Periodic Orbits in Hill's Problem of Three Bodies     

Michel Hénon 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2003,85(3):223-246

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Single-domain chemical, thermochemical and thermal remanences in a basaltic rock     

Ulrike Draeger  Michel Prévot  Thierry Poidras  Janna Riisager † 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):12-32

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