Statistical forecast of the marine surge     

Quintana  Gonzalo Iñaki  Tandeo  Pierre  Drumetz  Lucas  Leballeur  Laurent  Pavec  Marc 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(3):2905-2917

Natural Hazards - This paper studies different machine learning methods for solving the regression problem of estimating the marine surge value given meteorological data. The marine surge is...  相似文献   

Stormwater harvesting in ephemeral streams: how to bypass clogging and unsaturated layers     

Henao Casas  José D.  Kalwa  Fritz  Walther  Marc  Rausch  Randolf 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(5):1813-1830

To cope with water scarcity in drylands, stormwater is often collected in surface basins and subsequently stored in shallow aquifers via infiltration. These stormwater harvesting systems are often accompanied by high evaporation rates and hygiene problems. This is commonly a consequence of low infiltration rates, which are caused by clogging layers that form on top of the soil profile and the presence of a thick vadose zone. The present study aims to develop a conceptual solution to increase groundwater recharge rates in stormwater harvesting systems. The efficiency of vadose-zone wells and infiltration trenches is tested using analytical equations, numerical models, and sensitivity analyses. Dams built in the channel of ephemeral streams (wadis) are selected as a study case to construct the numerical simulations. The modelling demonstrated that vadose-zone wells and infiltration trenches contribute to effective bypassing of the clogging layer. By implementing these solutions, recharge begins 2250–8100% faster than via infiltration from the bed surface of the wadi reservoir. The sensitivity analysis showed that the recharge rates are especially responsive to well length and trench depth. In terms of recharge quantity, the well had the best performance; it can infiltrate up to 1642% more water than the reservoir, and between 336 and 825% more than the trench. Moreover, the well can yield the highest cumulative recharge per dollar and high recharge rates when there are limitations to the available area. The methods investigated here significantly increased recharge rates, providing practical solutions to enhance aquifer water storage in drylands.

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Analysis of boundary friction effect on the homogenization process of compacted bentonite/claystone mixture with technological voids upon hydration     

Zeng  Zhixiong  Cui  Yu-Jun  Conil  Nathalie  Talandier  Jean 《Acta Geotechnica》2021,16(2):525-533

Pre-compacted MX80 bentonite/Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone mixture has been proposed to backfill and seal the underground galleries for radioactive waste disposal in France. While emplacing these pre-compacted blocks, technological voids are created between the blocks and the host rock and among the blocks themselves. It is expected that homogenization process will take place over time for the structure constructed with pre-compacted blocks upon hydration. This study investigated the boundary friction effect on such a process. Results showed that after the filling of technological voids, the soil far from the technological voids would swell further, while those near the voids would be compressed under the welling pressure generated by the soil behind, resulting in an increase in homogeneity in terms of dry density distribution. However, this homogenization process would stop after a certain time. Further examination showed that the homogenization process ended when the maximum boundary friction force became equal to or higher than the vector sum of swelling forces in the radial direction. Based on the force equilibrium and the mass conservation, the final dry density distribution was estimated. Comparison between the estimation and the measurement showed a good agreement, indicating the relevance of the identified mechanism related to boundary friction.

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Geometry and kinematics of brittle deformation in the Central Cameroon Shear Zone (Kékem area): Implication for gold exploration within the Central Africa Fold Belt in Cameroon     

De Pesquidoux I Tchaptchet Tchato  Jacqueline Tchakounte  Aurélie Ngamy Kamwa  Jean Pierre Tchouankoue  Soumyajit Mukherjee 《China Geology》2021,4(2):245-255

The Central Africa Fold Belt (CAFB) is a collision belt endowed with gold deposits in Eastern Cameroon area mined for about 50 years. However, favorable areas for gold exploration are poorly known. This paper presents (1) the kinematics of the brittle deformation in the Kékem area in the SW portion of the Central Cameroon Shear Zone and (2) constraints gold mineralization events with respect to the collisional evolution of the CAFB. The authors interpret that the conjugate ENE to E and NNW to NW trending lineament corresponds to the synthetic (R) and the antithetic (R’) shears, which accompanied the dextral slip along the NE to ENE striking shear. The latter coincides with the last 570–552 Ma D₃ dextral simple shear-dominated transpression, which is parallel to the Bétaré Oya shear zone hosting gold deposits. Gold mineralizations, which mainly occurred during the last dextral shearing, are disseminated within quartz veins associated to Riedel’s previous structures reactivated due to late collisional activities of the CAFB as brittle deformation. Gold mineralizations occurred mainly during the 570–552 Ma D₃ event. The reactivation, which might be due to dextral simple shear during mylonitzation, plausibly remobilized the early gold deposits hosted in syn-compressional rocks and/or possibly focused deep-sourced fluid mixed with those released by dehydration. Therefore, the Central Cameroon Shear Zone where Kékem is located, and which shows similar petrographical and structural features to those controling Batouri gold district, is a target area for gold exploration in Cameroon.  相似文献   

