Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

On the tidal variation of the geopotential     

José M. Ferrándiz  Juan Getino 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):279-292

In this paper analytical expressions are derived for the temporal variations ofJ ₂ andJ ₂₂ due to the tides of the solid Earth, taking into account only the deformation of the mantle, and employing a procedure already used by the authors in their Hamiltonian theory of the Earth's rotation, which obtain the necessary parameters in a direct way by integration of those provided by a selected model of Earth interior.Numerical tables giving the periodic variation of coefficients are given, as well as a new prediction for UT1. For J ₂ and J ₂₂ the amplitudes reach such a magnitude that both two variations should not be ignored in studies involving the analysis of highly precise satellite tracking data. Moreover, the possibility of improving our knowledge of the value of those harmonic coefficients in only a more exact digit appears as to be strongly dependent on the limitations in the theoretical modeling of the variations of the inertia tensor due to solid tides.  相似文献   

The enigma of helium and anomalous xenon     

Oliver K. Manuel 《Icarus》1980,41(2):312-315

Isotopically anomalous xenon in chondrites is closely associated with low-Z noble gases, but there is no helium (or neon) in the noble gas component with normal xenon. The correlation of elemental and isotopic heterogeneities in meteoritic noble gases places stringent limits on the origin of isotopically anomalous elements in meteorites and on the formation of the solar system.  相似文献   

Chemical aspects of iron oxide coagulation in water: Laboratory studies and implications for natural systems     

Liyuan Liang  James J. Morgan 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1990,52(1):32-55

Initial coagulation rates of colloidal hematite (-Fe₂O₃) particles (diameter less than 0.1 µm) were measured experimentally in well-defined laboratory systems at constant temperature. The relative stability ratio,W, was obtained at various ionic strengths in NaCl medium and at pH values in the range from 3 to 12. ExperimentalW values ranged from 1 to 10⁴ in various systems. The results delineate the roles ofspecific andgeneralized coagulation mechanisms for iron oxides. Among the specifically-interacting species (G _ads ⁰ >G _coul ⁰ ) studied were phosphate, monomeric organic acids of various structures, and polymeric organic acids. The critical coagulation-restabilization concentrations of specifically-interacting anions (from 10^–7 to 10^–4 molar) can be compared with the general effects of non-specific electrolyte coagulants (10^–3 to 10^–1 molar). The laboratory results are interpreted with the help of a Surface Complex Formation/Diffuse Layer Model (SCF/DLM) which describes variations of interfacial charge and potential resulting from variations of coagulating species in solution. Comparison of these laboratory experiments with observations on iron behavior in estuarine and lake waters aids in understanding iron removal mechanisms and coagulation time scales in natural systems.  相似文献   

1980²000北京市农业土地生产性的变动分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王鹏飞  鲁奇  傅桦  李娟 《地理研究》2006,25(4):719-729

根据1980、1990、2000年的统计资料和实地走访观察,本文分析了北京市乡镇一级的粮食作物、蔬菜作物和果品作物的分布格局及农业土地生产性近20年的变化。研究认为:1980年北京农业生产分布格局与土地生产性为比较典型的杜能模式;随着农业经营的多样化,1990年和2000年北京农业土地生产性呈现出多样的分布格局;北京粮食作物、蔬菜作物、果品作物的分布格局及农业土地生产性近20年的变化与此阶段的农业生产政策、农业以外的社会经济活动变化有较强的关联性;对北京以上问题的研究为验证杜能、辛克利亚、布莱昂特城市周边农业地域研究经典理论的演变提供了实证案例。  相似文献   

Structural similarity and variety at the tips in a wide range of strike–slip faults: a review     

Young‐Seog Kim  David J. Sanderson 《地学学报》2006,18(5):330-344

Strike–slip faults are often accompanied by a variety of structures, particularly at their tips. The zones of additional fracturing are classified as tip‐damage zones. These zones can be subdivided into several different damage patterns based on the nature and orientation of faults and fractures developed. Damage zones at the ends of small strike–slip faults (mode II tips) develop wing cracks, horsetail splays, antithetic faults, synthetic branch faults and solution surfaces. Similar tip‐damage patterns are also commonly observed at larger (regional) scales, but with a dominance of faulting over tensile cracks and solution surfaces. Wing cracks and horsetail splays developed at small‐scale faults are replaced by normal faults in large‐scale faults. Antithetic faults and synthetic branch faults are observed at small and large scales. Thrust faults are developed at large scales, in a similar pattern to solution surfaces at a small scale. All these structures may show slightly different angular relationships to the master fault at small and large scale, but develop in response similar stress distribution and mechanics around the fault. Thus, mode II tip‐damage zones show similar patterns over a wide range of fault scales.  相似文献   

