Reasoning about climate uncertainty     

Judith Curry 《Climatic change》2011,108(4):723-732

This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence. A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminate bias from the consensus building process itself.  相似文献   

Anisotropic Closure in Squeezing Rocks: The Example of Saint-Martin-la-Porte Access Gallery     

The Manh Vu  Jean Sulem  Didier Subrin  Nathalie Monin  Judith Lascols 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2013,46(2):231-246

In this paper, we analyse the convergence measurements recorded in a gallery excavated in severely squeezing ground. The procedure consists in a preliminary geometrical treatment of the raw data to evaluate the principal axes of deformation by assuming an elliptic deformation of the walls of the gallery. Then the convergence law proposed by Sulem et al. (Int J Rock Mech Min Sci Geomech Abstr 24(3):145–154, 1987a), which is extended to account for anisotropic closure, is fitted on the displacements along the two axes of the obtained ellipse. This procedure is more robust and relevant than fitting the convergence recorded on the most deforming segment or fitting the average value of the convergence along the various segments. An attempt is made to correlate the amount and the direction of anisotropic deformation with the lithology and some geological features described by the dominant discontinuity families.  相似文献   

Trace-element study and age dating of zircon from chromitites of the Bushveld Complex (South Africa)     

Marina Yudovskaya  Judith Kinnaird  Anthony J. Naldrett  Nickolay Rodionov  Anton Antonov  Sergey Simakin  Dmitry Kuzmin 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,107(6):915-942

The layered Bushveld Complex hosts a number of chromitite layers, which were found to contain significant amounts of zircon grains compared with adjacent silicate rocks. Cathodoluminescent-dark, partially metamict cores and transparent rims of composite zircon grains were analyzed for trace elements with SIMS and LA-ICPMS techniques. The cores are enriched in REE, Y, Th and U and are characterized by distinctly flatter REE patterns in contrast to those of the rims and transparent homogenous crystals. Zircon from the different stratigraphic units has specific Th/U ratios, the highest of which (1.5–4) occurs in a Merensky Reef zircon core. The Ti content of Bushveld zircon ranges from 12 to 52 ppm correlating to a crystallization temperature range of 760–930 °C. The geochemical characteristics of the first zircon generation are consistent with its high-temperature crystallization as the first major U, Th and REE acceptor from a highly-evolved residue of the high-Mg basalt magma, whereas the rims and coreless crystals have crystallized from percolating intercumulus liquid of new influx of the same magma. U-Pb SHRIMP dating of zircon cores and rims does not reveal a distinguishable difference between their ages indicating the absence of inherited zircon. Concordia ages of 2,051?±?9 Ma (2σ, MSWD?=?0.1) and 2,056?±?5 Ma (2σ, MSWD?=?0.05) for zircons from the Merensky Reef and the Upper Platreef located equally near the top of the Critical Zone are in agreement with published ages for the Merensky Reef. Zircon from the deeper-seated Lower Group, Middle Group and Lower Platreef chromitites yields younger concordia ages that may reflect prolonged late-stage volatile activity.  相似文献   

Geothermal energy systems: research perspective for domestic energy provision   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ernst Huenges  Thomas Kohl  Olaf Kolditz  Judith Bremer  Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth  Thomas Vienken 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(8):3927-3933

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Characterization of Damage in Sandstones along the Mojave Section of the San Andreas Fault: Implications for the Shallow Extent of Damage Generation     

Ory Dor  Judith S. Chester  Yehuda Ben-Zion  James N. Brune  Thomas K. Rockwell 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2009,166(10-11):1747-1773

Following theoretical calculations that suggest shallow generation of rock damage during an earthquake rupture, we measure the degree of fracture damage in young sedimentary rocks from the Juniper Hills Formation (JHF) that were displaced 21 km along the Mojave section of San Andreas Fault (SAF) and were not exhumed significantly during their displacement. In exposures adjacent to the fault, the JHF typically displays original sedimentary fabrics and little evidence of bulk shear strain at the mesoscopic scale. The formation is, however, pervasively fractured at the microscopic scale over a zone that is about a 100 m wide on the southwest side of the SAF near Little Rock. The abundance of open fractures, the poor consolidation, and the shallow inferred burial depth imply that the damage was generated close to the surface of the Earth. The spatial correlation of this damage with a seismically active trace of the SAF suggests that it was generated by SAF slip events that by assumption were of a seismic nature throughout the displacement history of the JHF. Thus the JHF provides a very shallow upper bound for the generation of brittle damage in a seismic fault zone. The fracture fabric is characterized by preferred orientations of fractures that split grains between contact points and is consistent with overall deformation under directed compression. However, the available results cannot be used to distinguish between proposed off-fault damage mechanisms. Fracture orientations are compatible with a maximum compressive stress oriented at a high angle to the fault at about 10 m, and at a lower, more variable angle farther away from the fault. The fracture distribution and fabric are consistent with observations made of the microscale damage characteristics of the Hungry Valley Formation in the northwestern section of the SAF in the Mojave, and with previous observations of exhumed, ancestral strands of the SAF.  相似文献   

Rare earth elements in sediments of the Vigo Ria,NW Iberian Peninsula     

Ricardo Prego  Miguel Caetano  Carlos Vale  Judith Marmolejo-Rodríguez 《Continental Shelf Research》2009

