Surge modelling in the eastern Irish Sea: present and future storm impact   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jenny M. Brown  Alejandro J. Souza  Judith Wolf 《Ocean Dynamics》2010,60(2):227-236

It is believed that, in the future, the intensity and frequency of extreme coastal flooding events may increase as a result of climate change. The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) project, Coastal Flooding by Extreme Events and EU FP7 Morphological Impacts and Coastal Risks Induced by Extreme Storm Events project are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea, an area that includes most of England’s coastal types. Using a previously modelled and validated historical extreme surge event, in November 1977, we now investigate the changes in peak surge as a result of possible future climate conditions. In order to simulate the surge, we have set up a one-way nested approach, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System 3D baroclinic model, from a domain covering the whole NW European continental shelf, through to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model; both areas are forced by tides, atmospheric pressure and winds. We use this modelling system to investigate the impact of enhanced wind velocities and increased sea levels on the peak surge elevation and residual current pattern. The results show that sea level rise has greater potential to increase surge levels than increased wind speeds.  相似文献   

A 4D sedimentological approach to reconstructing the flood frequency and intensity of the Rhône River (Lake Bourget,NW European Alps)     

J.-P. Jenny  B. Wilhelm  F. Arnaud  P. Sabatier  C. Giguet Covex  A. Mélo  B. Fanget  E. Malet  E. Ployon  M. E. Perga 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,51(4):469-483

A high-resolution sedimentological study of Lake Bourget was conducted to reconstruct the flood frequency and intensity (or magnitude) in the area over the last 350 years. Particular emphasis was placed on investigating the spatio-temporal distribution of flood deposits in this large lake basin. The thicknesses of deposits resulting from 30 flood events of the Rhône River were collected over a set of 24 short sediment cores. Deposit thicknesses were compared with instrumental data for the Rhône River discharge for the period from 1853 to 2010. The results show that flood frequency and intensity cannot be reliably reconstructed from a single core because of the inhomogeneous flood-deposit geometry in such a large lake. From all documented flood-deposit thicknesses, volumes of sediment brought into the lake during each flood event were computed through a Kriging procedure and compared with the historical instrumental data. The results show, in this study, that reconstructed sediment volumes are well correlated to maximal flood discharges. This significant correlation suggests that the increase of embankment and dam settlements on the Rhône River during the last 150 years has not significantly affected the transport of the smallest sediment fraction during major flood events. Hence, assessment of the flood-sediment volumes deposited in the large Lake Bourget is the only way to reliably reconstruct the flood frequency and intensity.  相似文献   

Modeling Ground Water Flow and Radioactive Transport in a Fractured Aquifer     

Greg Pohll  Ahmed E. Hassan  Jenny B. Chapman  Charalambos Papelis  Roko Andricevic 《Ground water》1999,37(5):770-784

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