Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather     

Paul Joe  Cliff Crozier  Norman Donaldson  Dave Etkin  Erik Brun  Steve Clodman 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):249-302

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.  相似文献   

Analysing temporal trends in the Indian Summer Monsoon and its variability at a fine spatial resolution     

J. M. A. Duncan  J. Dash  P. M. Atkinson 《Climatic change》2013,117(1-2):119-131

Temporal trends between 1951 and 2007 in annual Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation, frequency of severe drought years and onset date of ISM were analysed on a 0.25°?×?0.25° grid cell basis across India using APHRODITE daily gridded precipitation data. Locations which experienced temporal trends of increasing or decreasing inter-annual variation in annual ISM precipitation and onset date of ISM were detected using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. A new method of defining local onset of ISM from daily precipitation data was developed to enable countrywide temporal trend analysis of onset date. India was characterised by a heterogeneous spatial distribution in the magnitude of inter-annual variation and location of significant temporal trends in the examined facets of ISM precipitation. A greater extent of the country experienced significant trends (p?<?0.05) of increasing inter-annual variation rather than simple increasing or decreasing trends in annual ISM precipitation and onset date of ISM. Field significance tests showed grid cells reporting significant trends were significant (p?<?0.05) at the global or field level (except trends of increasing, i.e. later, ISM onset date). This research provides finer spatial detail regarding trends and variation in annual ISM precipitation, severe drought years and onset date of ISM complementing recent studies on trends in extreme precipitation events over India to produce a comprehensive overview of recent behaviour of ISM precipitation. These findings will benefit water managers charged with managing water resources sustainably at a fine spatial scale (the watershed or basin level).  相似文献   

Plaintiff Lawyers and Environmental Litigation     

Evan Nyer  Joe Darby 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2005,25(4):30-43

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The use of remotely sensed land cover to derive floodplain friction coefficients for flood inundation modelling     

M. D. Wilson  P. M. Atkinson 《水文研究》2007,21(26):3576-3586

Remotely sensed land cover was used to generate spatially‐distributed friction coefficients for use in a two‐dimensional model of flood inundation. Such models are at the forefront of research into the prediction of river flooding. Standard practice, however, is to use single (static) friction coefficients on both the channel and floodplain, which are varied in a calibration procedure to provide a “best fit” to a known inundation extent. Spatially‐distributed friction provides a physically grounded estimate of friction that does not require fitting to a known inundation extent, but which can be fitted if desired. Remote sensing offers the opportunity to map these friction coefficients relatively straightforwardly and for low cost. Inundation was predicted using the LISFLOOD‐FP model for a reach on the River Nene, UK. Friction coefficients were produced from land cover predicted from Landsat TM imagery using both ML and fuzzy c‐means classifiction. The elevetion data used were from combined contour and differential global positioning system (GPS) elevation data. Predicted inundation using spatially‐distributed and static friction were compared. Spatially‐distributed friction had the greatest effect on the timing of flood inundation, but a small effect on predicted inundation extent. The results indicate that spatially‐distributed friction should be considered where the timing of initial flooding (e.g. for early warning) is important. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

CLOSE RANGE TECHNIQUES AND MACHINE VISION     

K. B. Atkinson   《The Photogrammetric Record》1994,14(84):1001-1003

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A progress report on the design of the 8 m aperture Optical/Infrared Telescope     

B. Mack  D. Harman  S. Atkinson  C. Garcia 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1989,160(1-2):111-118

Progress of the design study carried out y the Instituto de Astrophysica de Canarias and Royal Greenwich Observatory joint project office for an 8 m aperture Optical/Infrared Telescope. This includes the development of an active pneumatic support system for both the radial and axial supports of an 8 m diameter thin meniscus mirror and the investigations of new technology encoding systems.Paper presented at the Symposium on the JNLT and Related Engineering Developments, Tokyo, November 29–December 2, 1988.  相似文献   

Stress corrosion and acoustic emission during tensile crack propagation in Whin Sill dolerite and other basic rocks   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

P. G. Meredith  B. K. Atkinson 《Geophysical Journal International》1983,75(1):1-21

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The GalileoJupiter Probe Doppler Wind Experiment     

Atkinson  D. H. 《Solar System Research》2001,35(5):354-375

The GalileoJupiter atmospheric entry probe was launched along with the Galileoorbiter spacecraft from Cape Canaveral in Florida, USA, on October 18, 1989. Following a cruise of greater than six years, the probe arrived at Jupiter on December 7, 1995. During its 57-minute descent, instruments on the probe studied the atmospheric composition and structure, the clouds, lightning, and energy structure of the upper Jovian atmosphere. One of the two radio channels over which the experiment data was transmitted to the orbiter was driven by an ultrastable oscillator. All motions of the probe and orbiter, including the speed of probe descent, Jupiter's rotation, and the atmospheric winds, contributed to a Doppler shift of the probe radio frequency. By accurately measuring the frequency of the probe radio signal, an accurate time history of the probe–orbiter relative motions could be reconstructed. Knowledge of the nominal probe and orbiter trajectories allowed the nominal Doppler shift to be removed from the probe radio frequency leaving a measurable frequency residual arising primarily from the zonal winds in Jupiter's atmosphere, and micromotions of the probe arising from probe spin, swing under the parachute, atmospheric turbulence, and aerodynamic effects. Assuming that the zonal horizontal winds dominate the residual probe motion, a profile of frequency residuals was generated. Inversion of the frequency residuals resulted in the first in situ measurements of the vertical profile of Jupiter's deep zonal winds. It is found that beneath 700 mb, the winds are strong and prograde, rising rapidly to 170 m/s between 1 and 4 bars. Beneath 4 bars to 21 bars, the depth at which the link with the probe was lost, the winds remain constant and strong. When corrections for the high temperatures encountered by the probe are considered, there is no evidence of diminishing or strengthening of the zonal winds in the deepest regions explored by the Galileoprobe. Following the wind recovery, the frequency residuals offer tantalizing clues to microstructure in the atmospheric dynamics, including turbulence and wave motion.  相似文献   

South China karst aquifer storm-scale hydrochemistry   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Liu Z  Groves C  Yuan D  Meiman J 《Ground water》2004,42(4):491-499

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Between coercion and consent: the politics of “Cooperative Governance” at a time of “Austerity Localism” in London     

Joe Penny 《Urban geography》2017,38(9):1352-1373

At a time of “austerity localism”, this paper explores how local authorities in London, England, are simultaneously addressing the dual pressures of delivering fiscal retrenchment and of enrolling citizens in new participatory public service arrangements, asking whether “these trends pull against one another, in opposite directions, or whether they are the tough and tender dimensions of a singular process: austerian management” Drawing on empirical research into the London Borough of Lambeth’s Cooperative Council agenda, as well as Foucauldian and Gramscian critiques of participatory network governance theories and practice, this paper shows how participatory forms of governance can be folded into the logic of hierarchy and coercion through various governmental technologies of performance and agency (consent), and through tactics of administrative domination (coercion). As budget cuts continue to affect local government in England, this paper concludes that although small experiments in participatory governance may persist, the dominant mode of governance is likely to shift towards more hierarchical and coercive forms.  相似文献