Paleogene evolution and demise of the proto‐Paratethys Sea in Central Asia (Tarim and Tajik basins): Role of intensified tectonic activity at ca. 41 Ma     

Mustafa Y. Kaya  Guillaume Dupont‐Nivet  Jean‐Noël Proust  Pierrick Roperch  Laurie Bougeois  Niels Meijer  Joost Frieling  Chiara Fioroni  Sevin zkan Alt&#x;ner  Ezgi Vardar  Natasha Barbolini  Marius Stoica  Jovid Aminov  Mehmut Mamtimin  Guo Zhaojie 《Basin Research》2019,31(3):461-486

The proto‐Paratethys Sea covered a vast area extending from the Mediterranean Tethys to the Tarim Basin in western China during Cretaceous and early Paleogene. Climate modelling and proxy studies suggest that Asian aridification has been governed by westerly moisture modulated by fluctuations of the proto‐Paratethys Sea. Transgressive and regressive episodes of the proto‐Paratethys Sea have been previously recognized but their timing, extent and depositional environments remain poorly constrained. This hampers understanding of their driving mechanisms (tectonic and/or eustatic) and their contribution to Asian aridification. Here, we present a new chronostratigraphic framework based on biostratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy as well as a detailed palaeoenvironmental analysis for the Paleogene proto‐Paratethys Sea incursions in the Tajik and Tarim basins. This enables us to identify the major drivers of marine fluctuations and their potential consequences on Asian aridification. A major regional restriction event, marked by the exceptionally thick (≤ 400 m) shelf evaporites is assigned a Danian‐Selandian age (ca. 63–59 Ma) in the Aertashi Formation. This is followed by the largest recorded proto‐Paratethys Sea incursion with a transgression estimated as early Thanetian (ca. 59–57 Ma) and a regression within the Ypresian (ca. 53–52 Ma), both within the Qimugen Formation. The transgression of the next incursion in the Kalatar and Wulagen formations is now constrained as early Lutetian (ca. 47–46 Ma), whereas its regression in the Bashibulake Formation is constrained as late Lutetian (ca. 41 Ma) and is associated with a drastic increase in both tectonic subsidence and basin infilling. The age of the final and least pronounced sea incursion restricted to the westernmost margin of the Tarim Basin is assigned as Bartonian–Priabonian (ca. 39.7–36.7 Ma). We interpret the long‐term westward retreat of the proto‐Paratethys Sea starting at ca. 41 Ma to be associated with far‐field tectonic effects of the Indo‐Asia collision and Pamir/Tibetan plateau uplift. Short‐term eustatic sea level transgressions are superimposed on this long‐term regression and seem coeval with the transgression events in the other northern Peri‐Tethyan sedimentary provinces for the 1st and 2nd sea incursions. However, the 3rd sea incursion is interpreted as related to tectonism. The transgressive and regressive intervals of the proto‐Paratethys Sea correlate well with the reported humid and arid phases, respectively in the Qaidam and Xining basins, thus demonstrating the role of the proto‐Paratethys Sea as an important moisture source for the Asian interior and its regression as a contributor to Asian aridification.  相似文献   

Northwest Africa 11024—A heated and dehydrated unique carbonaceous (CM) chondrite     

Samuel Ebert  Addi Bischoff  Dennis Harries  Sarah Lentfort  Jean‐Alix Barrat  Andreas Pack  Jrme Gattacceca  Robbin Visser  Peter Schmid‐Beurmann  Stephan Kimpel 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(2):328-356

