Estimates of surface drifter trajectories in the equatorial Atlantic: a multi-model ensemble approach   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Robert Bruce Scott  Nicolas Ferry  Marie Drévillon  Charlie N. Barron  Nicolas C. Jourdain  Jean-Michel Lellouche  Edward Joseph Metzger  Marie-Hélène Rio  Ole Martin Smedstad 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(7):1091-1109

We compared the estimates of surface drifter trajectories from 1 to 7?days in the equatorial Atlantic over an 18-month period with five eddying ocean general circulation model (OGCM) reanalyses and one observational product. The cumulative distribution of trajectory error was estimated using over 7,000?days of drifter trajectories. The observational product had smaller errors than any of the individual OGCM reanalyses. Three strategies for improving trajectory estimates using the ensemble of five operational ocean analysis and forecasting products were explored: two methods using a multi-model ensemble estimate and also spatial low-pass filtering. The results were insensitive to the method used to create the ensemble estimates, and by most measures, the results were better than the observational product. Comparison of relative skill of the various OGCM reanalyses suggested promising avenues for exploration for further improvements: forcing with higher frequency wind stress and quality control of input data. One of the lowest horizontal resolution OGCMs, with 1/4° longitude horizontal resolution, made the best trajectory estimates. The individual OGCMs were dominated by errors at spatial scales smaller than about 100 to 200?km, i.e., less than the local deformation radius. But buried in those errors were valuable signals that could be retrieved by combining all the OGCM velocity fields to produce a multi-model ensemble-based estimate. This estimate had skill down to spatial scales about 75?km. Results from this study are consistent with previous work showing that ensemble-mean forecast skill is superior to individual forecasts.  相似文献   

Seasonal and inter-annual variability in alkalinity in Liverpool Bay (53.5° N, 3.5° W) and in major river inputs to the North Sea     

David J. Hydes  Susan E. Hartman 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(2):321-333

A critical factor controlling changes in the acidity of coastal waters is the alkalinity of the water. Concentrations of alkalinity are determined by supply from rivers and by in situ processes such as biological production and denitrification. A 2-year study based on 15 cruises in Liverpool Bay followed the seasonal cycles of changing concentrations of total alkalinity (TA) and total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in relation to changes caused by the annual cycle of biological production during the mixing of river water into the Bay. Consistent annual cycles in concentrations of nutrients, TA and DIC were observed in both years. At a salinity of 31.5, the locus of primary production during the spring bloom, concentrations of NO _x decreased by 25 ± 4 μmol kg⁻¹ and DIC by 106 ± 16 μmol kg⁻¹. Observed changes in TA were consistent with the uptake of protons during primary biological production. Concentrations of TA increased by 33 ± 8 μmol kg⁻¹ (2009) and 33 ± 15 μmol kg⁻¹ (2010). The impact of changes in organic matter on the measured TA appears likely to be small in this area. Thomas et al. (2009) suggested that denitrification may enhance the CO₂ uptake of the North Sea by 25%, in contrast we find that although denitrification is a significant process in itself, it does not increase concentrations of TA relative to those of DIC and so does not increase buffer capacity and potential uptake of CO₂ into shelf seawaters. For Liverpool Bay historical data suggest that higher concentrations of TA during periods of low flow are likely to contribute in part to the observed change in TA between winter and summer but the appropriate pattern cannot be identified in recent low-frequency river data. On a wider scale, data for the rivers Mersey, Rhine, Elbe and Weser show that patterns of seasonal change in concentrations of TA in river inputs differ between river systems.  相似文献   

Interval‐Based Diagnosis of Biological Systems – a Powerful Tool for Highly Uncertain Anaerobic Digestion Processes     

Víctor Alcaraz‐González  Rubén Horacio López‐Bañuelos  Jean‐Philippe Steyer  Hugo Oscar Méndez‐Acosta  Víctor González‐Álvarez  Carlos Pelayo‐Ortiz 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2012,40(9):941-949