Rodent paleofaunas as indicators of climatic change in Europe during the last 125,000 years     

Manuel Hernández Fernández 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(2):308-323

This paper presents a quantitative reconstruction of the European late Pleistocene paleoclimate based on 72 rodent assemblages of five sequences from France, Germany and Bulgaria, covering the last interglacial-glacial cycle. They show a pattern of severe changes in temperature, with reduced precipitation during the coldest periods. A tentative correlation between the isotopic and palynological records and the paleotemperature changes is shown. These changes are consistent with variations in atmospheric circulation patterns in response to an expanding-retracting Fennoscandian ice-sheet. They can be attributed to the enhancement-weakening of the Scandinavian-Polar anticyclone and its associated dry winds, the south-north shifting of the North Atlantic Polar Front, and the varying supply of moist air from the Atlantic. Qualitative paleoenvironmental analysis shows broadleaved-deciduous forests in France and Bulgaria during most of the studied period. Taiga and tundra appeared in eastern France during the lower Würm. The German sequence indicates the presence of coniferous forests. These results are broadly consistent with other paleobiological records (mammalian, avian and insect faunas, isotopic record in dental tissue, palynology). The main discrepancies with the paleoclimate inferred from the palynological record are found during the coldest periods and are probably due to the interaction between vegetation, climate, and atmospheric CO₂ levels.  相似文献   

Modeling the seismic response of basin-edge structure by a sequential waveform method     

Lian-Feng Zhao  Wei-Min Wang  Juan Li  Zhen-Xing Yao 《Tectonophysics》2006,420(3-4):493-507

A sequential waveform method is developed to simulate the seismic response of basin-edge structure excited by a plane incident P-wave. The full procedure involves: (a) a previous parameterization of the investigated model using the seismic wave velocities and depths of the sedimentary stratifications; (b) an input motion determined from the records at stations installed on hard rock; (c) forward computation of the P-SV elastic wave field by means of a two-dimensional finite difference (FD) method; (d) the optimization of the model vector using simulated annealing technique and comparing the simulated seismic response of the tested structure with the observed wave field; (e) the correction of the initial model by trial-and-error by testing the differences between synthetics and observed data, and (f) the final solution obtained by iteration using the conjugate gradient algorithm. The search of an optimal basin-edge model has been parallel processed by varying the shapes and velocities of strata on the basis of the fitting of relative timing, amplitude and phase between the output and the observed data. The input motion and sensitivity have been checked and the validity of the method has been demonstrated by numeric analysis. Using the teleseismic records generated by 7 earthquakes recorded at 26 broadband seismic stations, we have studied the seismic velocity structure of the southern edge of the Jiyang depression located in the Bohai Bay basin, northern China. Two cross sections show an agreement between the velocity results and the geological sections available in the region. In addition, we obtain evidence of three hidden faults under the sections and features that suggest major extensions at the Paleogene.  相似文献   

Food Deserts in the Prairies? Supermarket Accessibility and Neighborhood Need in Edmonton,Canada*     

Karen E. Smoyer‐Tomic  John C. Spence  Carl Amrhein 《The Professional geographer》2006,58(3):307-326

The U.S. and U.K. literatures have discussed “food deserts,” reflecting populated, typically urban, low‐income areas with limited access to full‐service supermarkets. Less is known about supermarket accessibility within Canadian cities. This article uses the minimum distance and coverage methods to determine supermarket accessibility within the city of Edmonton, Canada, with a focus on high‐need and inner‐city neighborhoods. The results show that for 1999 both of these areas generally had higher accessibility than the remainder of the city, but six high‐need neighborhoods had poor supermarket accessibility. We conclude by examining potential reasons for differences in supermarket accessibility between Canadian, U.S., and U.K. cities.  相似文献   

Geothermal evidence for fluid flow through the gas hydrate stability field off Central Chile—transient flow related to large subduction zone earthquakes?     

Ingo Grevemeyer  Norbert Kaul  Juan L. Diaz-Naveas 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):461-468

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