The abundance and distribution of rare earth elements (REE) and their signatures in the Vigo Ria were studied from 50 samples of surface sediments and related to the geological formation in its watershed. The total amount of REE in the Ria is heterogeneous. It ranges from 220 mg kg⁻¹ in the southern middle Ria margin in the vicinity of the Galiñeiro geological shore complex, which contains REE-enriched minerals, to 2 mg kg⁻¹ near the Ria mouth due to dilution with high levels of carbonated biogenic particles (31% of Ca). Rare earth elements of the Ria sediments are considerably enriched in light-REE relative to heavy-REE (a LREE/HREE ratio of 9.7±1.6) and also show a slightly negative Eu-anomaly. Low European shale normalised REE patterns were distinguished in the innermost sediments of Vigo Ria, but were not correlated with Al. This suggests a minor contribution of REE from upstream freshwater inputs to the sediments in the middle Vigo Ria zone. Normalised REE ratios in the middle Ria imply that fine particles enriched in REE may be exported from the Ria to shelf mud patches and REE can be useful as sediment tracers of Ria input on the shelf.  相似文献   

Gentrifier,by John Joe Schlichtman,Jason Patch,and Marc Lamont Hill     

Judith R. Halasz 《Urban geography》2019,40(1):160-162

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Ecometrics and the paleoecological implications of Pleistocene faunas from the western coastal plains of the Cape Floristic Region,South Africa     

J. Tyler Faith  David R. Braun  Benjamin Davies  Larisa R. G. DeSantis  Matthew J. Douglass  Irene Esteban  Vincent Hare  Naomi E. Levin  Julie Luyt  Robyn Pickering  Mitchell J. Power  Judith Sealy  Deano Stynder 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(8):1007-1020

The Pleistocene ungulate communities from the western coastal plains of South Africa's Cape Floristic Region (CFR) are diverse and dominated by grazers, in contrast to the region's Holocene and historical faunas, which are relatively species-poor and dominated by small-bodied browsers and mixed feeders. An expansion of grassy habitats is clearly implied by the Pleistocene faunas, but the presence of ruminant grazers that cannot survive the summer dry season typical of the region today suggests other important paleoecological changes. Here we use dental ecometrics to explore the paleoecological implications of the region's Pleistocene faunas. We show that the dental traits (hypsodonty and occlusal topography) of the ungulates that occurred historically in the CFR track annual and summer aridity, and we use these relationships to reconstruct past aridity. Our results indicate that the Pleistocene faunas signal paleoenvironments that were on average less arid than today, including during the summer, consistent with other lines of evidence that suggest a higher water table and expansion of well-watered habitats. Greater water availability can be explained by lower temperature and reduced evapotranspiration during cooler phases of the Pleistocene, probably coupled with enhanced groundwater recharge due to increased winter precipitation.  相似文献   

Assessment of present and future nitrogen loads, water quality, and seagrass (Thalassia testudinum) depth distribution in Lemon Bay, Florida     

David A. Tomasko  Denise L. Bristol  Judith A. Ott 《Estuaries and Coasts》2001,24(6):926-938

Nitrogen loads into Lemon Bay, Florida were modeled to have increased ca. 59% between pre-development (i.e., 1850) estimates (5.3 kg TN ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. and estimates for the year 1995 (8.4 kg TN ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). By the year 2010, nitrogen loads are predicted to increase an additional 45% or 58%, depending upon progress being made toward replacing older septic tank systems with centralized sewerage (nitrogen loads of 12.2 and 13.3 kg TN ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively). Using 1995 estimates, nonpoint sources (stormwater runoff) are throught to be responsible for ca. 76% of the annual nitrogen load, followed by septic tank systems (14%), rainfall (10%), and an insignificant load from baseflow. Based on an empirically-derived nitrogen load:chlorophylla relationship developed for a portion of nearby Tampa Bay, a 45% increase in nitrogen loads into Lemon Bay could result in a 29% increase in annual average chlorophylla concentrations. Using the estimate of a 29% increase in future chlorophylla concentrations, an empirically-derived optical model for Lemon Bay suggests that light attenuation coefficients in the bay would increase ca. 9%, and the average depth limit ofThalassia testudinum in Lemon Bay would decrease by ca. 24%.  相似文献   

Ageing research in Australia: reflecting on Graeme Hugo’s four decades of contribution     

Debbie Faulkner  Helen Barrie Feist  Judith Lewis 《The Australian geographer》2016,47(4):399-415

ABSTRACT

Globally, population ageing is one of the most pressing social and policy issues faced today. Over the next two decades, Australian society will face dramatic increases in the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over, as the baby boomers move into older age and fertility levels remain low. Yet population ageing is not a surprising or new trend—demographic changes in the age profile of a population tend to occur incrementally rather than suddenly. As a demographer and geographer, Graeme Hugo drew attention to this trend in Australia’s population more than three decades ago. Throughout Graeme Hugo’s vast breadth of work over the past 40 years, there has been a consistent thread of demographic analysis and academic thought associated with the ageing of Australia’s population. This paper focuses on Hugo’s contributions to academic thought and policy on Australia’s ageing population and the challenges associated with this for both service delivery and health policy as Australian society moves into an unprecedented era of population ageing.  相似文献