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is a highly nonlinear time‐varying process commonly used for biological wastewater treatment, which is subject to large disturbances of both influent concentrations, and flow rates that may lead the process to a breakdown. In order to compensate the effect of these disturbances, the dynamics of the main state variables – including biomass – must be closely monitored and used to improve the process performance. However, AD processes still suffer from a lack of reliable and cheap sensors of key process variables to insure the right process operation. This has led to the development of estimation schemes, which infer the information of such key variables from the available measurements. Nevertheless, reliable measurements are not always possible to get because these readings may be corrupted by noise or erroneous due to sensor failures and as a consequence, they may lead to deteriorated control efforts and the eventual crash of the AD process. In this article, we propose an integrated system for the detection, isolation, and analysis of faults in AD processes by using interval observers (IO). The proposed approach was experimentally implemented on a 1‐m³ pilot scale anaerobic digester. Based on the comparison between the measured outputs and their corresponding estimates, results show that this approach was able to detect sensor failures as well as faults in the basic hypotheses made during the design step.  相似文献   

Uplift and strength evolution of passive margins inferred from 2-D conductive modelling     

Marie Leroy  Frédéric Gueydan  Olivier Dauteuil 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,172(1):464-476

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Mussel farming can be used as a mitigation tool--a reply     

Petersen JK  Timmermann K  Carlsson M  Holmer M  Maar M  Lindahl O 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(2):452-4; author reply 455-6

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Chronic herbicide exposures affect the sensitivity and community structure of tropical benthic microalgae     

Magnusson M  Heimann K  Ridd M  Negri AP 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,65(4-9):363-372

The effects of prolonged exposure to low concentrations of herbicides on tropical periphyton (biofilm) communities are largely unknown. Tropical estuarine biofilms established in microcosms were therefore exposed to diuron (photosystem-II-inhibitor) at 2-16μg L(-1) for 4 weeks. The biofilms, consisting of diatoms, filamentous brown algae and cyanobacteria, developed a tolerance to diuron during this period as measured by Phyto-PAM fluorometry. Microscopy and pigment analysis revealed that this decrease in sensitivity was accompanied by a shift in species composition towards communities dominated by diatoms. The combination of techniques enabled the first identification of pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) in tropical estuarine periphyton in response to chronic herbicide exposures. Community composition changed compared to controls at environmentally relevant concentrations of 1.6μg L(-1), while development of PICT was evident at 6.5μg L(-1) diuron, with no recovery (over 2 weeks) in uncontaminated water, indicating chronic pollution induced shifts in community structure.  相似文献   

Non-linear electrodynamics and the variation of the fine structure constant     

Jean Paul Mbelek  Herman J. Mosquera Cuesta 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,389(1):199-204

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Magnetic classification of stony meteorites: 2. Non‐ordinary chondrites     

Pierre ROCHETTE  Jérôme GATTACCECA  Lydie BONAL  Michèle BOUROT‐DENISE  Vincent CHEVRIER  Jean‐Pierre CLERC  Guy CONSOLMAGNO  Luigi FOLCO  Matthieu GOUNELLE  Tomas KOHOUT  Lauri PESONEN  Eric QUIRICO  Leonardo SAGNOTTI  Anna SKRIPNIK 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2008,43(5):959-980

