Sensitivity of multi-gas climate policy to emission metrics     

Steven J. Smith  Joseph Karas  Jae Edmonds  Jiyong Eom  Andrew Mizrahi 《Climatic change》2013,117(4):663-675

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) index is currently used to create CO₂-equivalent emission totals for multi-gas greenhouse targets. While many alternatives have been proposed, it is not possible to uniquely define a metric that captures the different impacts of emissions of substances with widely disparate atmospheric lifetimes, which leads to a wide range of possible index values. We examine the sensitivity of emissions and climate outcomes to the value of the index used to aggregate methane emissions using a technologically detailed integrated assessment model. The methane index is varied between 4 and 70, with a central value of 21, which is the 100-year GWP value currently used in policy contexts. We find that the sensitivity to index value is, at most, 10–18 % in terms of methane emissions but only 2–3 % in terms of the maximum total radiative forcing change, with larger regional emissions differences in some cases. The choice of index also affects estimates of the cost of meeting a given end of century forcing target, with total two-gas mitigation cost increasing by 7–9 % if the index is increased, and increasing in most scenarios from 4 to 23 % if the index is lowered, with a slight (1 %) decrease in total cost in one case. We find that much of the methane abatement occurs as the induced effect of CO₂ abatement rather than explicit abatement, which is one reason why climate outcomes are relatively insensitive to the index value. We also find that the near-term climate benefit of increasing the methane index is small.  相似文献   

Assessing climate change vulnerability with group multi-criteria decision making approaches   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yeonjoo Kim  Eun-Sung Chung 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):301-315

This study developed an approach to assess the vulnerability to climate change and variability using various group multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods and identified the sources of uncertainty in assessments. MCDM methods include the weighted sum method, one of the most common MCDM methods, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), fuzzy-based TOPSIS, TOPSIS in a group-decision environment, and TOPSIS combined with the voting methods (Borda count and Copeland’s methods). The approach was applied to a water-resource system in South Korea, and the assessment was performed at the province level by categorizing water resources into water supply and conservation, flood control and water-quality sectors according to their management objectives. Key indicators for each category were profiled with the Delphi surveys, a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback. The sectoral vulnerability scores were further aggregated into one composite score for water-resource vulnerability. Rankings among different MCDM methods varied in different degrees, but noticeable differences in the rankings from the fuzzy- and non-fuzzy-based methods suggested that the uncertainty with crisp data, rather widely used, should be acknowledged in vulnerability assessment. Also rankings from the voting-based methods did not differ much from those from non-voting-based (i.e., average-based) methods. Vulnerability rankings varied significantly among the different sectors of the water-resource systems, highlighting the need to assess the vulnerability of water-resource systems according to objectives, even though one composite index is often used for simplicity.  相似文献   

Origin of the counterrotating gas in NGC 1596     

Aeree Chung  Bärbel Koribalski  Martin Bureau  J. H. van Gorkom 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,370(3):1565-1572

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A comparison of the photospheric and interplanetary magnetic fields during the flight of Mariner IV     

John B. Winters  Jae R. Ballif  Douglas E. Jones 《Solar physics》1969,7(3):478-485

The polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field observed by the Mariner IV spacecraft is compared to the polarity of the photospheric magnetic field observed with the solar magnetograph at Mt. Wilson Observatory. Unlike the results obtained from observations during the flight of IMP-I, these polarities are not well correlated when the photospheric polarity is determined from data along a narrow latitudinal strip. It is suggested that the structure of the interplanetary field is often related to major features in the photospheric field that are observed over a broad range of solar latitudes.  相似文献   

Laboratory studies on seismic and electrical properties of the moon     

Dae H. Chung 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1972,4(3-4):356-372

