Impacts of Indian and Atlantic oceans on ENSO in a comprehensive modeling framework     

Pascal Terray  Sébastien Masson  Chloé Prodhomme  Mathew Koll Roxy  K. P. Sooraj 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(7-8):2507-2533

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Occurrence,durée et intensité des précipitations simulées par deux modèles régionaux canadiens du climat sur la région du Maghreb     

Mariem Jelassi  Philippe Gachon  René Laprise 《大气与海洋》2016,54(5):469-497

[Translated by the editorial staff] Simulating the precipitation regime of Northern Africa is challenging for regional climate models, particularly because of the strong spatial and temporal variability of rain events in the region. In this study we evaluate simulations conducted with two recent versions of regional climate models (RCM) developed in Canada: the CRCM5 and CanRCM4. Both are also used in the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX)-Africa. The assessment is based on the occurrence, duration, and intensity indices of daily precipitation in Maghreb during the fall and spring seasons from 1998 to 2008. We also examine the links between the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, weather systems, and the precipitation regime over the region. During the rainy season (September to February), the CRCM5 reproduces the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation adequately, as well as the occurrence of days with rain, while the CanRCM4 underestimates precipitation extremes. The study of links between weather systems and the precipitation regime shows that, along the Atlantic coast, precipitation (occurrence, intensity, and wet sequences) increases significantly with storm frequency in the fall. In winter, these links grow stronger going east, from the Atlantic coast to the Mediterranean coast. The negative phases of the NAO index are statistically associated with the increase in rain intensity, extremes, and accumulation along the Atlantic coast in the fall. However, the link weakens in winter over these regions and strengthens along the Mediterranean coast as the precipitation frequency rises during negative phases of the NAO. Both RCMs generally reproduce the links between the NAO and the precipitation regime well, regardless of location.  相似文献   

Assessment of the accuracy of global geodetic satellite laser ranging observations and estimated impact on ITRF scale: estimation of systematic errors in LAGEOS observations 1993–2014     

Graham Appleby  José Rodríguez  Zuheir Altamimi 《Journal of Geodesy》2016,90(12):1371-1388

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Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study     

Anabele Lindner  Cira Souza Pitombo  Samille Santos Rocha  José Alberto Quintanilha 《地球空间信息科学学报》2016,19(4):245-254

Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.  相似文献   

Local indices for the South American monsoon system and its impacts on Southeast Brazilian precipitation patterns     

David Marcolino Nielsen  Marcio Cataldi  André Luiz Belém  Ana Luiza Spadano Albuquerque 《Natural Hazards》2016,81(2):909-938

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Forecast model of allergenic hazard using trends of Poaceae airborne pollen over an urban area in SW Iberian Peninsula (Europe)     

Santiago Fernández-Rodríguez  Pablo Durán-Barroso  Inmaculada Silva-Palacios  Rafael Tormo-Molina  José María Maya-Manzano  Ángela Gonzalo-Garijo 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):121-137

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Twenty years of progresses in oceanic rogue waves: the role played by weakly nonlinear models     

Onorato  Miguel  Suret  Pierre 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(2):541-548

Here we discuss some of the progresses that have been made in the last 20 years in the field of oceanic rogue waves, focusing on the role played by leading order equations such as the nonlinear Schrödinger and the Korteweg-De Vries equations. For such equations, it is possible, as shown in Onorato et al. (Origin of heavy tail statistics in equations of the nonlinear Schrödinger type: an exact result, 2016. arXiv:1601.04317), to derive a very simple relation in which the variation of the third (for the KdV) and fourth (for the NLS) moment of the probability density function of the wave field can be related to the variation of the spectral bandwidth. These relations give some new perspectives on the formation of rogue waves in a random sea state.  相似文献   

A local-scale approach to estuarine flood risk management   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Paula Freire  Alexandre O. Tavares  Luís Sá  Anabela Oliveira  André B. Fortunato  Pedro P. dos Santos  Ana Rilo  João L. Gomes  João Rogeiro  Rui Pablo  Pedro J. Pinto 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(3):1705-1739

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Spatial distribution of crustaceans associated with shallow soft‐bottom habitats in a coral reef lagoon          下载免费PDF全文

Carlos Navarro‐Barranco  José M. Guerra‐García 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(1):77-87

The ecology and diversity of the shallow soft‐bottom areas adjacent to coral reefs are still poorly known. To date, the few studies conducted in these habitats dealing with macroinvertebrate fauna have focused on their abundance spatial patterns at high taxonomic levels. Thus, some aspects important to evaluate the importance and vulnerability of these habitats, such as species diversity or the degree of habitat specialization, have often been overlooked. In this study we compared the crustacean assemblages present in four different habitats at Magoodhoo Island coral reef lagoon (Maldives): coral rubble, sandy areas and two different seagrass species (Thalassia hemprichii and Cymodocea sp.). Forty‐two different crustacean species belonging to 30 families and four orders were found. ‘Site’ was a significant factor in all of the statistical analyses, indicating that tropical soft‐bottom habitats can be highly heterogeneous, even at a spatial scale between tens and hundreds of meters. Although traditionally it has been considered that seagrass beds host greater species diversity and abundance of organisms than adjacent unvegetated habitats, no differences in the univariate measures of fauna (abundance of organisms, number of species and Shannon diversity) were observed among habitats. However, sandy areas, coral rubble and seagrass beds exhibited different species composition of crustacean communities. The percentage of taxa considered as potential habitat specialists was 27% and the number of species exclusively occurring in one habitat was especially high in seagrass beds. Thus, degradation of this vegetated habitat would result in a great loss of biodiversity in tropical shallow soft‐bottom habitats.  相似文献   

Hydrographic Vertical Separation Surfaces (HyVSEPs) for the Tidal Waters of Canada     

Catherine Robin  Shannon Nudds  Phillip MacAulay  André Godin  Bodo De Lange Boom  Jason Bartlett 《Marine Geodesy》2016,39(2):195-222

Since the advent of Global Navigation Satellite Systems, it has been possible to perform hydrographic survey reductions through the ellipsoid, which has the potential to simplify operations and improve bathymetric products. This technique requires a spatially continuous separation surface connecting chart datum (CD) to a geodetic ellipsoid. The Canadian Hydrographic Service (CHS), with support from the Canadian Geodetic Survey, has developed a new suite of such surfaces, termed Hydrographic Vertical Separations Surfaces, or HyVSEPs, for CD and seven tidal levels. They capture the spatial variability of the tidal datum and levels between tide gauges and offshore using semiempirical models coupling observations at tide stations with relative sea-level rise estimates, dynamic ocean model solutions, satellite altimetry, and a geoid model. HyVSEPs are available for all tidal waters of Canada, covering over seven million square kilometers of ocean and more than 200,000 kilometers of shoreline. This document provides an overview of the CHS's modeling approach, tools, methods, and procedures.

The HyVSEP for CD defines the new hydrographic datum for the tidal waters of Canada. HyVSEPs for other tidal levels are fundamental for coastal studies, climate change adaptation and the definition of the Canadian shoreline and offshore boundaries. HyVSEPs for inland waters are not discussed.  相似文献