Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate     

Yves Tramblay  Luc Neppel  Julie Carreau  Emilia Sanchez‐Gomez 《水文研究》2012,26(25):3934-3944

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The impact of highly permeable layer on hydraulic system in a coastal aquifer     

Kue‐Young Kim  Weon Shik Han  Eungyu Park 《水文研究》2013,27(22):3128-3138

This study is aimed to understand the hydraulic mechanism of coastal aquifer systems that include highly permeable layers (HPLs). These hydrologic conditions can be found in many volcanic islands that are composed of a series of lava flows discharged into sea or other standing body of water. In the first part, we developed a numerical model based on the geologic and hydrologic data obtained from the eastern Jeju Island, Korea, of which the aquifer contains clinker and hyaloclastite layers. The simulation results reproduced spatial location of fresh‐saline water interface, especially the abrupt decline of interface at the inland part and the thickness variation of transition zone along the cross‐section observed at the eastern Jeju coastal aquifer. We were able to find out that these phenomena are strongly related to the presence of the HPL. In the second part, quantitative analyses were conducted with the use of hypothetical models in order to understand the dynamic characteristics of coastal system that includes HPLs. A series of sensitivity studies were conducted to assess the effect of the horizontal length and vertical depth of HPL on the spatial location of the interface toe and the configuration of transition zone. Various case studies have shown that the seawater intruded into the inland more as the horizontal length of HPL was increased and its vertical depth was decreased. In other simulations including two HPLs, the vertical distance between these two HPLs primarily controlled the flow regime, flux variations, and the configuration of the transition zone. Finally, we performed simulations to evaluate the effect of a rising sea‐level. This study provides more understanding of how the presence of HPL controls the seawater intrusion processes, and the spatial configurations of fresh‐saline water interface at coastal aquifers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

An enhanced constitutive model for crushable granular materials     

Ali Daouadji  Pierre‐Yves Hicher 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2010,34(6):555-580

Studies in the past have tried to reproduce the mechanical behaviour of granular materials by proposing constitutive relations based on a common assumption that model parameters and parameters describing the properties, including gradation of individual grains are inevitably linked. However successful these models have proved to be, they cannot account for the changes in granular assembly behaviour if the grains start to break during mechanical loading. This paper proposes to analyse the relation between grading change and the mechanical behaviour of granular assembly. A way to model the influence of grain breakage is to use a critical state‐based model. The influence of the amount of grain breakage during loading, depending on the individual grain strength and size distribution, can be introduced into constitutive relations by means of a new parameter that controls the evolution of critical state with changes in grain size distribution. Experimental data from a calcareous sand, a quartz sand, and a rockfill material were compared with numerical results and good‐quality simulations were obtained. The main consequences of grain breakage are increased compressibility and a gradual dilatancy disappearance in the granular material. The critical state concept is also enriched by considering its overall relation to the evolution of the granular material. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Tephra stratigraphy on the North Icelandic shelf: extending tephrochronology into marine sediments off North Iceland     

Esther Ruth Gudmundsdóttir  Guðrún Larsen  Jón Eiríksson 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2012,41(4):719-734

Tephra stratigraphical and tephrochronological studies of marine core MD99‐2275 on the North Icelandic shelf have revealed 58 new tephra horizons within the last 7050 cal. a BP, bringing the total number of identified tephra layers to 76. So far, over 100 tephra layers have been identified in the entire core spanning the last 15 000 years. The majority of the newly identified tephra layers are basaltic in composition and originate from the most active volcanic systems in Iceland, namely Grímsvötn, Veidivötn‐Bárdarbunga and Katla. A total of 40 tephra layer land–sea correlations have been made within this time period, of which 16 represent absolutely dated tephra markers. In addition, two tephra marker series are revealed in the marine sediments and in the terrestrial tephra stratigraphy, located between c. 2300–2600 and between 5700–5900 years. For the last 15 000 years, 21 tephra markers have been recognized. The marine tephra layer frequency (TLF) reveals two peaks, within the last 2000 years, and between 5000 and 7000 years ago. It shows the same general characteristics as the terrestrial TLF curve in Iceland, which indicates that marine sediments can yield important information about volcanism in Iceland. This is useful in time segments in which terrestrial records are poor or non‐existent. The study contributes to a high‐resolution tephrochronological framework on the North Icelandic shelf, with core MD99‐2275 representing a potential stratotype section in the area, and for the northern North Atlantic–Nordic Seas region, as well as being an important contribution to the Lateglacial–early Holocene volcanic history of Iceland.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of ductile shear localization: Plastic‐flow network and slip‐line field     

Sheng‐zu Wang  Jun‐xiu Sun  Jie‐yuan Ning 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2008,32(3):307-324

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A steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach for sub‐daily flow disaggregation     

Kim‐Seong Tan  Francis H. S. Chiew  Rodger B. Grayson 《水文研究》2007,21(20):2807-2816

The estimation of sub‐daily flows from daily flood flows is important for many hydrological and hydraulic applications. Flows during flood events often vary significantly within sub‐daily time‐scales, and failure to capture the sub‐daily flood characteristic can result in an underestimation of the instantaneous flood peaks, with possible risk of design failure. It is more common to find a longer record of daily flow series (observed or modelled using daily rainfall series) than sub‐daily flow data. This paper describes a novel approach, known as the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach, for disaggregating daily flood flows into sub‐daily flows that takes advantage of the strong relationship between the standardized instantaneous flood peak and the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index. The strength of this relationship, which is considerably stronger than the relationship between the standardized flood peak and the event flood volume, is shown using data from six rivers flowing into the Gippsland Lakes in southeast Australia. The results indicate that the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach can be used to disaggregate modelled daily flood flows satisfactorily, but its reliability is dependent on a model's ability to simulate the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index and the event flood volume. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Simulation of probability distributions commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis     