Laboratory measurements of seismic wave velocities and electrical properties of Apollo lunar samples and similar material of terrestrial origin are discussed in this paper. Measurements of the electrical properties show that in the frequency range above a few hundred Hz the outer region of the Moon may be considered as a low loss dielectric. This observation supports a longstanding speculation that dry, powdered rocks in which the dielectric loss tangent is frequency-independent over a wide range of frequency are present in the uppermost lunar surface layers. The surface layers of the Moon are likely to have an extremely low electrical conductivity. Thus future electromagnetic probing of the Moon to a few hundred kilometer depth is possible in the few kHz frequency range. Based on ultrasonic experiments with pressure as a variable, we next present the elastic constants and equations of state of lunar materials and characteristic dispersion of seismic wave velocities of the Moon. We find thatP andS wave velocities increase sharply within the first 30 km depth and then level off gradually. Combining this observation with lunar seismic and geophone data, we believe that the first 30 km of the Moon may be interpreted as a scattering region. If H₂O exists on the Moon, H₂O may occur at some shallow depth beneath the outermost surface layer in solid ice interlocking cracks and pores and mineral grains. The rocks in this permafrost state have relatively low seismic velocity and highQ. If permafrost does exist, we would expect a wide range of electrical conductivity and dielectric constant. Future electromagnetic probing of the Moon should yield very usefull information on the physical state of the lunar interior; when this electrical information is combined with the seismic information, we should learn much more about the internal constitution and the state of the Moon than is known today.  相似文献   

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Keywan Riahi  Richard Moss  Jae Edmonds  Allison Thomson  Nebojsa Nakicenovic  Tom Kram  Frans Berkhout  Rob Swart  Anthony Janetos  Steven K. Rose  Nigel Arnell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):21-35

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.  相似文献   

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution     

J. Elizabeth Jackson  Michael G. Yost  Catherine Karr  Cole Fitzpatrick  Brian K. Lamb  Serena H. Chung  Jack Chen  Jeremy Avise  Roger A. Rosenblatt  Richard A. Fenske 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):159-186

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.  相似文献   

Satellite and ground observations for large-scale air pollution transport in the Yellow Sea region     

Hak-Sung Kim  Yong-Seung Chung 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2008,60(2):103-116

Large-scale air pollution transport (LSAPT) in the Yellow Sea region and their inflow onto the Korean Peninsula were observed through satellite images and ground measurements. LSAPT includes regional continental air-masses saturated with pollutants originating from China and subsequently landing on or passing through the Korean Peninsula. It is also possible to identify the distribution and transport patterns of LSAPT over the Yellow Sea. The ground concentrations for PM10, PM2.5 and CO measured at Cheongwon, located in the centre of south Korea, were compared with NOAA satellite images. Notably, the episodes observed of the LSAPT show a PM2.5 to PM10 ratio of 74% of the daily maximum concentrations. However, cases of duststorms were clearly distinguished by much higher PM10 concentrations and a ratio of 30% of PM2.5 to PM10 for daily maximum concentrations. For the episode on January 27, 2006, the inflow of a regionally polluted continental air-mass into the central and southwestern regions of the Korean Peninsula was observed sequentially at various ground observatories as well as by satellite. The north airflow dissipated the clouds over Mt. Halla on Jeju Island and further downwind, reducing air pollution and creating a von Kármán vortex.  相似文献   

Southern high latitude climate variability in the Late Cretaceous greenhouse world     

Stephen J. Gallagher  Barbara E. Wagstaff  Jennifer G. Baird  Malcolm W. Wallace  Chung Leong Li 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,60(3-4):351-364

A palynological study of oil exploration wells in the Gippsland Basin southeastern Australia has provided a record of southern high latitude climate variability for the last 12 million years of the Cretaceous greenhouse world. During this time, the vegetation was dominated by a cool to temperate flora of Podocarpaceae, Proteaceae and Nothofagidites spp. at a latitude of 60°S. Milankovitch forced cyclic alternations from drier to wetter climatic periods caused vegetation variability from 72 to 77 Ma. This climate change was probably related to the waxing and waning of ephemeral (100 ky) small ice sheets in Antarctica during times of insolation minima and maxima. Drying and cooling after 72 Ma culminated from 68 to 66 Ma, mirroring trends in global δ¹⁸O data. Quantitative palynofloral analyses have the potential to provide realistic proxies for small-scale climate variability in the predominantly ice-free Late Cretaceous.  相似文献   

The exploration of relationship between land subsidence and landscape transformation     

Chung  Chen-Kun 《Natural Hazards》2019,98(3):1051-1089

Natural Hazards - In the present study, a recently developed novel approach (Bender et al. in J Hydrol 514:123–130, 2014) has been further extended to investigate the changes in the joint...  相似文献