The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Narcisa G. Pricope  Gregory Husak  David Lopez-Carr  Christopher Funk  Joel Michaelsen 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1525-1541

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have substantially increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. We identify regions where substantial rainfall decrease between two periods interrupted by the 1998 El Nino event (1981–2012) in the East African Horn is coupled with human population density increases. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using AVHRR and MODIS vegetation products from 1981 to 2012, we observe changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn. We observe vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing reduced main-growing season precipitation; these areas are also concurrently experiencing increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation patterns only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes might be responsible for the observed declining vegetation condition. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, pointing to potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings may have implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends and increased climatic variability.  相似文献   

The Shear Testing Programme – I. Weak lensing analysis of simulated ground-based observations     

Catherine Heymans  Ludovic Van Waerbeke  David Bacon  Joel Berge  Gary Bernstein  Emmanuel Bertin  Sarah Bridle  Michael L. Brown  Douglas Clowe  Håkon Dahle  Thomas Erben  Meghan Gray  Marco Hetterscheidt  Henk Hoekstra  Patrick Hudelot  Mike Jarvis  Konrad Kuijken  Vera Margoniner  Richard Massey  Yannick Mellier  Reiko Nakajima  Alexandre Refregier  Jason Rhodes  Tim Schrabback  David Wittman 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,368(3):1323-1339

  相似文献   

First‐order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water–groundwater interactions: parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics‐based approach     

Brian A. Ebel  Benjamin B. Mirus  Christopher S. Heppner  Joel E. VanderKwaak  Keith Loague 《水文研究》2009,23(13):1949-1959

Distributed hydrologic models capable of simulating fully‐coupled surface water and groundwater flow are increasingly used to examine problems in the hydrologic sciences. Several techniques are currently available to couple the surface and subsurface; the two most frequently employed approaches are first‐order exchange coefficients (a.k.a., the surface conductance method) and enforced continuity of pressure and flux at the surface‐subsurface boundary condition. The effort reported here examines the parameter sensitivity of simulated hydrologic response for the first‐order exchange coefficients at a well‐characterized field site using the fully coupled Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). This investigation demonstrates that the first‐order exchange coefficients can be selected such that the simulated hydrologic response is insensitive to the parameter choice, while simulation time is considerably reduced. Alternatively, the ability to choose a first‐order exchange coefficient that intentionally decouples the surface and subsurface facilitates concept‐development simulations to examine real‐world situations where the surface‐subsurface exchange is impaired. While the parameters comprising the first‐order exchange coefficient cannot be directly estimated or measured, the insensitivity of the simulated flow system to these parameters (when chosen appropriately) combined with the ability to mimic actual physical processes suggests that the first‐order exchange coefficient approach can be consistent with a physics‐based framework. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Super-speed centrifugation at sea using a gimballed platform     

Anthony W. Young  Joel D. Cline 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1983,16(2):145-150

The use of a super-speed centrifuge at sea for the recovery of suspended solids or interstitial pore fluids requires a stabilizing platform. In this report, we describe a simple platform gimball and magnetic rotor stabilizer that have been fitted to a Sorvall model SS_?3 super-speed centrifuge. In principle, any centrifuge of comparable weight (86 kg) could be easily adapted for use at sea with gimbals of similar design.The magnetic rotor coupler is designed to eliminate rotor precession when the centrifuge is operated at sea. This attachment is particularly useful when the Sorvall SS_?3 (equipped with a conventional rotor) is used to recover interstitial pore fluids.  相似文献   

The angular dimensions of extragalactic radio sources     

Joel C. Carvalho 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1984,107(1):199-205

The angular dimensions of compact components of extragalactic radio sources are calculated theoretically on three hypotheses: (a) magnetic field and relativistic particles energy equipartition; (b) equilibrium between synchrotron and Compton losses; (c) radiative lifetime of the same order as the source's light-travel time. Using angular measurements of 73 radio components, divided into two groups (multicomponent and single-component sources), a correcting formulae is derived to reduce the theoretical values to the observed values.This work was partially supported by the Brasilian research agency CNPq.  相似文献   

Eleventh International Cartographic Conference     

Joel L. Morrison 《The Professional geographer》1983,35(1):95-95

  相似文献   

The synergistic powers of AEM and GIS geodatabase models in water resources studies     

Steward DR  Bernard EA 《Ground water》2006,44(1):56-61

Comprehensive studies of water resources systems require integration of modeling tools and data associated with individual processes. An object-oriented approach is presented here that associates ground water models based upon the analytic element method (AEM) with geographic information system (GIS) geodatabase features using an AEM Model Interface. Each aquifer object contains a prescribed geometry, a mathematical representation in the AEM, and GIS hydrogeologic data. The synergistic understanding inherent in such an approach is illustrated by a study linking local AEM model predictions of water elevation with ground water geodatabase objects. This AEM Model Interface provides a key component in establishing a common object-oriented geodatabase modeling approach linking ground water to a variety of natural and social processes.  相似文献   

