Climate change hotspots over South America: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 multi-model datasets     

Roger Rodrigues Torres  Jose Antonio Marengo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(3-4):579-587

This study identifies possible hotspots of climate change in South America through an examination of the spatial pattern of the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) over the region by the end of the twenty-first century. The RCCI is a qualitative index that can synthesize a large number of climate model projections, and it is suitable for identifying those regions where climate change could be more pronounced in a warmer climate. The reliability and uncertainties of the results are evaluated by using numerous state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) and forcing scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5. The results show that southern Amazonia and the central-western region and western portion of Minas Gerais state in Brazil are persistent climate change hotspots through different forcing scenarios and GCM datasets. In general, as the scenarios vary from low- to high-level forcing, the area of high values of RCCI increase and the magnitude intensify from central-western and southeast Brazil to northwest South America. In general, the climatic hotspots identified in this study are characterized by an increase of mean surface air temperature, mainly in the austral winter; by an increase of interannual temperature variability, predominantly in the austral summer; and by a change in the mean and interannual variability of precipitation during the austral winter.  相似文献   

Meteorological controls on particle growth events in Beltsville,MD, USA during July 2011     

Megan K. Payne  Everette Joseph  Ricardo Sakai  Jose D. Fuentes  William R. Stockwell 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2015,72(3-4):423-440

  相似文献   

Physically based evaluation of climate models over the Iberian Peninsula     

Carmen Sánchez de Cos  Jose M. Sánchez-Laulhé  Carlos Jiménez-Alonso  Juan M. Sancho-Avila  Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(7-8):1969-1984

A novel approach is proposed for evaluating regional climate models based on the comparison of empirical relationships among model outcome variables. The approach is actually a quantitative adaptation of the method for evaluating global climate models proposed by Betts (Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1673–1688, 2004). Three selected relationships among different magnitudes involved in water and energy land surface budgets are firstly established using daily re-analysis data. The selected relationships are obtained for an area encompassing two river basins in the southern Iberian Peninsula corresponding to 2 months, representative of dry and wet seasons. The same corresponding relations are also computed for each of the thirteen regional simulations of the ENSEMBLES project over the same area. The usage of a metric based on the Hellinger coefficient allows a quantitative estimation of how well models are performing in simulating the relations among surface magnitudes. Finally, a series of six rankings of the thirteen regional climate models participating in the ENSEMBLES project is obtained based on their ability to simulate such surface processes.  相似文献   

Heavy metal accumulation in the surficial sediments along southwest coast of India     

P. Udayakumar  J. Jean Jose  K. Anoop Krishnan  C. S. Ratheesh Kumar  M. N. Manju  P. M. Salas 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(6):1887-1900

Concentration and distribution of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn) in surface sediments collected from five stations located along the southwest coast of India were investigated seasonally to assess whether there is insidious buildup of heavy metals. Spatial variation was in accordance with textural characteristics and organic matter content. The concentration of the metals in sediments of the study area followed the order: Zn > Cr > Ni > Cu > Pb > Cd > Hg. The use of geochemical tools and sediment quality guidelines to account for the magnitude of heavy metal contamination revealed high contamination in monsoon and impoverishment during post-monsoon. Estimated total metal concentrations in the present investigation were comparable with other studies; however, concentrations of Ni and Zn were higher than that of other coastal regions. Concentrations of metals in sediment largely exceed NOAA effects range:low (e.g., Cu, Cr, Hg) or effects range:median (e.g., Ni) values. This means that adverse effects for benthic organisms are highly probable.  相似文献   

Water Content Ratio: An Effective Substitute for Liquidity Index for Prediction of Shear Strength of Clays   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Beshy Kuriakose  Benny Mathews Abraham  A. Sridharan  Babu T. Jose 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2017,35(4):1577-1586

Undrained shear strength of saturated clays is a very important property in geo-technical engineering practice. Since the collection of undisturbed samples and testing the same is difficult task and time consuming process, any attempt to obtain correlations between shear strength and consistency limits would be highly desirable. Several attempts have been made in the past to correlate shear strength with Liquidity index. The computation of Liquidity index involves the value of plastic limit determined by Casagrande thread rolling method; but the determination of the same is relatively a difficult task in geotechnical engineering practice especially so in less plastic soils. It has been shown that a good linear correlation exists between log of shear strength and water content ratio (ratio of water content to liquid limit). With the help of numerous experimental results, it could be established that water content ratio could replace the well-known parameter liquidity index to predict shear strength. This enables to eliminate the determination of the plastic limit. The relation between water content ratio and liquidity index depends on the liquid limit to plastic limit ratio, irrespective of the geological origin of the soil.  相似文献   

Air–Water CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Fluxes and Net Ecosystem Production Changes in a Baja California Coastal Lagoon During the Anomalous North Pacific Warm Condition     

Ma Carmen Ávila-López  J. Martín Hernández-Ayón  Víctor F. Camacho-Ibar  Armando Félix Bermúdez  Adan Mejía-Trejo  Isaí Pacheco-Ruiz  Jose M. Sandoval-Gil 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(3):792-806