Abstract— A database of magnetic susceptibility (χ) measurements on different non‐ordinary chondrites (C, E, R, and ungrouped) populations is presented and compared to our previous similar work on ordinary chondrites. It provides an exhaustive study of the amount of iron‐nickel magnetic phases (essentially metal and magnetite) in these meteorites. In contrast with all the other classes, CM and CV show a wide range of magnetic mineral content, with a two orders of magnitude variation of χ. Whether this is due to primary parent body differences, metamorphism or alteration, remains unclear. C3–4 and C2 yield similar χ values to the ones shown by CK and CM, respectively. By order of increasing χ, the classes with well‐grouped χ are: R << CO < CK ≈ CI < Kak < CR < E ≈ CH < CB. Based on magnetism, EH and EL classes have indistinguishable metal content. Outliers that we suggest may need to have their classifications reconsidered are Acfer 202 (CO), Elephant Moraine (EET) 96026 (C4–5), Meteorite Hills (MET) 01149, and Northwest Africa (NWA) 521 (CK), Asuka (A)‐88198, LaPaz Icefield (LAP) 031156, and Sahara 98248 (R). χ values can also be used to define affinities of ungrouped chondrites, and propose pairing, particularly in the case of CM and CV meteorites.  相似文献   

Field Tracer Test for the Design of LNAPL Source Zone Surfactant Flushing          下载免费PDF全文

Thomas Robert  Richard Martel  René Lefebvre  Jean‐Marc Lauzon  Annie Morin 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2016,36(2):68-82

A field tracer test was carried out in a light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) source zone using a well pattern consisting of one injection well surrounded by four extraction wells (5‐spot well pattern). Multilevel sampling was carried out in two observation wells located inside the test cell characterized by heterogeneous lithology. Tracer breakthrough curves showed relatively uniform flow within soil layers. A numerical flow and solute transport model was calibrated on hydraulic heads and tracer breakthrough curves. The model was used to estimate an average accessible porosity of 0.115 for the swept zone and an average longitudinal dispersivity of 0.55 m. The model was further used to optimize the relative effects of viscous forces versus capillary forces under realistic imposed hydraulic gradients and to establish optimal surfactant solution properties. Maximum capillary number (N_Ca) values between injection and extraction wells were obtained for an injection flow rate of 16 L/min, a total extraction flow rate of 20 L/min, and a surfactant solution with a viscosity of 0.005 Pa?s. The unconfined nature of the aquifer limited further flow rate or viscosity increases that would have led to unrealistic hydraulic gradients. An N_Ca range of 3.8 × 10^?4 to 7.6 × 10^?3 was obtained depending on the magnitude of the simulated LNAPL‐water interfacial tension reduction. Finally, surfactant and chase water slug sizing was optimized with a radial form of the simplified Ogata‐Banks analytical solution (Ogata and Banks 1961) so that injected concentrations could be maintained in the entire 5‐spot cell.  相似文献   

Suspended sediment delivery from small catchments to the Bay of Biscay. What are the controlling factors?          下载免费PDF全文

Ane Zabaleta  Iñaki Antiguedad  Irantzu Barrio  Jean‐Luc Probst 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(13):1894-1910

The transport and yield of suspended sediment (SS) in catchments all over the world have long been topics of great interest. This paper addresses the scarcity of information on SS delivery and its environmental controls in small catchments, especially in the Atlantic region. Five steep catchments in Gipuzkoa (Basque Country) with areas between 56 and 796 km² that drain into the Bay of Biscay were continuously monitored for precipitation, discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in their outlets from 2006 to 2013. Environmental characteristics such as elevation, slope, land‐use, soil depth and erodibility of the lithology were also calculated. The analysis included consideration of uncertainties in the SSC calibration models in the final suspended sediment yield (SSY) estimations. The total delivery of sediments from the catchments into the Bay of Biscay and its standard deviation was 272 200 ± 38 107 t yr.^?1, or 151 ± 21 t km^?2 yr.^?1, and the SSYs ranged from 46 ± 0.48 to 217 ± 106 t km^?2 yr.^?1. Hydroclimatic variables and catchment areas do not explain the spatial variability found in SSY, whereas land‐use (especially non‐native plantations) and management (human impacts) appear to be the main factors that control this variability. Obtaining long‐term measurements on sediment delivery would allow for the effects of environmental and human induced changes on SS fluxes to be better detected. However, the data provided in this paper offer valuable and quantitative information that will enable decision‐makers to make more informed decisions on land management while considering the effects of the delivery of SS. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献