Uniform head in horizontal and vertical wells   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Steward DR  Jin W 《Ground water》2006,44(1):86-90

The steady-state head within a fully penetrating well may be estimated by evaluating the Thiem equation at the radius of the well. A method is presented here to extend results from the Thiem equation to horizontal wells and to partially penetrating wells. The particular model used in this investigation is based upon the analytic element method; it accurately reproduces a boundary condition of uniform head along the cylindrical surface at the perforated face of the well. This model is exercised over a representative range of parameters including the well's length, radius, and pumping rate, and the aquifer's hydraulic conductivity and thickness. Results are presented in a set of figures and tables that compare the well's drawdown to the drawdown that would have been obtained using the Thiem solution with the same pumping rate and radius. A methodology is presented to estimate the head within a horizontal or partially penetrating well by adding a correction term to results that can be readily obtained from computer models of vertical fully penetrating wells. This approach may also be used to contrast the differences in head between horizontal and vertical wells of various lengths, radii, and placement elevations.  相似文献   

The middle Pleistocene transition: characteristics, mechanisms, and implications for long-term changes in atmospheric pCO₂   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peter U. Clark  David Archer  David Pollard  Joel D. Blum  Jose A. Rial  Victor Brovkin  Alan C. Mix  Nicklas G. Pisias  Martin Roy 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2006,25(23-24):3150

The emergence of low-frequency, high-amplitude, quasi-periodic (100-kyr) glacial variability during the middle Pleistocene in the absence of any significant change in orbital forcing indicates a fundamental change internal to the climate system. This middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) began 1250 ka and was complete by 700 ka. Its onset was accompanied by decreases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and tropical-ocean upwelling regions and by an increase in African and Asian aridity and monsoonal intensity. During the MPT, long-term average ice volume gradually increased by 50 m sea-level equivalent, whereas low-frequency ice-volume variability experienced a 100-kyr lull centered on 1000 ka followed by its reappearance 900 ka, although as a broad band of power rather than a narrow, persistent 100-kyr cycle. Additional changes at 900 ka indicate this to be an important time during the MPT, beginning with an 80-kyr event of extreme SST cooling followed by the partial recovery and subsequent stabilization of long-term North Atlantic and tropical ocean SSTs, increasing Southern Ocean SST variability primarily associated with warmer interglacials, the loss of permanent subpolar sea-ice cover, and the emergence of low-frequency variability in Pacific SSTs and global deep-ocean circulation. Since 900 ka, ice sheets have been the only component of the climate system to exhibit consistent low-frequency variability. With the exception of a near-universal organization of low-frequency power associated with marine isotope stages 11 and 12, all other components show an inconsistent distribution of power in frequency-time space, suggesting a highly nonlinear system response to orbital and ice-sheet forcing.Most hypotheses for the origin of the MPT invoke a response to a long-term cooling, possibly induced by decreasing atmospheric pCO₂. None of these hypotheses, however, accounts for the geological constraint that the earliest Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covered a similar or larger area than those that followed the MPT. Given that the MPT was associated with an increase in ice volume, this constraint requires that post-MPT ice sheets were substantially thicker than pre-MPT ice sheets, indicating a change in subglacial conditions that influence ice dynamics. We review evidence in support of the hypothesis that such an increase in ice thickness occurred as crystalline Precambrian Shield bedrock became exposed by glacial erosion of a thick mantle of regolith. This exposure of a high-friction substrate caused thicker ice sheets, with an attendant change in their response to the orbital forcing. Marine carbon isotope data indicate a rapid transfer of organic carbon to inorganic carbon in the ocean system during the MPT. If this carbon came from terrigenous sources, an increase in atmospheric pCO₂ would be likely, which is inconsistent with evidence for widespread cooling, Apparently rapid carbon transfer from terrestrial sources is difficult to reconcile with gradual erosion of regolith. A more likely source of organic carbon and nutrients (which would mitigate pCO₂ rise) is from shelf and upper slope marine sediments, which were fully exposed for the first time in millions of years in response to thickening ice sheets and falling sealevels during the MPT. Modeling indicates that regolith erosion and resulting exposure of crystalline bedrock would cause an increase in long-term silicate weathering rates, in good agreement with marine Sr and Os isotopic records. We use a carbon cycle model to show that a post-MPT increase in silicate weathering rates would lower atmospheric pCO₂ by 7–12 ppm, suggesting that the attendant cooling may have been an important feedback in causing the MPT.  相似文献   

Dust attenuation in hydrodynamic simulations of spiral galaxies     

Miguel Rocha  Patrik Jonsson  Joel R. Primack  T. J. Cox 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,383(4):1281-1291

  相似文献