The present study examines the temporal variability of air–water CO₂ fluxes (FCO₂) and seawater carbonate chemistry in a Baja California coastal lagoon during an exceptionally warm anomaly that was developed in Northeast Pacific coasts during 2014. This oceanographic condition led to a summer-like season (weak upwelling condition) during the study period, which reached a maximum surface temperature anomaly of 2 °C in September 2014. San Quintín Bay acts as a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere in 2014 (3.3 ± 4.8 mmol C m^?2 day^?1) with the higher positive fluxes mainly observed in summer months (9.0 ± 5.3 mmol C m^?2 day^?1). Net ecosystem production (NEP) switched seasonally between net heterotrophy and net autotrophy during the study period, with an annual average of 2.2 ± 7.1 mmol C m^?2 day^?1, which indicates that San Quintín Bay was a net autotrophic system during the atypical warm oceanographic condition in 2014. This pattern of seasonal variations in the carbon balance at San Quintín Bay appears to be linked to the life cycle of benthic communities, which play an important role in the whole-ecosystem metabolism. Under the limited input from external sources coupled with an increase in seawater temperatures, the recycled benthic carbon and nutrient fluxes play a major role to sustain water-column processes within the bay. Since the upwelling condition may influence the magnitude of the air–water CO₂ fluxes, our results clearly indicated that San Quintín Bay is a net source of carbon to the atmosphere regardless of the adjacent oceanic conditions. Our study sheds light on the carbon dynamics and its metabolic implications in a shallow coastal ecosystem under a regional warm anomaly and contributes potentially relevant information in view of the likely future scenario of global climate change.  相似文献   

Assessment of the distribution of sponge chips in the sediment of East Pacific Ocean reefs          下载免费PDF全文

Jose Luis Carballo  Humberto Ovalle‐Beltrán  Benjamin Yáñez  Eric Bautista‐Guerrero  Héctor Nava‐Bravo 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(1)

Sponges are one of the principal agents of bioerosion and sediment production in coral reefs. They generate small carbonate chips that can be found in the sediments, and we investigated whether these could provide a means for assessment of bioerosion applicable to reef monitoring. We tested this hypothesis on samples from 12 Mexican coral reefs distributed along the Pacific coast, where boring sponges were particularly abundant, and quantified the amount of chips in samples of superficial sediment in three grain‐size fractions: fine (<44 μm), medium (44–210 μm) and coarse (>210 μm). The grain‐size distribution varied among reefs, with the majority of the sediment of most reefs being composed of coarse sands, and the medium and fine fractions dominating only at La Entrega and Playa Blanca. All the reefs presented clear evidence of bioerosion by sponges, with the characteristic chips present in the sediment, although at most sites the percentage of chips was very low (from 1% to 3% of the total sediment). Only at La Entrega and Playa Blanca did they constitute a significant fraction of the total sediment (18% and 16%, respectively). While not statistically significant, there was an interesting trend between sponge chips versus sponge abundance that suggests that quantification of the chips in the sediment could be used as a proxy for sponge erosion of the entire community, which cannot be estimated in by laboratory experiments. However, while this methodology could provide an integrated approach to monitor sponge bioerosion, more studies are necessary due to the influence of environmental factors on the transport and deposition of these chips.  相似文献   

Alternative stable states in mountain forest ecosystems: the case of European larch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Larix decidua</Emphasis>) forests in the western Alps     

Jose V. Moris  Giorgio Vacchiano  Davide Ascoli  Renzo Motta 《山地科学学报》2017,14(5):811-822

European larch (Larix decidua) forests of the western Alps form extensive cultural landscapes whose resilience to global changes is currently unknown. Resilience describes the capacity of ecological systems to maintain the same state, i.e., the same function, processes, structure, and composition despite disturbances, environmental changes and internal fluctuations. Our aim is to explore the resilience of larch forests to changes in climate and land use in the western Italian Alps. To do so, we examined whether larch forests can be described as an alternative stable state in mountain forest ecosystems. We used tree basal area data obtained from field forest inventories in combination with topography, forest structure, land use, and climate information. We applied three different probabilistic methods: frequency distributions, logistic regressions, and potential analyses to infer the resilience of larch forests relative to that of other forest types. We found patters indicative of alternative stable states: bimodality in the frequency distribution of the percent of larch basal area, and the presence of an unstable state, i.e., mixed larch forests, in the potential analyses. We also found: (1) high frequency of pure larch forests at high elevation, (2) the probability of pure larch forests increased mostly with elevation, and (3) pure larch forests were a stable state in the upper montane and subalpine belts. Our study shows that the resilience of larch forests may increase with elevation, most likely due to the altitudinal effect on climate. Under the same climate conditions, land use seems to be the main factor governing the dominance of larch forests. In fact, subalpine larch forests may be more resilient, and natural succession after land abandonment, e.g., towards Pinus cembra forests, seems slower than in montane larch forests. In contrast, in the upper montane belt only intense land use regimes characterized by open canopies and forest grazing may maintain larch forests. We conclude that similar approaches could be applied in other forest ecosystems to infer the resilience of tree species.  相似文献