Ke‐Sheng Cheng  Jie‐Lun Chiang  Chieh‐Wei Hsu 《水文研究》2007,21(1):51-60

Random variable simulation has been applied to many applications in hydrological modelling, flood risk analysis, environmental impact assessment, etc. However, computer codes for simulation of distributions commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis are not available in most software libraries. This paper presents a frequency‐factor‐based method for random number generation of five distributions (normal, log–normal, extreme‐value type I, Pearson type III and log‐Pearson type III) commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis. The proposed method is shown to produce random numbers of desired distributions through three means of validation: (1) graphical comparison of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and empirical CDFs derived from generated data; (2) properties of estimated parameters; (3) type I error of goodness‐of‐fit test. An advantage of the method is that it does not require CDF inversion, and frequency factors of the five commonly used distributions involves only the standard normal deviate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical study of soil heterogeneity effects on contaminant transport in unsaturated soil (model development and validation)     

M. Mousavi Nezhad  A. A. Javadi  A. Al‐Tabbaa  F. Abbasi 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(3):278-298

The movement of chemicals through soil to groundwater is a major cause of degradation of water resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. The study of the effects of different factors involved in transport phenomena can provide valuable information to find the best remediation approaches. Numerical models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing solute transport processes in soils and groundwater. This article presents the development of a stochastic finite element model for the simulation of contaminant transport through soils with the main focus being on the incorporation of the effects of soil heterogeneity in the model. The governing equations of contaminant transport are presented. The mathematical framework and the numerical implementation of the model are described. The comparison of the results obtained from the developed stochastic model with those obtained from a deterministic method and some experimental results shows that the stochastic model is capable of predicting the transport of solutes in unsaturated soil with higher accuracy than deterministic one. The importance of the consideration of the effects of soil heterogeneity on contaminant fate is highlighted through a sensitivity analysis regarding the variance of saturated hydraulic conductivity as an index of soil heterogeneity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Staurolite porphyroblast controls on local bulk compositional and microstructural changes during decompression of a St–Bt–Grt–Crd–And schist (Ancasti metamorphic complex,Sierras Pampeanas,W Argentina)     

S. O. VERDECCHIA  J. RECHE  E. G. BALDO  E. SEGOVIA‐DIAZ  F. J. MARTINEZ 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2013,31(2):131-146

The staurolite–biotite–garnet–cordierite–andalusite–plagioclase–muscovite–quartz metapelitic mineral assemblage has been frequently interpreted in the literature as a result of superimposition of various metamorphic events, for example, in polymetamorphic sequences. The assemblage was identified in schists from the Ancasti metamorphic complex (Sierras Pampeanas of Argentina) where previous authors have favoured the polymetamorphic genetic interpretation. A pseudosection in the MnNCKFMASH system for the analysed XRF bulk composition predicts the stability of the sub‐assemblage staurolite–biotite–garnet–plagioclase–muscovite–quartz, and the compositional isopleths also agree with measured mineral compositions. Nevertheless, the XRF pseudosection does not predict any field with staurolite, andalusite and cordierite being stable together. As a result of more detailed modelling making use of the effective bulk composition concept, our interpretation is that the staurolite–biotite–garnet–plagioclase–muscovite–quartz sub‐assemblage was present at peak metamorphic conditions, 590 °C and 5.2 kbar, but that andalusite and cordierite grew later along a continuous P–T path. These minerals are not in mutual contact and are observed in separate microstructural domains with different proportions of staurolite. These domains are explained as a result of local reaction equilibrium subsystems developed during decompression and influenced by the previous peak crystal size and local modal distribution of staurolite porphyroblasts that have remained metastable. Thus, andalusite and cordierite grew synchronously, although in separate microdomains, and represent the decompression stage at 565 °C and 3.5 kbar.  相似文献   

A virtual experiment technique on the elementary behaviour of granular materials with discrete element method     

Xia Li  Hai‐Sui Yu  Xiang‐Song Li 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(1):75-96

Multi‐scale investigations aided by the discrete element method (DEM) play a vital role for current state‐of‐the‐art research on the elementary behaviour of granular materials. Similar to laboratory tests, there are three important aspects to be considered carefully, which are the proper stress/strain definition and measurement, the application of target loading paths and the designed experiment setup, to be addressed in the present paper. Considering the volume sensitive characteristics of granular materials, in the proposed technique, the deformation of the tested specimen is controlled and measured by deformation gradient tensor involving both the undeformed configuration and the current configuration. Definitions of Biot strain and Cauchy stress are adopted. The expressions of them in terms of contact forces and particle displacements, respectively, are derived. The boundary of the tested specimen consists of rigid massless planar units. It is suggested that the representative element uses a convex polyhedral (polygonal) shape to minimize possible boundary arching effects. General loading paths are described by directly specifying the changes in the stress/strain invariants or directions. Loading can be applied in the strain‐controlled mode by specifying the translations and rotations of the boundary units, or in the stress‐controlled mode by using a servo‐control mechanism, or in the combination of the two methods to realize mixed boundary conditions. Taking the simulation results as the natural consequences originated from a complex system, virtual experiments provide particle‐scale information database to conduct multi‐scale investigations for better understanding in granular material behaviours and possible development of the constitutive theories provided the qualitative similarity between the simulation results from virtual experiments and observations on real material behaviour. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献