Based on the high abundance of fine‐grained material and its dark appearance, NWA 11024 was recognized as a CM chondrite, which is also confirmed by oxygen isotope measurements. But contrary to known CM chondrites, the typical phases indicating aqueous alteration (e.g., phyllosilicates, carbonates) are missing. Using multiple analytical techniques, this study reveals the differences and similarities to known CM chondrites and will discuss the possibility that NWA 11024 is the first type 3 CM chondrite. During the investigation, two texturally apparent tochilinite–cronstedtite intergrowths were identified within two thin sections. However, the former phyllosilicates were recrystallized to Fe‐rich olivine during a heating event without changing the textural appearance. A peak temperature of 400–600 °C is estimated, which is not high enough to destroy or recrystallize calcite grains. Thus, calcites were never constituents of the mineral paragenesis. Another remarkable feature of NWA 11024 is the occurrence of unknown clot‐like inclusions (UCLIs) within fine‐grained rims, which are unique in this clarity. Their density and S concentration are significantly higher than of the surrounding fine‐grained rim and UCLIs can be seen as primary objects that were not formed by secondary alteration processes inside the rims. Similarities to chondritic and cometary interplanetary dust particles suggest an ice‐rich first‐generation planetesimal for their origin. In the earliest evolution, NWA 11024 experienced the lowest degree of aqueous alteration of all known CM chondrites and subsequently, a heating event dehydrated the sample. We suggest to classify the meteorite NWA 11024 as the first type 3 CM chondrite similar to the classification of CV3 chondrites (like Allende) that could also have lost their matrix phyllosilicates by thermal dehydration.  相似文献   

Petrogenesis of lunar impact melt rock meteorite Oued Awlitis 001     

Axel Wittmann  Randy L. Korotev  Bradley L. Jolliff  Kunihiko Nishiizumi  A. J. Timothy Jull  Marc W. Caffee  Michael Zanetti  Anthony J. Irving 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(10):2167-2188

Oued Awlitis 001 is a highly feldspathic, moderately equilibrated, clast‐rich, poikilitic impact melt rock lunar meteorite that was recovered in 2014. Its poikilitic texture formed due to moderately slow cooling, which judging from textures of rocks in melt sheets of terrestrial impact structures, is observed in impact melt volumes at least 100 m thick. Such coherent impact melt volumes occur in lunar craters larger than ~50 km in diameter. The composition of Oued Awlitis 001 points toward a crustal origin distant from incompatible‐element‐rich regions. Comparison of the bulk composition of Oued Awlitis 001 with Lunar Prospector 5° γ‐ray spectrometer data indicates a limited region of matches on the lunar farside. After its initial formation in an impact crater larger than ~50 km in diameter, Oued Awlitis 001 was excavated from a depth greater than ~50 m. The cosmogenic nuclide inventory of Oued Awlitis 001 records ejection from the Moon 0.3 Ma ago from a depth of at least 4 m and little mass loss due to ablation during its passage through Earth's atmosphere. The terrestrial residence time must have been very short, probably less than a few hundred years; its exact determination was precluded by a high concentration of solar cosmic ray‐produced ¹⁴C. If the impact that excavated Oued Awlitis 001 also launched it, this event likely produced an impact crater >10 km in diameter. Using petrologic constraints and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera and Diviner data, we test Giordano Bruno and Pierazzo as possible launch craters for Oued Awlitis 001.  相似文献   

Bioeconomic model for a three-zone Marine Protected Area: a case study of Medes Islands (northwest Mediterranean)     

Merino  Gorka; Maynou  Francesc; Boncoeur  Jean 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2009,66(1):147-154

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Specifying a joint space- and time-lag using a bivariate Poisson distribution     

Daniel A. Griffith  Jean H. P. Paelinck 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2009,11(1):23-36

Separate space- or time-lags have been considered regularly in data analyses; as space–time models are more recently being studied extensively in data analytic fashion, joint estimation of both lags has to be considered explicitly. This paper addresses this issue, taking into special consideration parametric parsimony together with specification richness; use of the bivariate Poisson frequency distribution is advocated and applied to an empirical case. The relation of this approach to random effects specifications is investigated. Data for Belgian regional products constitute the empirical case study.

Daniel A. GriffithEmail:

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Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Marc H. Taylor  Jorge Tam  Vernica Blaskovic  Pepe Espinoza  R. Michael Balln  Claudia Wosnitza-Mendo  Juan Argüelles  Erich Díaz  Sara Purca  Noemi Ochoa  Patricia Ayn  Elisa Goya  Dimitri Gutirrez  Luis Quipuzcoa  Matthias Wolff 《Progress in Oceanography》2008,79(2-4):366

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.  相似文献