Natural hazards in Australia: droughts   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Anthony S. Kiem  Fiona Johnson  Seth Westra  Albert van Dijk  Jason P. Evans  Alison O’Donnell  Alexandra Rouillard  Cameron Barr  Jonathan Tyler  Mark Thyer  Doerte Jakob  Fitsum Woldemeskel  Bellie Sivakumar  Raj Mehrotra 《Climatic change》2016,139(1):37-54

  相似文献   

Natural hazards in Australia: floods     

Fiona Johnson  Christopher J. White  Albert van Dijk  Marie Ekstrom  Jason P. Evans  Dörte Jakob  Anthony S. Kiem  Michael Leonard  Alexandra Rouillard  Seth Westra 《Climatic change》2016,139(1):21-35

  相似文献   

The role of debris supply conditions in predicting debris flow activity     

Michael J. Bovis  Matthias Jakob 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1999,24(11):1039-1054

Debris flow frequency and magnitude were determined for 33 basins in southwest British Columbia. Basins were first classified as either weathering-limited or transport-limited using a discriminant function based on debris-contributing area, an area-weighted terrain stability number, and drainage density. Multiple regression was used to predict magnitude, peak discharge, frequency and activity (frequency times magnitude) within each group of basins. Model performance was improved by stratifying the total sample of debris flow basins into weathering-and transport-limited groups. Explained variance increased by an average of 15 per cent in the transport-limited sample, indicating that sediment supply conditions in the more active basins are fundamental in predicting debris flow activity. An independent test of the regression models with 11 basins yielded generally good results for debris flow magnitude and peak discharge. Prediction of debris flow frequency proved problematical in weathering-limited basins. The methods developed here provide estimates of debris flow attributes in basins for which few data on past events are available. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Climate change effects on landslides along the southwest coast of British Columbia   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Matthias Jakob  Steven Lambert   《Geomorphology》2009,107(3-4):275-284

Antecedent rainfall and short-term intense rainfall both contribute to the temporal occurrence of landslides in British Columbia. These two quantities can be extracted from the precipitation regimes simulated by climate models. This makes such models an attractive tool for use in the investigation of the effect of global warming on landslide frequencies.In order to provide some measure of the reliability of models used to address the landslide question, the present-day simulation of the antecedent precipitation and short-term rainfall using the daily data from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis model (CGCM) is compared to observations along the south coast of British Columbia. This evaluation showed that the model was reasonably successful in simulating statistics of the antecedent rainfall but was less successful in simulating the short-term rainfall.The monthly mean precipitation data from an ensemble of 19 of the world's global climate models were available to study potential changes in landslide frequencies with global warming. Most of the models were used to produce simulations with three scenarios with different levels of prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. The changes in the antecedent precipitation were computed from the resulting monthly and seasonal means. In order to deal with models' suspected difficulties in simulating the short-term precipitation and lack of daily data, a statistical procedure was used to relate the short-term precipitation to the monthly means.The qualitative model results agree reasonably well, and when averaged over all models and the three scenarios, the change in the antecedent precipitation is predicted to be about 10% and the change in the short-term precipitation about 6%. Because the antecedent precipitation and the short-term precipitation contribute to the occurrence of landslides, the results of this study support the prediction of increased landslide frequency along the British Columbia south coast during the twenty-first century.  相似文献   

Parental magma of the Skaergaard intrusion: constraints from melt inclusions in primitive troctolite blocks and FG-1 dykes     

Jakob K. Jakobsen  Christian Tegner  C. Kent Brooks  Adam J. R. Kent  Charles E. Lesher  Troels F. D. Nielsen  Michael Wiedenbeck 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,159(1):61-79

Troctolite blocks with compositions akin to the Hidden Zone are exposed in a tholeiitic dyke cutting across the Skaergaard intrusion, East Greenland. Plagioclase in these blocks contains finely crystallised melt inclusions that we have homogenised to constrain the parental magma to 47.4–49.0 wt.% SiO₂, 13.4–14.9 wt.% Al₂O₃ and 10.7–14.1 wt.% FeO^T. These compositions are lower in FeO^T and higher in SiO₂ than previous estimates and have distinct La/Sm_N and Dy/Yb_N ratios that link them to the lowermost volcanic succession (Milne Land Formation) of the regional East Greenland flood basalt province. New major- and trace element compositions for the FG-1 dyke swarm, previously taken to represent Skaergaard magmas, overlap with the entire range of the regional flood basalt succession and do not form a coherent suite of Skaergaard like melts. These dykes are therefore re-interpreted as feeder dykes throughout the main phase of flood basalt volcanism.  相似文献   

Geodemographics as a tool for targeting neighbourhoods in public health campaigns   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jakob Petersen  Maurizio Gibin  Paul Longley  Pablo Mateos  Philip Atkinson  David Ashby 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2011,13(2):173-192

Geodemographics offers the prospects of integrating, modelling and mapping health care needs and other health indicators that are useful for targeting neighbourhoods in public health campaigns. Yet reports about this application domain has to date been sporadic. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential of a bespoke geodemographic system for neighbourhood targeting in an inner city public health authority, Southwark Primary Care Trust, London. This system, the London Output Area Classification (LOAC), is compared to six other geodemographic systems from both governmental and commercial sources. The paper proposes two new indicators for assessing the performance of geodemographic systems for neighbourhood targeting based on local hospital demand data. The paper also analyses and discusses the utility of age- and sex standardisation of geodemographic profiles of health care demand.  相似文献   

Using the anchoring device of a comet lander to determine surface mechanical properties   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Norbert I. Kömle  Andrew J. Ball  Günter Kargl  Jakob Stöcker  Markus Thiel  Harjinder S. Jolly  Masarapauya Dziruni  John C. Zarnecki 《Planetary and Space Science》1997,45(12):1515-1538

Owing to the low surface gravity of the Rosetta target comet 46P/Wirtanen, a means of anchoring the Rosetta Lander to the cometary surface will be necessary. This task can be accomplished by firing an anchor into the cometary soil immediately after touchdown to prevent a rebound of the spacecraft from the surface or subsequent ejection by other forces, and to allow for mechanical activities (drilling, etc.) at the landing site.

The rationale for anchoring is examined, based on estimates of the main forces likely to act on the spacecraft after landing. We report on the development of an anchoring device using a pyrotechnic gas generator as a power source and an instrumented anchor.

In addition to the anchoring function, which is the primary purpose of this system, the integration of acceleration and temperature sensors into the tip offers the possibility to determine some important material properties of the cometary surface layer. The accelerometer is designed to measure the deceleration history of the projectile and is thus expected to give information on how the material properties (in particular strength) change within the penetrated layer(s), while the temperature sensor will measure temperature variations at the depth at which the anchor finally comes to rest. As the mechanical properties of the material are not known, it is difficult to predict the final depth of the anchor with any great certainty, but it may well be greater than that reached by any other of the lander's instruments.

The instrumented anchor will be part of the MUPUS experiment, selected to form part of the Rosetta Lander payload. We report on results of laboratory simulations of anchor penetration performed at the Institut für Weltraumforschung, Graz, and compare these with models of projectile penetration. The value of the results expected from the penetrometry experiment in the context of an improved understanding of cometary processes is discussed.  相似文献   

Oldrich Hungr (1947–2017)     

Doug VanDine  Scott McDougall  Matthias Jakob  Erik Eberhardt 《Landslides》2018,15(2):385-386

  相似文献   

Cross-sectoral integration in regional adaptation to climate change via participatory scenario development     

Jakob Wachsmuth 《Climatic change》2015,132(3):387-400

  相似文献   

The landslide response of alpine basins to post-Little Ice Age glacial thinning and retreat in southwestern British Columbia     

Kris Holm  Michael Bovis  Matthias Jakob   《Geomorphology》2004,57(3-4):201-216

The role of post-Little Ice Age (LIA) Neoglacial retreat on landslide activity is investigated in 19 alpine basins along the upper Lillooet River Valley, British Columbia. We examine how Neoglacial scouring and glacial recession have modified hillslope form and slope stability, and construct a decision-making flowchart to identify landslide hazards associated with glacial retreat. This work is based on field mapping, GIS analysis, statistical associations between landslides and terrain attributes, and a comparison between Neoglaciated and non-Neoglaciated terrain within each basin.The bedrock landslide response to glacial retreat varies appreciably according to lithology and the extent of glacial scour below the LIA trimline. Valleys carved in weak Quaternary volcanics show significant erosional oversteepening and contain deep-seated slope movement features, active rock fall, rock slides, and rock avalanches near glacial trimlines. Basins in stronger granitic rock rarely show increased bedrock instability resulting from post-LIA retreat, except for shallow-seated rock slides along some trimlines and failures on previously unstable slopes. In surficial materials, landslides associated with post-LIA retreat originate in till or colluvium, as debris slides or debris avalanches, and are concentrated along lateral moraines or glacial trimlines.Significant spatial association was also observed between recent catastrophic failures, gravitational slope deformation, and slopes that were oversteepened then debuttressed by glacial erosion. Eight out of nine catastrophic rock slope failures occurred just above glacial trimlines and all occurred in areas with a previous history of deep-seated gravitational slope movement, implying that this type of deformation is a precursor to catastrophic detachment.  相似文献